Mohan 20/11/03
Enviado: 20/11/2003 11:14Look to sell early rallies on a higher opening today during the mid morning session. If prices drop quickly during the first 30 minutes of trading then we should see a move higher off those lows for an up day.
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, November 19, 2003:
Sell at 1038.00/ Cover the short for 3-4 point loss.
*Sell BreakOut at 1038.00. 6 point stop NOT HIT (missed stop by one tick). Later drop into final hour around 1041-42 to cover short for small loss.
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thanks for joining with us today on the Morning Call.
After 4 days down the market decided to recover some on Wednesday and not give us any pullback off the BreakOut. On our Headline Call we were looking for the early rally to occur giving us the higher prices but we were expecting the market to resume the drop lower moving towards our lower goal of 1021.00 to finish off an aberration pattern.
This was not to be the case on Wednesday as the market opened up slightly, pulled back a dab, and then proceeded to "hang up" near the highs for most of the day. Later in the final 2 hours of the session prices pushed up higher reaching for our stop at 1044.00 but missing it BY A TICK. Whew! That was close....but it gave us a chance to cover this short trade with a small 3-4 point loss.
So although it was a grind and our Headline Call didn't pan out according to plan today it was no big deal as we simply had a small loss on the day.
To those of you who are new to futures trading Wednesday's trade may have seemed like a big, dramatic deal. Sure it was a grind but really it was rather routine in the business. It was simply just a day where the market had been down for 4 days and had exhausted itself to the downside. So prices "Hung up" near the highs and pushed a bit higher. Buying the BreakOut would not have produced an 8 point trade on that side either so it was really just "one of those days".
This is how the S&P500 trading business can be often. There are those beautiful, perfect days where you Sell the BreakOut and "down they go" in a few hours giving us our 8 points and other days where you grind a bit.
Now, if you expect "perfect 8 point days" to happen everyday in this business YOU ARE IN FOR A BIG SURPRISE. That is NOT how the futures business works. And even worse, if because the market ACTS CONVOLUTED OR CONFUSING for a few days that you get all upset and assume there is something wrong with Mohan or the TCF methods then you need to get a clue.
This business is for HIGHLY MATURE AND PATIENT HUMAN BEINGS. This business is not a place for "perfectionists" or high strung people. This is S&P500 FUTURES TRADING...The fastest and riskiest game in town. If you can't take the normal heat of a day like Wednesday or Monday's action and you go crazy if you get stopped out...then this business may not be for you. It's as simple as that.
That would be like joining the Marines, training your butt off and then the minute you are under REAL GUNFIRE IN BATTLE start blaming the General for "getting you into this mess". We are S&P500 soldiers and sometimes we are going to have to work a little harder when things aren't as clear.
So on Wednesday we saw the market hit the BreakOut right after the first hour had completed and the High Five were neutral at first but then kept moving into more bullish setups with the TRIN dropping below .90 and NAZ pushing higher.
Chalk it up to experience and get ready to sell em again today.
Today's Call & Briefing:
On today's Headline Call we are going to be looking for one of two scenarios to unfold to give us hints of what side of the market we want to trade on.
First, if we see prices open higher and move up then we are going to be quite confident selling the higher prices. We would expect the prices to hold up into the mid morning session at least and possibly into the 1:30est time frame.
If the prices drop rapidly off the opening area or in the first 30 minutes or so then we are going to be looking for the market to move higher again. We were expecting the prices to start moving towards 1021.00 area to polish off a pattern before heading higher BUT Tuesday's 1031.00 low area may have done it. It's a bit difficult to say at this point. Today's opening and first half hour to one hour of movement will give us the clues.
Our Market Force indicators are in Buy Mode as most of you may recall. We were expecting and got the aberration with the down cycle we have been in. We had expected that down aberration on the Buy Mode (temporary) to reach down to 1021 and the low so far has been 1031.30 (Big S&P500).
Now for today, if we see the prices HOLDING ABOVE THE OPENING PRICE then we are most likely going to Cross Over the Pit Bull and start heading back up again reaching first for 1051.00, then back to make a new high for the month on the way to 1081.00.
Now, remember, these numbers can change when I get the signal off the closing numbers I use to calcuate this. I can't help but get the feeling that we are going to head down FIRST before resuming upwards BUT I do not want to "read into" the Market Force indicators too much. It is not only unnecessary as we are Day Traders and it doesn't really matter which direction they go but also because we don't NEED TO KNOW to make money with the TCF setups.
So here we go:
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Let's look to sell the BreakOut again today if that is the first Hour One pivot hit. Look for the TRIN to be above 1.00 ideally and NAZ weak but with the Dow giving the appearance of a rally.
Watch for a full on BreakOut Buy with the TRIN lower below .80 and the NAZ up +12-15 or more with the Down Flat to get the higher prices.
If we get the lower, fast early move and the BreakDown is the first Hour One Pivot then it will be a buy unless we have a Bear Ugly market with some surprising bad news throwing the markets off substantially. We want to short such a Bear Ugly market situation at the B/D upon seeing the prices run down and tap the B/D after the first hour. Remember, we are asking the market to be in such bad shape that it will give us 8 points BELOW THE LOWS of the fitst hour. That is a sick market day.
Value Area: 1,037.00 - 1,043.60
Trade holding above 1043.60 is bullish. If we pullback into the VA and move below 1037.00 and HOLD BELOW 1037 then this is a strong bearish sign. Support came in at this area on Wednesday and if it is rejected today they should take the prices down lower.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,035.00 - 1,036.00
Here we have the Buy Pivot right at this important support point from Wednesday. No trade at this pivot today but watch for continued support or for lower action if the High Five are bearish. -4.25 stop/pivot is at 1030.75 which should be important support for today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,045.50 - 1,044.50
No trade at this target. Prices are too close on the close to this price and we feel it's better to watch this area first. Compare with the BreakOut Hour One high and consider shorting here if we see prices fail to pop through the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1049.75.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,048.20
The Pit Bull is right at this same area as the Sell Pivot +4.25. Watch this double resistance area and let's see if an early push up here fails. This could provide good evidence for seeing our short trade at the B/O work out if the numbers compare.
Pro Trader's Action
On a higher opening and an early push up we want to short the market again and expect the lower move to occur. There are Too Many Bulls in the market right now and the lower prices are needed to clean out those positions.
We expect we will either get those lower prices right off the opening 20-30 minutes or after seeing the higher early prices hold up a bit before caving in later in the session.
Good luck today and let's see if we can get short at higher levels and watch prices pull back today off those highs to give us some profits. Remember, we are still in a very low range environment.
Stand aside if there is confusion today in what is the correct TCF setup. The last 3 days have been a bit more confusing than usual so don't concern about staying out to let things sort themselves out.
I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Look to sell early rallies on a higher opening today during the mid morning session. If prices drop quickly during the first 30 minutes of trading then we should see a move higher off those lows for an up day.
ESZ03 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Thursday, November 20, 2003
Prev Day - SP
Range: 10.50 Value Area
Range: 6.60 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,048.20 Pit Bull MA
1,045.50-1,044.50 Sell Pivot
High 1,043.70
1,043.60
Close 1,041.10
1,037.00
1,035.00-1,036.00 Buy Pivot
Open 1,034.20
Low 1,033.20
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, November 19, 2003:
Sell at 1038.00/ Cover the short for 3-4 point loss.
*Sell BreakOut at 1038.00. 6 point stop NOT HIT (missed stop by one tick). Later drop into final hour around 1041-42 to cover short for small loss.
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thanks for joining with us today on the Morning Call.
After 4 days down the market decided to recover some on Wednesday and not give us any pullback off the BreakOut. On our Headline Call we were looking for the early rally to occur giving us the higher prices but we were expecting the market to resume the drop lower moving towards our lower goal of 1021.00 to finish off an aberration pattern.
This was not to be the case on Wednesday as the market opened up slightly, pulled back a dab, and then proceeded to "hang up" near the highs for most of the day. Later in the final 2 hours of the session prices pushed up higher reaching for our stop at 1044.00 but missing it BY A TICK. Whew! That was close....but it gave us a chance to cover this short trade with a small 3-4 point loss.
So although it was a grind and our Headline Call didn't pan out according to plan today it was no big deal as we simply had a small loss on the day.
To those of you who are new to futures trading Wednesday's trade may have seemed like a big, dramatic deal. Sure it was a grind but really it was rather routine in the business. It was simply just a day where the market had been down for 4 days and had exhausted itself to the downside. So prices "Hung up" near the highs and pushed a bit higher. Buying the BreakOut would not have produced an 8 point trade on that side either so it was really just "one of those days".
This is how the S&P500 trading business can be often. There are those beautiful, perfect days where you Sell the BreakOut and "down they go" in a few hours giving us our 8 points and other days where you grind a bit.
Now, if you expect "perfect 8 point days" to happen everyday in this business YOU ARE IN FOR A BIG SURPRISE. That is NOT how the futures business works. And even worse, if because the market ACTS CONVOLUTED OR CONFUSING for a few days that you get all upset and assume there is something wrong with Mohan or the TCF methods then you need to get a clue.
This business is for HIGHLY MATURE AND PATIENT HUMAN BEINGS. This business is not a place for "perfectionists" or high strung people. This is S&P500 FUTURES TRADING...The fastest and riskiest game in town. If you can't take the normal heat of a day like Wednesday or Monday's action and you go crazy if you get stopped out...then this business may not be for you. It's as simple as that.
That would be like joining the Marines, training your butt off and then the minute you are under REAL GUNFIRE IN BATTLE start blaming the General for "getting you into this mess". We are S&P500 soldiers and sometimes we are going to have to work a little harder when things aren't as clear.
So on Wednesday we saw the market hit the BreakOut right after the first hour had completed and the High Five were neutral at first but then kept moving into more bullish setups with the TRIN dropping below .90 and NAZ pushing higher.
Chalk it up to experience and get ready to sell em again today.
Today's Call & Briefing:
On today's Headline Call we are going to be looking for one of two scenarios to unfold to give us hints of what side of the market we want to trade on.
First, if we see prices open higher and move up then we are going to be quite confident selling the higher prices. We would expect the prices to hold up into the mid morning session at least and possibly into the 1:30est time frame.
If the prices drop rapidly off the opening area or in the first 30 minutes or so then we are going to be looking for the market to move higher again. We were expecting the prices to start moving towards 1021.00 area to polish off a pattern before heading higher BUT Tuesday's 1031.00 low area may have done it. It's a bit difficult to say at this point. Today's opening and first half hour to one hour of movement will give us the clues.
Our Market Force indicators are in Buy Mode as most of you may recall. We were expecting and got the aberration with the down cycle we have been in. We had expected that down aberration on the Buy Mode (temporary) to reach down to 1021 and the low so far has been 1031.30 (Big S&P500).
Now for today, if we see the prices HOLDING ABOVE THE OPENING PRICE then we are most likely going to Cross Over the Pit Bull and start heading back up again reaching first for 1051.00, then back to make a new high for the month on the way to 1081.00.
Now, remember, these numbers can change when I get the signal off the closing numbers I use to calcuate this. I can't help but get the feeling that we are going to head down FIRST before resuming upwards BUT I do not want to "read into" the Market Force indicators too much. It is not only unnecessary as we are Day Traders and it doesn't really matter which direction they go but also because we don't NEED TO KNOW to make money with the TCF setups.
So here we go:
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Let's look to sell the BreakOut again today if that is the first Hour One pivot hit. Look for the TRIN to be above 1.00 ideally and NAZ weak but with the Dow giving the appearance of a rally.
Watch for a full on BreakOut Buy with the TRIN lower below .80 and the NAZ up +12-15 or more with the Down Flat to get the higher prices.
If we get the lower, fast early move and the BreakDown is the first Hour One Pivot then it will be a buy unless we have a Bear Ugly market with some surprising bad news throwing the markets off substantially. We want to short such a Bear Ugly market situation at the B/D upon seeing the prices run down and tap the B/D after the first hour. Remember, we are asking the market to be in such bad shape that it will give us 8 points BELOW THE LOWS of the fitst hour. That is a sick market day.
Value Area: 1,037.00 - 1,043.60
Trade holding above 1043.60 is bullish. If we pullback into the VA and move below 1037.00 and HOLD BELOW 1037 then this is a strong bearish sign. Support came in at this area on Wednesday and if it is rejected today they should take the prices down lower.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,035.00 - 1,036.00
Here we have the Buy Pivot right at this important support point from Wednesday. No trade at this pivot today but watch for continued support or for lower action if the High Five are bearish. -4.25 stop/pivot is at 1030.75 which should be important support for today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,045.50 - 1,044.50
No trade at this target. Prices are too close on the close to this price and we feel it's better to watch this area first. Compare with the BreakOut Hour One high and consider shorting here if we see prices fail to pop through the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1049.75.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,048.20
The Pit Bull is right at this same area as the Sell Pivot +4.25. Watch this double resistance area and let's see if an early push up here fails. This could provide good evidence for seeing our short trade at the B/O work out if the numbers compare.
Pro Trader's Action
On a higher opening and an early push up we want to short the market again and expect the lower move to occur. There are Too Many Bulls in the market right now and the lower prices are needed to clean out those positions.
We expect we will either get those lower prices right off the opening 20-30 minutes or after seeing the higher early prices hold up a bit before caving in later in the session.
Good luck today and let's see if we can get short at higher levels and watch prices pull back today off those highs to give us some profits. Remember, we are still in a very low range environment.
Stand aside if there is confusion today in what is the correct TCF setup. The last 3 days have been a bit more confusing than usual so don't concern about staying out to let things sort themselves out.
I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, November 19, 2003:
Sell at 1038.00/ Cover the short for 3-4 point loss.
*Sell BreakOut at 1038.00. 6 point stop NOT HIT (missed stop by one tick). Later drop into final hour around 1041-42 to cover short for small loss.
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thanks for joining with us today on the Morning Call.
After 4 days down the market decided to recover some on Wednesday and not give us any pullback off the BreakOut. On our Headline Call we were looking for the early rally to occur giving us the higher prices but we were expecting the market to resume the drop lower moving towards our lower goal of 1021.00 to finish off an aberration pattern.
This was not to be the case on Wednesday as the market opened up slightly, pulled back a dab, and then proceeded to "hang up" near the highs for most of the day. Later in the final 2 hours of the session prices pushed up higher reaching for our stop at 1044.00 but missing it BY A TICK. Whew! That was close....but it gave us a chance to cover this short trade with a small 3-4 point loss.
So although it was a grind and our Headline Call didn't pan out according to plan today it was no big deal as we simply had a small loss on the day.
To those of you who are new to futures trading Wednesday's trade may have seemed like a big, dramatic deal. Sure it was a grind but really it was rather routine in the business. It was simply just a day where the market had been down for 4 days and had exhausted itself to the downside. So prices "Hung up" near the highs and pushed a bit higher. Buying the BreakOut would not have produced an 8 point trade on that side either so it was really just "one of those days".
This is how the S&P500 trading business can be often. There are those beautiful, perfect days where you Sell the BreakOut and "down they go" in a few hours giving us our 8 points and other days where you grind a bit.
Now, if you expect "perfect 8 point days" to happen everyday in this business YOU ARE IN FOR A BIG SURPRISE. That is NOT how the futures business works. And even worse, if because the market ACTS CONVOLUTED OR CONFUSING for a few days that you get all upset and assume there is something wrong with Mohan or the TCF methods then you need to get a clue.
This business is for HIGHLY MATURE AND PATIENT HUMAN BEINGS. This business is not a place for "perfectionists" or high strung people. This is S&P500 FUTURES TRADING...The fastest and riskiest game in town. If you can't take the normal heat of a day like Wednesday or Monday's action and you go crazy if you get stopped out...then this business may not be for you. It's as simple as that.
That would be like joining the Marines, training your butt off and then the minute you are under REAL GUNFIRE IN BATTLE start blaming the General for "getting you into this mess". We are S&P500 soldiers and sometimes we are going to have to work a little harder when things aren't as clear.
So on Wednesday we saw the market hit the BreakOut right after the first hour had completed and the High Five were neutral at first but then kept moving into more bullish setups with the TRIN dropping below .90 and NAZ pushing higher.
Chalk it up to experience and get ready to sell em again today.
Today's Call & Briefing:
On today's Headline Call we are going to be looking for one of two scenarios to unfold to give us hints of what side of the market we want to trade on.
First, if we see prices open higher and move up then we are going to be quite confident selling the higher prices. We would expect the prices to hold up into the mid morning session at least and possibly into the 1:30est time frame.
If the prices drop rapidly off the opening area or in the first 30 minutes or so then we are going to be looking for the market to move higher again. We were expecting the prices to start moving towards 1021.00 area to polish off a pattern before heading higher BUT Tuesday's 1031.00 low area may have done it. It's a bit difficult to say at this point. Today's opening and first half hour to one hour of movement will give us the clues.
Our Market Force indicators are in Buy Mode as most of you may recall. We were expecting and got the aberration with the down cycle we have been in. We had expected that down aberration on the Buy Mode (temporary) to reach down to 1021 and the low so far has been 1031.30 (Big S&P500).
Now for today, if we see the prices HOLDING ABOVE THE OPENING PRICE then we are most likely going to Cross Over the Pit Bull and start heading back up again reaching first for 1051.00, then back to make a new high for the month on the way to 1081.00.
Now, remember, these numbers can change when I get the signal off the closing numbers I use to calcuate this. I can't help but get the feeling that we are going to head down FIRST before resuming upwards BUT I do not want to "read into" the Market Force indicators too much. It is not only unnecessary as we are Day Traders and it doesn't really matter which direction they go but also because we don't NEED TO KNOW to make money with the TCF setups.
So here we go:
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Let's look to sell the BreakOut again today if that is the first Hour One pivot hit. Look for the TRIN to be above 1.00 ideally and NAZ weak but with the Dow giving the appearance of a rally.
Watch for a full on BreakOut Buy with the TRIN lower below .80 and the NAZ up +12-15 or more with the Down Flat to get the higher prices.
If we get the lower, fast early move and the BreakDown is the first Hour One Pivot then it will be a buy unless we have a Bear Ugly market with some surprising bad news throwing the markets off substantially. We want to short such a Bear Ugly market situation at the B/D upon seeing the prices run down and tap the B/D after the first hour. Remember, we are asking the market to be in such bad shape that it will give us 8 points BELOW THE LOWS of the fitst hour. That is a sick market day.
Value Area: 1,037.00 - 1,043.60
Trade holding above 1043.60 is bullish. If we pullback into the VA and move below 1037.00 and HOLD BELOW 1037 then this is a strong bearish sign. Support came in at this area on Wednesday and if it is rejected today they should take the prices down lower.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,035.00 - 1,036.00
Here we have the Buy Pivot right at this important support point from Wednesday. No trade at this pivot today but watch for continued support or for lower action if the High Five are bearish. -4.25 stop/pivot is at 1030.75 which should be important support for today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,045.50 - 1,044.50
No trade at this target. Prices are too close on the close to this price and we feel it's better to watch this area first. Compare with the BreakOut Hour One high and consider shorting here if we see prices fail to pop through the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1049.75.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,048.20
The Pit Bull is right at this same area as the Sell Pivot +4.25. Watch this double resistance area and let's see if an early push up here fails. This could provide good evidence for seeing our short trade at the B/O work out if the numbers compare.
Pro Trader's Action
On a higher opening and an early push up we want to short the market again and expect the lower move to occur. There are Too Many Bulls in the market right now and the lower prices are needed to clean out those positions.
We expect we will either get those lower prices right off the opening 20-30 minutes or after seeing the higher early prices hold up a bit before caving in later in the session.
Good luck today and let's see if we can get short at higher levels and watch prices pull back today off those highs to give us some profits. Remember, we are still in a very low range environment.
Stand aside if there is confusion today in what is the correct TCF setup. The last 3 days have been a bit more confusing than usual so don't concern about staying out to let things sort themselves out.
I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Look to sell early rallies on a higher opening today during the mid morning session. If prices drop quickly during the first 30 minutes of trading then we should see a move higher off those lows for an up day.
ESZ03 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Thursday, November 20, 2003
Prev Day - SP
Range: 10.50 Value Area
Range: 6.60 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,048.20 Pit Bull MA
1,045.50-1,044.50 Sell Pivot
High 1,043.70
1,043.60
Close 1,041.10
1,037.00
1,035.00-1,036.00 Buy Pivot
Open 1,034.20
Low 1,033.20
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, November 19, 2003:
Sell at 1038.00/ Cover the short for 3-4 point loss.
*Sell BreakOut at 1038.00. 6 point stop NOT HIT (missed stop by one tick). Later drop into final hour around 1041-42 to cover short for small loss.
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thanks for joining with us today on the Morning Call.
After 4 days down the market decided to recover some on Wednesday and not give us any pullback off the BreakOut. On our Headline Call we were looking for the early rally to occur giving us the higher prices but we were expecting the market to resume the drop lower moving towards our lower goal of 1021.00 to finish off an aberration pattern.
This was not to be the case on Wednesday as the market opened up slightly, pulled back a dab, and then proceeded to "hang up" near the highs for most of the day. Later in the final 2 hours of the session prices pushed up higher reaching for our stop at 1044.00 but missing it BY A TICK. Whew! That was close....but it gave us a chance to cover this short trade with a small 3-4 point loss.
So although it was a grind and our Headline Call didn't pan out according to plan today it was no big deal as we simply had a small loss on the day.
To those of you who are new to futures trading Wednesday's trade may have seemed like a big, dramatic deal. Sure it was a grind but really it was rather routine in the business. It was simply just a day where the market had been down for 4 days and had exhausted itself to the downside. So prices "Hung up" near the highs and pushed a bit higher. Buying the BreakOut would not have produced an 8 point trade on that side either so it was really just "one of those days".
This is how the S&P500 trading business can be often. There are those beautiful, perfect days where you Sell the BreakOut and "down they go" in a few hours giving us our 8 points and other days where you grind a bit.
Now, if you expect "perfect 8 point days" to happen everyday in this business YOU ARE IN FOR A BIG SURPRISE. That is NOT how the futures business works. And even worse, if because the market ACTS CONVOLUTED OR CONFUSING for a few days that you get all upset and assume there is something wrong with Mohan or the TCF methods then you need to get a clue.
This business is for HIGHLY MATURE AND PATIENT HUMAN BEINGS. This business is not a place for "perfectionists" or high strung people. This is S&P500 FUTURES TRADING...The fastest and riskiest game in town. If you can't take the normal heat of a day like Wednesday or Monday's action and you go crazy if you get stopped out...then this business may not be for you. It's as simple as that.
That would be like joining the Marines, training your butt off and then the minute you are under REAL GUNFIRE IN BATTLE start blaming the General for "getting you into this mess". We are S&P500 soldiers and sometimes we are going to have to work a little harder when things aren't as clear.
So on Wednesday we saw the market hit the BreakOut right after the first hour had completed and the High Five were neutral at first but then kept moving into more bullish setups with the TRIN dropping below .90 and NAZ pushing higher.
Chalk it up to experience and get ready to sell em again today.
Today's Call & Briefing:
On today's Headline Call we are going to be looking for one of two scenarios to unfold to give us hints of what side of the market we want to trade on.
First, if we see prices open higher and move up then we are going to be quite confident selling the higher prices. We would expect the prices to hold up into the mid morning session at least and possibly into the 1:30est time frame.
If the prices drop rapidly off the opening area or in the first 30 minutes or so then we are going to be looking for the market to move higher again. We were expecting the prices to start moving towards 1021.00 area to polish off a pattern before heading higher BUT Tuesday's 1031.00 low area may have done it. It's a bit difficult to say at this point. Today's opening and first half hour to one hour of movement will give us the clues.
Our Market Force indicators are in Buy Mode as most of you may recall. We were expecting and got the aberration with the down cycle we have been in. We had expected that down aberration on the Buy Mode (temporary) to reach down to 1021 and the low so far has been 1031.30 (Big S&P500).
Now for today, if we see the prices HOLDING ABOVE THE OPENING PRICE then we are most likely going to Cross Over the Pit Bull and start heading back up again reaching first for 1051.00, then back to make a new high for the month on the way to 1081.00.
Now, remember, these numbers can change when I get the signal off the closing numbers I use to calcuate this. I can't help but get the feeling that we are going to head down FIRST before resuming upwards BUT I do not want to "read into" the Market Force indicators too much. It is not only unnecessary as we are Day Traders and it doesn't really matter which direction they go but also because we don't NEED TO KNOW to make money with the TCF setups.
So here we go:
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Let's look to sell the BreakOut again today if that is the first Hour One pivot hit. Look for the TRIN to be above 1.00 ideally and NAZ weak but with the Dow giving the appearance of a rally.
Watch for a full on BreakOut Buy with the TRIN lower below .80 and the NAZ up +12-15 or more with the Down Flat to get the higher prices.
If we get the lower, fast early move and the BreakDown is the first Hour One Pivot then it will be a buy unless we have a Bear Ugly market with some surprising bad news throwing the markets off substantially. We want to short such a Bear Ugly market situation at the B/D upon seeing the prices run down and tap the B/D after the first hour. Remember, we are asking the market to be in such bad shape that it will give us 8 points BELOW THE LOWS of the fitst hour. That is a sick market day.
Value Area: 1,037.00 - 1,043.60
Trade holding above 1043.60 is bullish. If we pullback into the VA and move below 1037.00 and HOLD BELOW 1037 then this is a strong bearish sign. Support came in at this area on Wednesday and if it is rejected today they should take the prices down lower.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,035.00 - 1,036.00
Here we have the Buy Pivot right at this important support point from Wednesday. No trade at this pivot today but watch for continued support or for lower action if the High Five are bearish. -4.25 stop/pivot is at 1030.75 which should be important support for today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,045.50 - 1,044.50
No trade at this target. Prices are too close on the close to this price and we feel it's better to watch this area first. Compare with the BreakOut Hour One high and consider shorting here if we see prices fail to pop through the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1049.75.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,048.20
The Pit Bull is right at this same area as the Sell Pivot +4.25. Watch this double resistance area and let's see if an early push up here fails. This could provide good evidence for seeing our short trade at the B/O work out if the numbers compare.
Pro Trader's Action
On a higher opening and an early push up we want to short the market again and expect the lower move to occur. There are Too Many Bulls in the market right now and the lower prices are needed to clean out those positions.
We expect we will either get those lower prices right off the opening 20-30 minutes or after seeing the higher early prices hold up a bit before caving in later in the session.
Good luck today and let's see if we can get short at higher levels and watch prices pull back today off those highs to give us some profits. Remember, we are still in a very low range environment.
Stand aside if there is confusion today in what is the correct TCF setup. The last 3 days have been a bit more confusing than usual so don't concern about staying out to let things sort themselves out.
I'll see you in the action. Mohan