Mohan 19/11/03
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Mohan 19/11/03
Sell rallies today as the market pushes lower looking to stretch to the 1021.00 goal mentioned last week.
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, November 18, 2003:
As mentioned on the chart above, today was pegged to collapse upon seeing the BreakDown get hit first. TRIN was mostly trading above 1.20 or higher and NAZ was weak.
If you bought the BreakDown minus 2-4 points you had a 2-4 pt. loss.
Standing aside in "position neutral" was also a valid.
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.
First, let me say that the last 2 days of trading have been more difficult days to read and you really had to "put on your thinking cap" along with strong professional patience application. When these type of days occur in the S&P500 you just have to accept them, embrace them and learn from them how to react.
On our Headline Call for Tuesday we were looking for higher prices. We got the early move up and run up to 1048.50 hitting the Sell Pivot Target area and then they just slowly eroded all day making our call for higher prices wrong.
We had stated specifically in Tuesday's briefing that, "If the BreakDown is hit first then we will need to determine if we are going into a larger scale meltdown to the downside as this would be a great possibility with the first Hour One pivot being the BreakDown".
In spite of some effort to rally, the Dow and the NAZ kept getting weaker and the telltale TRIN was holding above 1.20 early and later all day. The 5 minute chart above shows how the S&P500 higher moves kept getting hit and indeed the "staircase rally" pattern I talked about possibly occuring on a "sneak up" basis actually occured in the same fashion but to the DOWNSIDE.
So however you handled today I hope it was a good learning experience as that is what S&P500 Futures trading is all about. Our 21st Century Futures system as outlined in the Handbook is designed to get you on the right side of the market but mostly to OPEN YOUR MIND to learning to read the markets using the TCF setups. Learn how to read when they are right and become extremely proficient in learning how to see when something is wrong and not panning out so you can take the opposite position.
That is how you WIN in this business and that is how you SURVIVE in this world. These briefings are designed to assist you in how to learn BOTH.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Last Tuesday in the "Pit Bull" section I made a case for why I felt we were expecting a bearish pullback in the markets and the first goal lower was 1021.00. During the following days the markets went up and made new recent highs in the S&P500 at 1063.30 and kept "crossing over" to the bearish side of the Pit Bull.
The next day (Wednesday the 12th) I gave you a sequence of numbers to watch on the way lower which were 1041-42,1035,33, 29-30, 27.50, 23 and 1021.00. Well, it appears that we have started that spiral down and we are expecting to fufill these numbers TODAY.
So our Headline Call for today is to look to Sell Rallies and expect the market to continue to head lower to fufill this 1021.00 area goal. Now the key to seeing this action will be if the market tries to rally early again today. If the prices drop early and things take off to the downside right away then we are going to be willing to be buyers on the lower action. Ideally though we want to stay on the sell side today as we finish off the lower pattern.
TCF SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We want to ideally stay on the sell side of the market if they especially open the market flat to higher and run em up early. If we get the BreakOut as the first Hour One pivot then we will be looking for the correct symptoms to sell that B/O.
Although not expected, be on the lookout for a BreakOut Buy setup as we have had 4 days down. I am expecting one more lower day today to finish off a certain pattern but the lower prices could occur early and we could get a reflex bounce that could Breakout. Not expected though.
If we get the BreakDown as the first Hour One pivot again then let's be ready to Buy the BreakDown and most likely be looking to subtract 2-4 points from the B/D low to get long. Watch for the 1021.00 fufillment too to be gotten out of the way as an additional signal for an early bottom.
Value Area: 1,037.10 - 1,047.50
Holding below 1037.10 is bearish. A lower move that pushes back into the VA with the TRIN lower, NAZ strong and the Dow holding above water could signal a move that would retrace 75% of the VA range to the upside (1044.75).
Otherwise, early moves up into the VA will probably find resistance as they head back lower as mentioned to fufill that lower 1021-23 goal.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,026.50 - 1,027.50
No trade at this target today. It's tempting but I think we are better off waiting to see if we get the -4.25 stop/pivot to hold up the selling at 1022.25. This would bring us awfully close to our downside lower goal.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,043.75 - 1,042.75
On a flat to higher opening range and an early rally up to this Sell Pivot target let's go ahead and sell em here. Use a 5 point stop at 47.75 and hold short for more downside action to unfold. I am not expecting we will get this setup today though.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,049.50
We are solidly below the Pit Bull and should be heading lower. Use any early rallies this morning to get short at the B/O below this Pit Bull and see if we can get that 1021.-23 action fufilled.
Pro Trader's Action
As mentioned, the last 2 days have been more of a challenge to read the markets. Hey, this is good for us as it makes us strong and more efficient. We are not in some organized, passive business where everyday is going to follow some script. Sure the Morning Call and the TCF Trade setups ROCK but we also need to learn to use them along with the High Five knowledge I have demonstated. We need to READ THE MARKETS under all or most every condition. Over time you will also develop a "sixth sense" about the markets...an intuition if you will. But don't try and preempt this. It will occur naturally after 5 years or more of sitting in front of these one minute S&P500 Emini candles watching the action almost EVERYDAY.
Take your time, be willing to view each day as a trading lesson, and EXPECT EACH DAY TO BE A BIT DIFFERENT.
We can handle it...right! We are the 21st Century Futures "Morning Call" gang and WE GET IT. So let's nail em today ideally on the short side and see if we can smack em down some more to fufill our lower projected number and our higher projected dreams.
all the best of luck and success. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, November 18, 2003:
As mentioned on the chart above, today was pegged to collapse upon seeing the BreakDown get hit first. TRIN was mostly trading above 1.20 or higher and NAZ was weak.
If you bought the BreakDown minus 2-4 points you had a 2-4 pt. loss.
Standing aside in "position neutral" was also a valid.
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.
First, let me say that the last 2 days of trading have been more difficult days to read and you really had to "put on your thinking cap" along with strong professional patience application. When these type of days occur in the S&P500 you just have to accept them, embrace them and learn from them how to react.
On our Headline Call for Tuesday we were looking for higher prices. We got the early move up and run up to 1048.50 hitting the Sell Pivot Target area and then they just slowly eroded all day making our call for higher prices wrong.
We had stated specifically in Tuesday's briefing that, "If the BreakDown is hit first then we will need to determine if we are going into a larger scale meltdown to the downside as this would be a great possibility with the first Hour One pivot being the BreakDown".
In spite of some effort to rally, the Dow and the NAZ kept getting weaker and the telltale TRIN was holding above 1.20 early and later all day. The 5 minute chart above shows how the S&P500 higher moves kept getting hit and indeed the "staircase rally" pattern I talked about possibly occuring on a "sneak up" basis actually occured in the same fashion but to the DOWNSIDE.
So however you handled today I hope it was a good learning experience as that is what S&P500 Futures trading is all about. Our 21st Century Futures system as outlined in the Handbook is designed to get you on the right side of the market but mostly to OPEN YOUR MIND to learning to read the markets using the TCF setups. Learn how to read when they are right and become extremely proficient in learning how to see when something is wrong and not panning out so you can take the opposite position.
That is how you WIN in this business and that is how you SURVIVE in this world. These briefings are designed to assist you in how to learn BOTH.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Last Tuesday in the "Pit Bull" section I made a case for why I felt we were expecting a bearish pullback in the markets and the first goal lower was 1021.00. During the following days the markets went up and made new recent highs in the S&P500 at 1063.30 and kept "crossing over" to the bearish side of the Pit Bull.
The next day (Wednesday the 12th) I gave you a sequence of numbers to watch on the way lower which were 1041-42,1035,33, 29-30, 27.50, 23 and 1021.00. Well, it appears that we have started that spiral down and we are expecting to fufill these numbers TODAY.
So our Headline Call for today is to look to Sell Rallies and expect the market to continue to head lower to fufill this 1021.00 area goal. Now the key to seeing this action will be if the market tries to rally early again today. If the prices drop early and things take off to the downside right away then we are going to be willing to be buyers on the lower action. Ideally though we want to stay on the sell side today as we finish off the lower pattern.
TCF SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We want to ideally stay on the sell side of the market if they especially open the market flat to higher and run em up early. If we get the BreakOut as the first Hour One pivot then we will be looking for the correct symptoms to sell that B/O.
Although not expected, be on the lookout for a BreakOut Buy setup as we have had 4 days down. I am expecting one more lower day today to finish off a certain pattern but the lower prices could occur early and we could get a reflex bounce that could Breakout. Not expected though.
If we get the BreakDown as the first Hour One pivot again then let's be ready to Buy the BreakDown and most likely be looking to subtract 2-4 points from the B/D low to get long. Watch for the 1021.00 fufillment too to be gotten out of the way as an additional signal for an early bottom.
Value Area: 1,037.10 - 1,047.50
Holding below 1037.10 is bearish. A lower move that pushes back into the VA with the TRIN lower, NAZ strong and the Dow holding above water could signal a move that would retrace 75% of the VA range to the upside (1044.75).
Otherwise, early moves up into the VA will probably find resistance as they head back lower as mentioned to fufill that lower 1021-23 goal.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,026.50 - 1,027.50
No trade at this target today. It's tempting but I think we are better off waiting to see if we get the -4.25 stop/pivot to hold up the selling at 1022.25. This would bring us awfully close to our downside lower goal.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,043.75 - 1,042.75
On a flat to higher opening range and an early rally up to this Sell Pivot target let's go ahead and sell em here. Use a 5 point stop at 47.75 and hold short for more downside action to unfold. I am not expecting we will get this setup today though.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,049.50
We are solidly below the Pit Bull and should be heading lower. Use any early rallies this morning to get short at the B/O below this Pit Bull and see if we can get that 1021.-23 action fufilled.
Pro Trader's Action
As mentioned, the last 2 days have been more of a challenge to read the markets. Hey, this is good for us as it makes us strong and more efficient. We are not in some organized, passive business where everyday is going to follow some script. Sure the Morning Call and the TCF Trade setups ROCK but we also need to learn to use them along with the High Five knowledge I have demonstated. We need to READ THE MARKETS under all or most every condition. Over time you will also develop a "sixth sense" about the markets...an intuition if you will. But don't try and preempt this. It will occur naturally after 5 years or more of sitting in front of these one minute S&P500 Emini candles watching the action almost EVERYDAY.
Take your time, be willing to view each day as a trading lesson, and EXPECT EACH DAY TO BE A BIT DIFFERENT.
We can handle it...right! We are the 21st Century Futures "Morning Call" gang and WE GET IT. So let's nail em today ideally on the short side and see if we can smack em down some more to fufill our lower projected number and our higher projected dreams.
all the best of luck and success. Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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