CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Uma coisa é certa, dia após dia estás a fazer-me gostar cada vez mais de ler o Cramer

Achei particularmente interessante ele falar nas companhias do tabaco e das "drug stocks"; a MRK tem-se falado aqui e pelos vistos está a confirmar a ideia. e as do tabaco ainda achei mais piada; as unicas acções q fecharam positivas no FOOTSE 100 na segunda foram as relativas a imobiliário e a ... tabaco!

já agora, qual foi a unica companhia a fechar positiva na segunda-feira das 30 do Dow? a Boeing! Ora aqui está algo tb curioso! Então os mercados não cairam na segunda por causa dos possiveis novos ataques da Al-Qaeda? e não é essa a razao de as companhias aereas cairem tanto? se é, como se explica q um fabricante de avioes demonstre tanta força num dia de tanta fraqueza?!?

olhando pro boneco da Boeing até q n tá mal de todo apesar de o dia de hj parecer querer "compensar" a força de ontem, e se assim é, pergunto eu... será que "alguem" "combina" para determinado dia um "porto-seguro"? naahhh... "eles" nao fariam isso... isso seria ilegal, né?

enfim... just some thoughts...

DJ... podes ver aqui http://www.algarvegolf.net/algarve/lagos.htm que a feira franca é este fdsemana (ainda vais a tempo de arranjar bilhete de avião:)).

Um abraço enorme, boas férias e até breve...

Nunofaustino

djovarius,
Não sei bem, mas este fim-de-semana hà feira e talvez seja a franca.Amanhã confirmo-te.

Ulisses,o teu comentar ajudou bastate.

Até...
Carlos carmo

Aliás, Ulisses

Isto tem passado em branco, praticamente, nem nada que se compare aos escândalos corporativos, tipo Enron e Worldcom.

Mas hoje mesmo, um senador veio pedir penas duríssimas para os prevaricadores, o que de alguma forma daria mais credibilidade ao sistema.

Não é muito grave porque não se trata de gestão ruinosa. Até era um esquema que não provocava perdas de valor...

P.S. - Continuo sem saber se a Feira Franca já chegou a Lagos, mas paciência...

Um abraço

O Cramer tem insistido que alguns grandes fundos têm enfrentado vários resgates por causa dos escândalos que os têm afectado. O Cramer vai mais longe ainda: Diz que face à gravidade do que tem vindo a público, seria justíssimo (e natural) que os resgates fosse ainda maiores.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

djovarius,
Ok, vou ler mais uma vez o texto para o tentar perceber, mesmo com o tradutor do altavista, não é fácil.
Até...e o meu obrigado
Carlos carmo

Caro conterrâneo,

Redemption = resgate (do fundo)


P.S. - Já chegou a Feira Franca à cidade ?

Um abraço

Boas,Ulisses
O que significa Redemptions?
O meu obrigado
Carlos carmo

"No, Really, It's Redemptions"

By James J. Cramer
11/18/2003 11:42 AM EST


"Can't hold a rally. Not yet. Too much money flowing out. Not enough money flowing in. Too many funds having to sell stock because of redemptions. Too few natural buyers.

That's certainly been the story for the last two weeks. As is always the case, when it's redemptions, it's a silent killer.


First, the companies that are suffering redemptions view it as their duty to lie about the redemptions.

Second, there's lots of disinformation about redemptions. Putnam says it has 3% cash, which is fine for redemptions, and uses derivatives to manage the redemptions.

To which I say, hah! There is no alchemy to the process. You can't create money. When there is money going out the door, there are many people who see it. If you were handling the Putnam account right now, you could be a huge source of information to your hedge fund clients about what could be leaned on.

Ah, you say, but it would be illegal to pass that information on. To which I say, after the illegality that we have just seen, do you think the salespeople would worry about betraying Putnam? You think that Mother Theresa's disciples work on the Floor?

Of course, there will be some stocks that can weather the selloff. The drug stocks generate huge cash flow and those companies can buy stock back. So do the tobacco companies.

But the Lucents (LU:NYSE - commentary - research) and Nortels (NT:NYSE - commentary - research) and El Pasos (EP:NYSE - commentary - research) and InterActiveCorps (IACI:Nasdaq - commentary - research) and Electronic Artses (ERTS:Nasdaq - commentary - research) and Yahoo!s (YHOO:Nasdaq - commentary - research)?

Nope, they're at the mercy of redemptions.

The funniest thing is these wacky emails from people who say "Hold it, the sellers are in-kind sellers. When the state of blah blah blah pulls money out, all it does is journal the positions to another firm. That doesn't put any pressure on anything."


It's funny because people who know so much less about the way the world works continue telling me that I don't know what's going on. If you are a new money manager with stocks journaled over in kind, you might just sell the stocks and start over again. It certainly is your prerogative. And if you are an individual adviser who pulls money from Putnam, you get that as cash on the barrelhead.

Understand that I have spent a professional lifetime analyzing the differences between the stocks and the companies underneath. I start from the supposition that longer-term, they track well, but for anything other than longer-term, they track terribly. What matters is supply and demand.


Right now, there is a ton of supply because of the scandals. The plethora of new offerings and secondaries only adds to the pain.

You can trust all of these institutions that lied and now say they aren't causing the weakness. Or you can trust someone like me who has experienced redemptions and shot against funds that have been redeemed and has some of the best contacts in the world at every major trading firm.

With all due non-humility, I would go with me. "

(in www.realmoney.com)