Mohan 17/11/03
Enviado: 17/11/2003 12:00Market to move higher today off the early lows.
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, November 14, 2003:
Sell above the Sell Pivot in the 1062-63 price area as specifically instructed on Friday's briefing./ Cover for up to +8 pts.
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend. Hope it was relaxing for you.
We got our expected Friday day off as specifically planned with the early ramp up through the Sell Pivot Target. Prices stalled just under our expected 1065.25 area and our "perfect world" trade going short at 1062-63 set up nicely. They squashed the prices down hard from there quickly giving us up to +8 points on the move at the BreakDown (1054.75) and then things settled down.
Our plan after this early, fast move was to take the rest of the day off and fortunately all this expected action occurred within the first 2 hours of trading so it made for a nice early break into the weekend.
Our Headline Call overall did not pan out totally as expected as we were looking for prices to hold up above the open and give us a mild flat to up day. Instead, as prices attempted to move above the opening they slowly eroded and later pushed through the BreakDown again dropping lower to the 1047-48 area.
The High Five was the key to expecting the lower prices as we had the TRIN above 1.00 practically the whole session signaling overall weakness. Ideally you caught the early short trade and took the day off so the Headline Call not panning out was not so significant for the day.
As mentioned in Friday's briefing we are expecting an up day for today's action and our Headline Call for today spells that out.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We are going to be looking for early, lower prices below the close Friday of 1048.90. If we are fortunate and that does occur it will aid in seeing the prices push up higher above the open later in the session.
Our real key to continued climbing prices today and througout this week would be a return to 1050-51 to start and then a solid move above the 1053.00 area. If we see prices move to this area and "hang up" (means stall and hold this zone) then this should overall be bullish for this week. However, as you know we generally do not make longer term price projections beyond our one day Headline Calls. We do have some evidence to suggest that a return to the Pit Bull and holding above it should produce good gains this week however.
The key of course will be how the week pans out on a day to day sequencing basis in line with our 18 proprietary Market Force indicators and the associated High Five setups we get along the way.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: I am expecting to see the BreakDown get hit again today as the first Hour One pivot. If indeed this is correct we will be looking to Buy the B/D. If the High Five is real strong on the Bearish side then look to subtract 2-4 points from the B/D and buy there. Otherwise just hit em at the B/D price and hold long.
If we get a BreakOut FIRST today then be on the lookout for the correct setup for a BreakOut Buy with the Flat Dow and the NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) being up +12-15 points or higher. On a HIGHER OPENING ABOVE 1048.90 use CAUTION on buying a BreakOut as we will probably see prices drift lower again today. Although this is not expected if indeed Friday's lower price action started a temporary downtrend then this is the type of pattern we will see creating a Bearish sequencing pattern (higher opening and lower close below the opening price range).
A Bear Ugly day is NOT EXPECTED today but as always we will be on the lookout for one off the opening with real strong, negative news that sends the markets reeling.
No trades at the Pivot targets but watch the Buy Pivot target and the -4.25 stop/pivot for support at 1038.75 which is a PREVIOUS, STRONG SUPPORT AREA....remember 1039.00?? We had been using this number extensively 2 weeks back as a support area during last week of October. Glad you are remembering these numbers and taking mental notes....right? OK.
Value Area: 1,051.60 - 1,063.30
The number of 1051-52 mentioned earlier in this briefing is also, as you can see, the bottom of the Value Area. This gives us more evidence of a long trade panning out from lower levels. It also however gives us a possible RESISTANCE AREA if the move up from the lower levels is going to stall.
Recall how if the trade moves into the VA and HOLDS IN THE VA FOR 2-3 MINUTES (coming up from below it) then very often we will see an up to 75% retrace of the VA range which would be a move to 1060.40 area (75% of range is 8.75 + 1051.60).
Buy Pivot Target: 1,043.00 - 1,044.00
No specific trade at this pivot but watch for a comparison to the BreakDown if that is the first Hour One pivot hit. Look for support to come in above 1038.75 and that is where we would ideally be getting long.
If we get a Bear Ugly opening then that will throw water on the idea of getting long and we would be thinking "Sell" upon seeing strong, bad news causing the Ugly situation. Not expected today however.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,059.00 - 1,058.00
If we get a HIGHER OPENING and a fast, early run up to this price zone then we can Sell the Sell Pivot target here. Use a 5 point stop and be willing to hold all day for lower prices later in the session although we would expect our 8 points to show up anytime. We do not expect this setup to occur today however.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,052.50
This price area will now become a temporary "line in the sand" and on a lower opening and early bounce off the lows we will most likely see prices stall here. If we are fortunate and we get the lower early action that bounces then this area should represent our approximate 8 point profit anyway so we could just let the day go. Let's see how things pan out with that strategy. Otherwise just be aware of prices hitting a brick wall here today.
Pro Trader's Action
Ideally we get a LOWER OPENING TODAY and an early push lower. If this is the case and the BreakDown is the first pivot hit then we should be able to get a higher move up off of it.
Be on the lookout for a move up 5 points off of the lower B/D and returns to the B/D again with the High Five not budging off a bearish setup. Today will be an important pivot day to see if we continue higher or get caught in an aberration on a higher move back up causing prices to stall and head lower again.
Plain and simple...if we can't get back up solidly over the 1052 area on lower early prices then we will have to consider more downside action to be on the way. Good Luck today with your trading and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, November 14, 2003:
Sell above the Sell Pivot in the 1062-63 price area as specifically instructed on Friday's briefing./ Cover for up to +8 pts.
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend. Hope it was relaxing for you.
We got our expected Friday day off as specifically planned with the early ramp up through the Sell Pivot Target. Prices stalled just under our expected 1065.25 area and our "perfect world" trade going short at 1062-63 set up nicely. They squashed the prices down hard from there quickly giving us up to +8 points on the move at the BreakDown (1054.75) and then things settled down.
Our plan after this early, fast move was to take the rest of the day off and fortunately all this expected action occurred within the first 2 hours of trading so it made for a nice early break into the weekend.
Our Headline Call overall did not pan out totally as expected as we were looking for prices to hold up above the open and give us a mild flat to up day. Instead, as prices attempted to move above the opening they slowly eroded and later pushed through the BreakDown again dropping lower to the 1047-48 area.
The High Five was the key to expecting the lower prices as we had the TRIN above 1.00 practically the whole session signaling overall weakness. Ideally you caught the early short trade and took the day off so the Headline Call not panning out was not so significant for the day.
As mentioned in Friday's briefing we are expecting an up day for today's action and our Headline Call for today spells that out.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We are going to be looking for early, lower prices below the close Friday of 1048.90. If we are fortunate and that does occur it will aid in seeing the prices push up higher above the open later in the session.
Our real key to continued climbing prices today and througout this week would be a return to 1050-51 to start and then a solid move above the 1053.00 area. If we see prices move to this area and "hang up" (means stall and hold this zone) then this should overall be bullish for this week. However, as you know we generally do not make longer term price projections beyond our one day Headline Calls. We do have some evidence to suggest that a return to the Pit Bull and holding above it should produce good gains this week however.
The key of course will be how the week pans out on a day to day sequencing basis in line with our 18 proprietary Market Force indicators and the associated High Five setups we get along the way.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: I am expecting to see the BreakDown get hit again today as the first Hour One pivot. If indeed this is correct we will be looking to Buy the B/D. If the High Five is real strong on the Bearish side then look to subtract 2-4 points from the B/D and buy there. Otherwise just hit em at the B/D price and hold long.
If we get a BreakOut FIRST today then be on the lookout for the correct setup for a BreakOut Buy with the Flat Dow and the NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) being up +12-15 points or higher. On a HIGHER OPENING ABOVE 1048.90 use CAUTION on buying a BreakOut as we will probably see prices drift lower again today. Although this is not expected if indeed Friday's lower price action started a temporary downtrend then this is the type of pattern we will see creating a Bearish sequencing pattern (higher opening and lower close below the opening price range).
A Bear Ugly day is NOT EXPECTED today but as always we will be on the lookout for one off the opening with real strong, negative news that sends the markets reeling.
No trades at the Pivot targets but watch the Buy Pivot target and the -4.25 stop/pivot for support at 1038.75 which is a PREVIOUS, STRONG SUPPORT AREA....remember 1039.00?? We had been using this number extensively 2 weeks back as a support area during last week of October. Glad you are remembering these numbers and taking mental notes....right? OK.
Value Area: 1,051.60 - 1,063.30
The number of 1051-52 mentioned earlier in this briefing is also, as you can see, the bottom of the Value Area. This gives us more evidence of a long trade panning out from lower levels. It also however gives us a possible RESISTANCE AREA if the move up from the lower levels is going to stall.
Recall how if the trade moves into the VA and HOLDS IN THE VA FOR 2-3 MINUTES (coming up from below it) then very often we will see an up to 75% retrace of the VA range which would be a move to 1060.40 area (75% of range is 8.75 + 1051.60).
Buy Pivot Target: 1,043.00 - 1,044.00
No specific trade at this pivot but watch for a comparison to the BreakDown if that is the first Hour One pivot hit. Look for support to come in above 1038.75 and that is where we would ideally be getting long.
If we get a Bear Ugly opening then that will throw water on the idea of getting long and we would be thinking "Sell" upon seeing strong, bad news causing the Ugly situation. Not expected today however.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,059.00 - 1,058.00
If we get a HIGHER OPENING and a fast, early run up to this price zone then we can Sell the Sell Pivot target here. Use a 5 point stop and be willing to hold all day for lower prices later in the session although we would expect our 8 points to show up anytime. We do not expect this setup to occur today however.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,052.50
This price area will now become a temporary "line in the sand" and on a lower opening and early bounce off the lows we will most likely see prices stall here. If we are fortunate and we get the lower early action that bounces then this area should represent our approximate 8 point profit anyway so we could just let the day go. Let's see how things pan out with that strategy. Otherwise just be aware of prices hitting a brick wall here today.
Pro Trader's Action
Ideally we get a LOWER OPENING TODAY and an early push lower. If this is the case and the BreakDown is the first pivot hit then we should be able to get a higher move up off of it.
Be on the lookout for a move up 5 points off of the lower B/D and returns to the B/D again with the High Five not budging off a bearish setup. Today will be an important pivot day to see if we continue higher or get caught in an aberration on a higher move back up causing prices to stall and head lower again.
Plain and simple...if we can't get back up solidly over the 1052 area on lower early prices then we will have to consider more downside action to be on the way. Good Luck today with your trading and I'll see you in the action. Mohan