Mohan 14/11/03
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Mohan 14/11/03
Many financial/Government reports coming out today. Use extra caution. Early drop on higher open expected to find support and hold up prices today for mild up day.
Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, November 13, 2003:
Buy 1053.00/ Sell for up to +6 pts.
*Buy BreakDown Hour One pivot and sell the position later in the final hour of the session.
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today on the Morning Call.
Our Headline Call for Thursday did not pan out as planned with our expectation that the market would "hang up" near the highs and sell off later in the session.
Instead the prices took a nose dive in the first hour of trading setting up our alternative TCF Trade setup we gave you to buy the BreakDown.
We had a clear shot at getting long on the B/D as recommended in the "TCF Trade setups to watch for" section of the Morning Call on Thursday. The High Five were pretty bearish and you had to be quick to recognize that we were not going to get a 2-4 point discount on the trade below the B/D.
In cases like Thursday you will often find as you develop more and more skill in using our trading ideas that sometimes you will need to chase the market a bit to get in. It's a bit risky as you have to be willing to take a bit more heat on the stop but it's either that or miss getting in the trade (which is certainly no crime either). So we were trying to hold long from 1053.00 for the goal of 1061.00, 8 pt. goal when we got a fast spike later in the session to 1060 which fell back to 1057.25 in the same bar. My contacts on the floor said it was due to the accidental early release of Dell's earnings but that was never confirmed. After that occured I became a bit anxious to close out the trade with 6 pts. and we got a move to 1058-59 some time after that spike which gave us the chance.
Today's Call & Briefing:
I don't mind saying that today is going to be tricky and we may want to stand aside after the early (what we expect will be) fireworks.
We want to look to get short early today at a price just above the Sell Pivot target at 1061.00 IF WE GET THAT and then look to take profits and possibly stand aside (if we are so fortunate to get those early profits).
A lot is being assumed here for the morning however that is what is showing up on my radar screen.
So here's what we want to do:
If we open flat to higher then look to get short after prices drive through 1061(the Sell Pivot Target) and attempt to push up towards the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1065.25. So ideally we are getting short somewhere around 1062-63 in a "perfect world" trade this morning. (Yeah sure).
Now what I am saying is that if we do get short here and the prices drop off pretty quickly then we want to take profits and just be a bit extra careful about re-entering. Just use our regular criteria to trade after that but be more willing than usual to stand aside.
Not only is it Friday (which can often be tricky days) but also with the flurry of various government reports PLUS Greenspan making some address today (check our "Economic Calendar" on our Homepage at www.21stcenturyfutures.com) the market could be a bit herky jerky.
Our actual call for today is to see prices hold up after some early sell off on a higher opening and find support. If we are right and prices hold generally ABOVE THE OPENING PRICE RANGE ON THE CLOSE as expected then we should have a larger scale up move on Monday.
Remember: we are still at this point looking for 1081.00 to finish off an upside pattern before we change our underlying Market Force Mode to a sell mode. So somewhere along the line pretty soon we would be looking for these higher prices.
There are also some strong signals coming from our proprietary indicators for a sell off day today on the higher opening. However, this is why we feel that with a FAST EARLY SELL OFF FROM THE SELL PIVOT TARGET we could find support and simply hold the opening prices for today with, looking back, a relatively flat day after the early action.
This is a crystal clear call and as usual I am sticking my neck out by making such a precise call but this is what I am reading in my nightly homework when I calculate the Market Force indicators.
So after the early sell off from the Sell Pivot Target (if we get that) let's be on the lookout to either Buy the BreakDown again or possibly see a BreakOut buy that sticks. If we take one of these trades just be sure you have strongly matching High Five signals to accompany the trade. Otherwise just let the day go and we will get em on Monday.
Value Area: 1,053.00 - 1,056.60
Trade holding above 1056.60 is bullish. If we get the early SEll PIVOT TARGET described above then look for support to come in here at the middle or lower end of the VA on an early sell off to take profits.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,053.75 - 1,054.75
No trade at this target today. You can see more support here for an early sell off at 1061 or higher if we get that. Watch the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1049.50 for lower level support.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,061.00 - 1,060.00
Use the instructions in the "Today's Call and Briefing" to see if we can nail a trade up here at this area.
IF PRICES OPEN ABOVE THE 1065.25 PRICE THEN BE CAREFUL GETTING SHORT unless prices pull back to 1061.00 right away.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,052.50
We are still holding above the Pit Bull and this new number for today is right at the bottom of the VA near the Buy Pivot target so you can see this triple support coming in at the 1052-54 zone. Let's see how it holds up.
If our call for today is wrong and prices blow through this zone to the lower side then we could have a stronger bearish day for today although this is not expected. Always be on the lookout for a surprise Bear Ugly day. When you see the symptoms from some early strong negative news that sends the markets reeling then ignore the Headline Call and just think..."get short" under those circumstances.
Pro Trader's Action
Ok, so we are expecting some early sell off on a higher opening and seeing prices hit the Sell pivot target and slightly higher. Be careful to see that the prices don't "blow through" the 1065.00 area on a strong bullish High Five as this would signal a stretch towards the 1081.00 goal to finish off the bullish pattern we are in.
Let's see if we can get the early action predicted today and have some fun with a fast sell off that ends up holding up after the drop.
If none of this pans out then don't concern or think Ol' Mohan has cracked up. Just consider it was a call that didn't happen and use our regular TCF trade setups to get positioned. Just remember the excess amount of market influencing reports coming out today (check that calendar mentioned and learn more about these reports by clicking on the resource information on our Economic Calender we provide).
Have a great weekend and I'll update you late Sunday night. All the best to you and your family that supports you (us) in our trading business. Your trading friend, Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, November 13, 2003:
Buy 1053.00/ Sell for up to +6 pts.
*Buy BreakDown Hour One pivot and sell the position later in the final hour of the session.
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today on the Morning Call.
Our Headline Call for Thursday did not pan out as planned with our expectation that the market would "hang up" near the highs and sell off later in the session.
Instead the prices took a nose dive in the first hour of trading setting up our alternative TCF Trade setup we gave you to buy the BreakDown.
We had a clear shot at getting long on the B/D as recommended in the "TCF Trade setups to watch for" section of the Morning Call on Thursday. The High Five were pretty bearish and you had to be quick to recognize that we were not going to get a 2-4 point discount on the trade below the B/D.
In cases like Thursday you will often find as you develop more and more skill in using our trading ideas that sometimes you will need to chase the market a bit to get in. It's a bit risky as you have to be willing to take a bit more heat on the stop but it's either that or miss getting in the trade (which is certainly no crime either). So we were trying to hold long from 1053.00 for the goal of 1061.00, 8 pt. goal when we got a fast spike later in the session to 1060 which fell back to 1057.25 in the same bar. My contacts on the floor said it was due to the accidental early release of Dell's earnings but that was never confirmed. After that occured I became a bit anxious to close out the trade with 6 pts. and we got a move to 1058-59 some time after that spike which gave us the chance.
Today's Call & Briefing:
I don't mind saying that today is going to be tricky and we may want to stand aside after the early (what we expect will be) fireworks.
We want to look to get short early today at a price just above the Sell Pivot target at 1061.00 IF WE GET THAT and then look to take profits and possibly stand aside (if we are so fortunate to get those early profits).
A lot is being assumed here for the morning however that is what is showing up on my radar screen.
So here's what we want to do:
If we open flat to higher then look to get short after prices drive through 1061(the Sell Pivot Target) and attempt to push up towards the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1065.25. So ideally we are getting short somewhere around 1062-63 in a "perfect world" trade this morning. (Yeah sure).
Now what I am saying is that if we do get short here and the prices drop off pretty quickly then we want to take profits and just be a bit extra careful about re-entering. Just use our regular criteria to trade after that but be more willing than usual to stand aside.
Not only is it Friday (which can often be tricky days) but also with the flurry of various government reports PLUS Greenspan making some address today (check our "Economic Calendar" on our Homepage at www.21stcenturyfutures.com) the market could be a bit herky jerky.
Our actual call for today is to see prices hold up after some early sell off on a higher opening and find support. If we are right and prices hold generally ABOVE THE OPENING PRICE RANGE ON THE CLOSE as expected then we should have a larger scale up move on Monday.
Remember: we are still at this point looking for 1081.00 to finish off an upside pattern before we change our underlying Market Force Mode to a sell mode. So somewhere along the line pretty soon we would be looking for these higher prices.
There are also some strong signals coming from our proprietary indicators for a sell off day today on the higher opening. However, this is why we feel that with a FAST EARLY SELL OFF FROM THE SELL PIVOT TARGET we could find support and simply hold the opening prices for today with, looking back, a relatively flat day after the early action.
This is a crystal clear call and as usual I am sticking my neck out by making such a precise call but this is what I am reading in my nightly homework when I calculate the Market Force indicators.
So after the early sell off from the Sell Pivot Target (if we get that) let's be on the lookout to either Buy the BreakDown again or possibly see a BreakOut buy that sticks. If we take one of these trades just be sure you have strongly matching High Five signals to accompany the trade. Otherwise just let the day go and we will get em on Monday.
Value Area: 1,053.00 - 1,056.60
Trade holding above 1056.60 is bullish. If we get the early SEll PIVOT TARGET described above then look for support to come in here at the middle or lower end of the VA on an early sell off to take profits.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,053.75 - 1,054.75
No trade at this target today. You can see more support here for an early sell off at 1061 or higher if we get that. Watch the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1049.50 for lower level support.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,061.00 - 1,060.00
Use the instructions in the "Today's Call and Briefing" to see if we can nail a trade up here at this area.
IF PRICES OPEN ABOVE THE 1065.25 PRICE THEN BE CAREFUL GETTING SHORT unless prices pull back to 1061.00 right away.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,052.50
We are still holding above the Pit Bull and this new number for today is right at the bottom of the VA near the Buy Pivot target so you can see this triple support coming in at the 1052-54 zone. Let's see how it holds up.
If our call for today is wrong and prices blow through this zone to the lower side then we could have a stronger bearish day for today although this is not expected. Always be on the lookout for a surprise Bear Ugly day. When you see the symptoms from some early strong negative news that sends the markets reeling then ignore the Headline Call and just think..."get short" under those circumstances.
Pro Trader's Action
Ok, so we are expecting some early sell off on a higher opening and seeing prices hit the Sell pivot target and slightly higher. Be careful to see that the prices don't "blow through" the 1065.00 area on a strong bullish High Five as this would signal a stretch towards the 1081.00 goal to finish off the bullish pattern we are in.
Let's see if we can get the early action predicted today and have some fun with a fast sell off that ends up holding up after the drop.
If none of this pans out then don't concern or think Ol' Mohan has cracked up. Just consider it was a call that didn't happen and use our regular TCF trade setups to get positioned. Just remember the excess amount of market influencing reports coming out today (check that calendar mentioned and learn more about these reports by clicking on the resource information on our Economic Calender we provide).
Have a great weekend and I'll update you late Sunday night. All the best to you and your family that supports you (us) in our trading business. Your trading friend, Mohan
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- Mohan 141103.GIF (46.58 KiB) Visualizado 131 vezes
Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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