Novos contratos de arrendamento com maior queda desde a pandemia

[Dwer]

Look for higher, early prices to "hang up" near the highs most of the morning session and sell off later after 1:30 est.
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, November 12, 2003:
No TCF setups occured today.

* BreakOut was hit as suggested to watch for but TRIN was a bit too high to confirm trade.

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.

On our Headline Call we were looking for either Ugly or Lovely today...one or the other as our Market Force indicators were giving signals for a big move either way. It was a hard call so I offered you one of two scenarios which would be obvious after the opening.

Well, we got a lovely BreakOut Buy setup going into the B/O with a Flat Dow (up +50 points or less) and a screaming bullish NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index). The big problem was the TRIN WAS TOO HIGH (trading around .90+ at the time of the B/O) to really confirm the trade.

The end result was that the best strategy was to stand aside and although the market did rally 8 points off the BreakOut of 1050.00 it was a long, drawn out wait with a very nervous trade along the way. The nature of the B/O buy and Bear Ugly sell trades is that they ALL REQUIRE EXTREME PATIENCE.

Had the TRIN been lower around .80 or less the trade would have signaled. You have to remember that we are trading a precision system with exact rules and clear, proven methods. The key is to develop the discipline to follow the method correctly and if it doesn't set up right you simply have to stand aside.

Now some may consider that if it isn't setting up for a B/O Buy then it's a sell and this is correct under most circumstances. However, with the NAZ up over +18 points at the time of the BreakOut and the Advancing Issues swamping the Decliners you have to be logical about getting short. So anxiousness to trade for trading sakes aside, the correct path today was to stand aside.

If you took a chance and got long you made some good money and if you shorted the BreakOut +2-4 points around 1052-54.00 then you didn't get hurt if you saw the signs later in the day to cover em up.

High Five stayed bullish all day, the TRIN eventually dropped too, but prices were higher at that point.

No big deal. Just another trading day in the 4000 trading day career stretch...right?

Today's Call & Briefing:
For today we are going to be looking for higher prices going into the later part of the session after 1:30-2:00. Now this morning session could be filled with various traps on the way up so be careful.

We are looking to hit the Sell Pivot target short but with very specific instructions so be sure to read that section carefully.

We will be expecting the BreakOut to most likely be the first pivot hit today and if so prices will attempt to rally above it and breakout like on Wednesday. However, we expect it will be a trap for the bulls converting to the bull side as there were too many Bears piling on Wednesday's rally which helped push prices up nicely as they were cleaned out of the way.

Watch for symptoms in the High Five that were NOT present on Wednesday to look to get short. Higher TRIN, VIX up +.50 or more and a more even spread of advancing issues and decliners. Compare all of this with our High Five table shown in our Trading Handbook and you will be able to read what to do.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Today we will be looking to Sell the BreakOut after seeing the market attempt to B/O again above the Hour One highs. Check the High Five and if they are bullish add 2-4 points to that high and short em. Be prepared to wait for some time later in the session for the expected pullback.

If we get the BreakDown as the first Hour One pivot then we will most likely be prepared to Buy the BreakDown if there is no Bear Ugly news occuring. This is not expected as we are expecting the market to now come to a CROSSROAD after stretching out and making new highs. As mentioned we are looking for a stretch to 1081.00 area until further notice or change so if that is to be the case then we may see this action going into Monday.

If that occurs that would involve a mild pullback off the Highs today that recovers on Friday and continues to "hang up" near the Highs.

These are symptoms of bullish Rock and Roll action. This has been occuring overall since the Iraq conflict began this year with some light pullbacks in between. These are how bullish markets look once prices have moved up and analysts and traders look back and ask themselves what happened.

Don't you sometimes wish the markets were easier to read and trade? Sometimes at least?

Value Area: 1,045.80 - 1,055.10
Watch for prices to move above the Value Area and then fall back into it later in the session as outlined in our Headline Call.

If this situation pans out then the drop back into the Value area will be a confirmation for the short trade we would be in. If this occurs then look for the VA range to get covered down near the lows.

Compare this price area with our other pivots today to look to cover the short if we are fortunate to get set up for it.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,048.75 - 1,049.75
No Trade at this pivot today. Watch this area for support at the pivot or -4.25 stop/pivot at 1044.50.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,062.00 - 1,061.00
On an early push up to this price let's go ahead and sell this pivot. If the opening price is ON THIS PIVOT THEN LOOK FOR +4.25 RESISTANCE BEFORE SELLING SHORT.

We need to see how the market treats 1066.25 in the early going today. If they open at this price and push up but do not blow through 1066.25 then go ahead and short em. Use the 1067.00 area as a stop guide to cut the trade if prices hold slightly above the 1067.00 area.

If market opens flat to lower and they get some steam and run up here then sell em at the Sell Pivot target and use a 5 point stop at 1067.00.

If our scenario for higher early prices pans out then this area should stop the rise.

REMEMBER: we are looking for prices to "hang up" near the highs until later in the session. So if we get short here early and the prices pullback then look to take profits and reposition on the BreakOut or BreakDown later after the first hour assuming this Sell Pivot is hit in the first hour.

Where to take profits? Not sure. Just take some if and after the Sell Pivot gets hit and pulls back. It's a free money gift if it sets up. Don't wait for a big selloff ....that is not in the cards for today unless there is some emergency news (when hasn't it been an emergency the last 2 years?).

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,051.60
Well, as our Headline Call 2nd scenario pointed out on Wednesday, we were looking for prices to rise above the Pit Bull and get bullish again if we did not get a clear Bear Ugly opening.

Now we are seeing that the Pit Bull price zone is providing new support possibly on the way up to 1081.00 area if we do not get a strong pullback today or tomorrow on Friday.

We will be monitoring the OPENING PRICE carefully on both days to see if the market is REJECTING the opening as Fair Value. If prices hold above then we could make a stretch for the 1081 area mentioned a few days ago as we are still in a Buy Mode on the underlying Market Force indicators.

I have been looking and waiting for an aberration on this Buy Mode Force which usually occurs somewhere on the path to the upper levels to fufill the Buy Mode BUT PLAIN AND SIMPLE WE HAVE NOT HAD ONE.

This market is in a bullish mode since the middle of the so-called Iraq War when we clearly made a bullish call for the end of the year move. So far, so good and we just see em keep climbing without any substantial pullbacks.

We are ready and watching for one...but so far we have to let the market tell us what it wants to do. Not our opinions.

Pro Trader's Action
Overall for today we are going to be looking for higher prices in the first part of the session and a later pullback after the 1:30-2:00 est time. Often what occurs is the market will get punched up higher, "hang up" near the highs (like it did on Wednesday) and then the Mutual Fund managers will do some pruning after they come back from their 2 martini lunches in New York. Depending on how many weeds are in their garden usually will determnine the strength of the Thursday afternoon pullback.

It's a great indicator when it sets up. No huge pullback usually will mean a stable to higher Friday as the overanxious Bears start getting nervous and loading that side of the fence. If this be the case...then guess what happens on Monday? That's right, You guessed it.

Let's see if we can get a morning run up, wait for some stretching out of prices I am expecting up to the 1067 area, and then some heat on the rally later in the session when the gardeners come with their pruning shears.

Good luck today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan