Novos contratos de arrendamento com maior queda desde a pandemia

[Ulisses Pereira]

Cramer continua a insistir na sua teoria que na terceira vez que a FED subir as taxas, será hora de sair dos mercados.

"When the Fed Tightens, Watch Out for Selling"

By James J. Cramer
11/11/2003 11:12 AM EST



"Two hundred basis points? Three hundred basis points? Only 150 basis points?
Does it matter?

You bet it does.


Last night on "Kudlow & Cramer," Larry Kudlow said that the president and his advisers are willing to live with a 150 basis point increase in interest rates over the course of the next year.

But, I asked, is Fidelity? And what if the Federal Reserve tightens even more? The sellers of stocks determine whether the Fed is tightening too aggressively, and they will sell stocks hand over fist if the Fed gets vigilant. We have had too big a year to not have it happen.

Once the Fed starts tightening, you have to say that the easy money has been made. If the Fed tightens aggressively, the mutual fund playbook says to sell, and you won't make any money. For some, 150 basis points might be aggressive.

Can it be that binary? Will we really have to leave the table if there is an increase of 200 basis points or more, despite how low rates are now? How about all of those earnings? How about all of those takeovers? How about the liquidity?

When the Fed tightens, almost none of that matters. It becomes a big odds game, and the odds favor the bears.

Yes, when the Fed gets vigilant, this really is a binary game. And if the Fed raises quickly, we will have to sell quickly.

Of course, people can come up with tons of periods where that wasn't the case, where the market kept going up, where things stayed rosy longer than expected.

But for me, it's like cards. It is possible to hit and draw a three when you have 18.

But it's more likely that you'll bust.

So vigilance and the desire not to change tunes just because "it still looks great out there" will determine how much money is made, or lost, once the Fed starts the process. "

(in www.realmoney.com)