Nem depósitos nem certificados batem inflação. E agora?

[Dwer]

Market ready today to sell off.

Trade Setup Summary for Monday, November 3, 2003:
Sell 1059.75/ Cover for up to +5 pts. into the close.

* Sell BreakOut

Recap of Monday's Action:
Thank You for joining with us today.

Well, we got the fufillment of that 1060-61 area we talked about on Monday's briefing (and the past few briefings) with the pressure on after a second stab at the B/O later in the session after the first initial move at 12:12est.

The market opened on Monday about +3 handles higher and moved up to create the Hour One high at 1059.75 just a TICK below our projected fufillment area at 1060-61.

We sold the B/O later upon seeing the B/O price get tapped at 12:12est and patiently held short all day. Another later run back up held the stop and then near the close down they came.

We had mentioned that Monday would not be a down day but a pullback off the highs preparing for Tuesday's (today's) squash. We also mentioned this prediction at our seminar on Saturnsday in DelRay Beach, Florida. (thanks for coming gang)

Let's see if that will pan out for us.

There was not much to do on Monday but sell the B/O and hold short. The High Five were rather bullish but there was not any reason to buy the B/O as the Dow had rallied above the +50 point after the B/O was hit. Also of note was the VIX which was up above +40 at the time near the B/O giving us bearish hints inspite of the other High Five members. Of course our Headline Call was the main ingredient that has had us continuing to sell the rally action.

Today's Call & Briefing:
So the pattern is now complete and we should ideally see a sell off today with lower prices all around backed by a Bearish High Five. We will be on the lookout for a Bear Ugly day as we are in a news envirmonment where surprise negative incidents keep cropping up. Maybe the big one got saved for today now that the "insiders club" has loaded bearish positions, sold out stock, and got the public bullish (as we had predicted).

Let's see if and how they smack em down today. Should be an interesting day. Be on the lookout for a "Sneak Down" type day too where the markets slowly erode WITHOUT THE MARKET GIVING ANY STRONG NOTICE TO THE PUBLIC. These can often be intriguing days.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Be on the lookout as mentioned above either for a Bear Ugly type day or a sneak down market where the High Five GRADUALLY turn mega Bearish. These are often setup with "Buy Pivot Becomes Sell resistance" TCF trades.

Sell the BreakOut again if that is the first Hour One pivot hit and be on the lookout for a faster and larger scale rally if that occurs.

We will also be looking to sell the SEll PIVOT TARGET today if that is hit in the first hour.

Value Area: 1,057.00 - 1,060.00
The market closed below the Value Area giving us bearish bias on the market. If they move back up and try to strech above 1060 only to fall back into the VA then this is also a bearish sign.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,050.25 - 1,051.25
No trade at this target today as a Buy but look for the -4.25 stop/pivot to get hit at 1046.00 for a reflex move to 1049.25 to sell.

If this sets up remember that we have strong initial support at 1039 which we expect will get popped out to the downside soon. Maybe today, who knows!

Sell Pivot Target: 1,059.25 - 1,058.25
Let's go ahead and sell this target today and use a 5 point stop at 1064.25. Look for 63.50 to hold em back and let's see if we can get the trade back below the VA if this occurs and lower. That will confirm a larger scale move to the downside.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,040.60
If we can bust 1050.00 today with the Buy Pivot target and we get a reversal lower off this target as mentioned above then we should be on our way down to test this Pit Bull number which also correlates with the '1039.00 big support mentioned above. This double support here should get taken out if the High Five are mega bearish...the Market Force indicators are behind the lower crunch all the way.

FIRST GOAL LOWER IS 1030.00 TO FUFILL THE LOWER MOVE PATTERN.

Pro Trader's Action
Ok,so the pattern I have been talking about is fufilled at our 1060-61 area number and we got the light pullback into the close which fufilled the Headline Call for Monday nicely.

So now Today, Tuesday, will be big evidence and proof if we are going to get the crush to the downside we are expecting running em down to at least 1030.00.

The only thing that can thwart the lower plan will be a fast, hard crunch which panics the bulls and gets TOO MANY BEARS LOADING THE BOAT. This is why I think Tuesday will most likely be a CONTROLLED DOWNSIDE MOVE THAT IS DESIGNED TO KEEP THE PUBLIC OUT. This will remain to be seen today.

Good Luck with your trading today. STAY ON THE SELL SIDE and be patient.

I'll see you in the action. Mohan