Mohan 30/10/03
Enviado: 30/10/2003 12:16Market expected to pull back today but will find support as lower moves attracts buyers. CAUTION: Larger scale downside move to start soon.
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, October 29, 2003:
1) Buy at 1041.50/ Sell at 1045.00 +2.50 pts.
2) Sell at 1045.00/ Cover at breakeven to -2.00 pts. max.
*tight range market today hit the B/D as first Hour One pivot. Moved to B/O, did not violate 6 pt. stop and closed even to small loss.
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Thursday's Action.
On our Headline Call for Wednesday we were looking for higher prices to sell off and in our commentary stated that there was a chance that the market would find support at the opening price and push slightly higher giving us one more weak day up.
This is exactly what happened on Wednesday as they opened at 1042.50, staged a small rally up to 1048 half and then attempted to pull back but found support right at the opening price. With the B/D getting hit first as shown in the chart above and the Breakout getting nowhere it was one of those days where you just had to try and grab whatever points were offered.
I wanted to update you on the progress of the pattern that we discussed yesterday and what we saw was that Wednesday's action fufilled exactly what we were talking about. On days like these where the Market Force is to Sell Rallies we just have to try and get on the sell side even though the pattern needed to fufill itself with one more small day up. It was pretty much fast choppy action on Wednesday in a small range that did not offer much in the way of trading.
Today's Call & Briefing:
With the pattern finished off that we described yesterday with the small day up we are now faced with today's "line in the sand" type day.
What this means is that the markets right now are being set up for a larger scale down move. However, in order to do that we probably need to make a run at the 1061.00 fufillment number. The difficulty with that is there was not even a very noble attempt the last 2 days to hit the new month high over 1053.80 which is actually a bit odd.
Our Headline Call is going to be looking for us to keep selling rallies looking for a sell off today. However, we are expecting that there is a good chance that any drops will find support as buyers move in. There is a strong chance that this could occur around the Pit Bull 10 Day Moving Average.
Now, if this does occur then we are going to be on the lookout for a NEUTRAL type day today perhaps with a small down market and then the possibility of 2 more days up in the markets to finish off the pattern at the fufillment number at 1061.00.
They could sell off hard today and the pattern could be over to the upside. These type of days are hard to call on our service and I can just give you the two scenarios... one of which is going to unfold today.
So based on my past experience with these we just need to stay the course and keep selling rallies, use our 6 pt. stops like Wednesday, and if they do rally try and get short a bit higher above the BreakOut. Here is what is expected today for the TCF setups.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: First, we need to watch the BreakOut carefully today to be sure it is NOT setting up for a BreakOut Buy signal. This has a strong possibility for today if the B/O is hit first.
If this is NOT occuring with the B/O buy setup then we need to look to Sell the BreakOut. If the High Five are bullish then let's attempt to get a better price 2-4 points above the BreakOut to Sell em.
Although not expected be on the lookout for a surprise Bear Ugly type day with some bad news near the opening causing the markets to reel. If this is not occuring then we would want to be very careful if the B/D is hit first as the prices may slowly erode below that not being Bear Ugly but not really rallying off the B/D either.
Remember, I have given you the notice that we are in a special market situation right now so we cannnot expect things to move in the same way as usual.
Value Area: 1,043.20 - 1,047.60
Value is right in the key range where we saw the markets move on Wednesday. Trade above 1048.00 that cannot hold up and falls back into the VA is bearish. The market is bearish below 1043.20 but a stronger bearish signal comes in if they bust through 1038.00 to the downside.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,042.50 - 1,043.50
This Buy Pivot Target area is right at the bottom of the Value Area and will initially provide double support. Upon moving below this zone we next will want to watch the -4.25 stop/pivot at which puts us at 1038.25 which is very close to the Pit Bull which would be another very strong signal for support to come in on any sell off from higher early prices.
Watch this area if we get short and are holding short with 8 points calculated. This area could be more or less than 8 points off the early highs and we will need to consider this factor in taking profits if that is the trade that manifests.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,049.25 - 1,048.25
Watch this area for a trade if they push above this area early, stall and then trade back here all without violating the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1053.50. If this occurs then go short and see if we can take em down to support mentioned below at the 1038.00 area. You can see that this stop/pivot is once again right at the Months high and if they are going to give us a new month high they better get it in gear today or tommorrow.
Recall also that as we approach the end of the month it is a bullish traditional sign so we are strongly considering that support coming in today with a Neutral day showing up could produce 2 MORE DAYS UP if this occurs.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,038.60
This area has a good chance of becoming support today so keep your eye on this zone.
Pro Trader's Action
The Bottom Line for today is that we are simply looking to see if we are going to get a strong sell off day with the High Five cooperating and punching the markets lower. This is the first move that is expected.
Second, we will be very strongly on the lookout for SUPPORT TO COME IN from the buyers and drive the markets up to the opening again and never really sell off strongly. It would be similar to Wednesday's action only ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE with prices trying to push lower below the opening but buyers drawing the market back up to the opening price area creating a NEUTRAL TYPE DAY.
Be extra careful trading the BreakDown if that is the first pivot hit. Unless it's clearly a Bear Ugly day then the downside could be limited.
Good luck today in your trading today and all the best of success. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, October 29, 2003:
1) Buy at 1041.50/ Sell at 1045.00 +2.50 pts.
2) Sell at 1045.00/ Cover at breakeven to -2.00 pts. max.
*tight range market today hit the B/D as first Hour One pivot. Moved to B/O, did not violate 6 pt. stop and closed even to small loss.
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Thursday's Action.
On our Headline Call for Wednesday we were looking for higher prices to sell off and in our commentary stated that there was a chance that the market would find support at the opening price and push slightly higher giving us one more weak day up.
This is exactly what happened on Wednesday as they opened at 1042.50, staged a small rally up to 1048 half and then attempted to pull back but found support right at the opening price. With the B/D getting hit first as shown in the chart above and the Breakout getting nowhere it was one of those days where you just had to try and grab whatever points were offered.
I wanted to update you on the progress of the pattern that we discussed yesterday and what we saw was that Wednesday's action fufilled exactly what we were talking about. On days like these where the Market Force is to Sell Rallies we just have to try and get on the sell side even though the pattern needed to fufill itself with one more small day up. It was pretty much fast choppy action on Wednesday in a small range that did not offer much in the way of trading.
Today's Call & Briefing:
With the pattern finished off that we described yesterday with the small day up we are now faced with today's "line in the sand" type day.
What this means is that the markets right now are being set up for a larger scale down move. However, in order to do that we probably need to make a run at the 1061.00 fufillment number. The difficulty with that is there was not even a very noble attempt the last 2 days to hit the new month high over 1053.80 which is actually a bit odd.
Our Headline Call is going to be looking for us to keep selling rallies looking for a sell off today. However, we are expecting that there is a good chance that any drops will find support as buyers move in. There is a strong chance that this could occur around the Pit Bull 10 Day Moving Average.
Now, if this does occur then we are going to be on the lookout for a NEUTRAL type day today perhaps with a small down market and then the possibility of 2 more days up in the markets to finish off the pattern at the fufillment number at 1061.00.
They could sell off hard today and the pattern could be over to the upside. These type of days are hard to call on our service and I can just give you the two scenarios... one of which is going to unfold today.
So based on my past experience with these we just need to stay the course and keep selling rallies, use our 6 pt. stops like Wednesday, and if they do rally try and get short a bit higher above the BreakOut. Here is what is expected today for the TCF setups.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: First, we need to watch the BreakOut carefully today to be sure it is NOT setting up for a BreakOut Buy signal. This has a strong possibility for today if the B/O is hit first.
If this is NOT occuring with the B/O buy setup then we need to look to Sell the BreakOut. If the High Five are bullish then let's attempt to get a better price 2-4 points above the BreakOut to Sell em.
Although not expected be on the lookout for a surprise Bear Ugly type day with some bad news near the opening causing the markets to reel. If this is not occuring then we would want to be very careful if the B/D is hit first as the prices may slowly erode below that not being Bear Ugly but not really rallying off the B/D either.
Remember, I have given you the notice that we are in a special market situation right now so we cannnot expect things to move in the same way as usual.
Value Area: 1,043.20 - 1,047.60
Value is right in the key range where we saw the markets move on Wednesday. Trade above 1048.00 that cannot hold up and falls back into the VA is bearish. The market is bearish below 1043.20 but a stronger bearish signal comes in if they bust through 1038.00 to the downside.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,042.50 - 1,043.50
This Buy Pivot Target area is right at the bottom of the Value Area and will initially provide double support. Upon moving below this zone we next will want to watch the -4.25 stop/pivot at which puts us at 1038.25 which is very close to the Pit Bull which would be another very strong signal for support to come in on any sell off from higher early prices.
Watch this area if we get short and are holding short with 8 points calculated. This area could be more or less than 8 points off the early highs and we will need to consider this factor in taking profits if that is the trade that manifests.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,049.25 - 1,048.25
Watch this area for a trade if they push above this area early, stall and then trade back here all without violating the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1053.50. If this occurs then go short and see if we can take em down to support mentioned below at the 1038.00 area. You can see that this stop/pivot is once again right at the Months high and if they are going to give us a new month high they better get it in gear today or tommorrow.
Recall also that as we approach the end of the month it is a bullish traditional sign so we are strongly considering that support coming in today with a Neutral day showing up could produce 2 MORE DAYS UP if this occurs.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,038.60
This area has a good chance of becoming support today so keep your eye on this zone.
Pro Trader's Action
The Bottom Line for today is that we are simply looking to see if we are going to get a strong sell off day with the High Five cooperating and punching the markets lower. This is the first move that is expected.
Second, we will be very strongly on the lookout for SUPPORT TO COME IN from the buyers and drive the markets up to the opening again and never really sell off strongly. It would be similar to Wednesday's action only ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE with prices trying to push lower below the opening but buyers drawing the market back up to the opening price area creating a NEUTRAL TYPE DAY.
Be extra careful trading the BreakDown if that is the first pivot hit. Unless it's clearly a Bear Ugly day then the downside could be limited.
Good luck today in your trading today and all the best of success. Mohan