Mohan 24/10/03
Enviado: 24/10/2003 11:45Market expected to stage a decent rally today either off of early lows again or on a BreakOut of the Hour One highs. Look for strong rally to pullback off of highs later in the session.
Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, October 23, 2003:
Buy 1025.75 (or better)/ Sell up to +8 pts profit at 1033.75
* Buy the Buy Pivot Target on a move back to the lows after first hour transpired.
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.
SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: Today is the last day to register for our 21st Century Futures Seminar in DelRay Beach, Florida for November 1-2. We have many exciting surprises for you there and look forward to seeing all of you who have registered. We will be going into extreme details on all of the TCF Trade setups and variations for making maximum profit from working with the Morning Call. A splendid time is assured for all. Dress is casual/comfortable.
On our Headline Call for Thursday we were expecting the market to get hammered first which it did right off the opening HOWEVER we were ready to be buyers on that lower action after the prices played out.
Sitting here today you can see how valuable the advice I gave you was about "letting the early drop play out" as there was some very erratic action Thursday morning.
We had specifically talked about working the numbers around the Buy Pivot target at 1025.75, the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1021.50 (which we expected to hold the selling up) and the BreakDown Hour One pivot which came in at 102300 on the E Mini.
On that second drop down to that zone (which all the numbers lined up beautifully in) we HAD TO GET LONG. It was a nervous buy but with patience and faith in our methodology you can see that they pumped the market up right to +8 points of profit off the exact Buy Pivot Target. There was a slight window of opportunity to get the price a little lower but, as always in our business, you had to have your finger on the trigger of your electronic trading platform and your courage organized.
I don't expect these elements will ever change in S&P500 futures trading. Certainly some trades are easier than others and some, like Thursdays, are lightening fast in an enviroment designed to frighten and confuse the trader. But not us here at 21st Century Futures.
We alerted you in our Headline Call that this EXACT ACTION would occur and we gave you THE EXACT NUMBERS where it would occur. All done in the briefing the night before in California an hour before Jay Leno came on. By the way, I'm still working on a system to FADE the consensus thinking which is often portrayed in the writing of Jay's jokes. There is some good inside information there I'm convinced. LoL. Or maybe we shouldn't fade that action I'll keep you posted.
Anyway, congratulations if you got long down there. You're a brave soldier and I do want to repeat...Thursday's buy was not for the faint of heart. It was rock and roll. Key in the High Five was the failure of the Dow to really get rammed and the resiliancy of the NAZ when it would hit our bearish down minus 12-15 area and then bounce off of it. There were some other hints in the midst of the action but overall we were confident of the upside turnaround due to our TCF Market Force indicators.
Today's Call & Briefing:
On Todays' Headline Call we are going to be looking for a solid rally to occur. Thursday's action loaded the terrified Bears in a big way on the short side and now they need to be cleaned out of those positions a bit today
I am expecting the rally will be a decent one but guaging the strength in advance is a bit difficult to do. We will just have to look at the High Five and the strength/weakness of the candle movements as things develop.
We will be watching to see if we get another early, hard drop to confirm further repeated upside but our expectation is they will rally off of a BreakOut Buy type scenario instead. As we get within an hour of the opening we will know more and then certainly after the first 20-30 minutes of trading certain things will be revealed by the price/reaction movements.
We have pretty strong initial resistance at 1045-46 for today so I am not expecting much beyond that. If we do get a BreakOut movement in that direction then we will take out the +4.25 on the Sell Pivot target so be watching for a possible reversal off of that with a "Sell Pivot Becomes Buy support" trade shown clearly in the Trading Handbook.
We will be primarily watching to see if we get an official TCF BreakOut Buy today on the Hour One B/O pivot. We would look for the Dow to be flat at the time of the B/O (up+50 or less) and NAZ strong leading the way up being up +12-15 or more. Watch for TRIN to be below .80 ideally and VIX lower.
If this is NOT occuring and a larger rally has already occured BEFORE the first hour is complete then we will be looking to let the higher prices play out some and then look to Sell the B/O.
We can also look to Buy the BreakDown if that is the first Hour One Pivot to get hit. Today is FRIDAY so be aware that often Friday's are often more difficult to trade due to choppiness of position squarring from larger traders for the weekend. Often large, early moves will occur only to go flat for the rest of the day. If there is any confusion or difficulty in reading what is going on then let the day go. We are more willing to do this on Friday's then on other trading days of the week.
Value Area: 1,027.10 - 1,031.50
Trade holding above the Value Area is bullish for today. Price targets upside are 1034-36, 1039, PIT BULL AT 1041 AREA, 1043, and then big resistance at 1045-46.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,023.50 - 1,024.50
An early drop to this Buy Pivot Target can be taken. Use a 5 point stop and hold long for the BreakOut as a confirmation to take profits and go short in the case of a B/O NOT setting up for a Buy B/O or hold long into the B/O if the Buy criteria is setting up.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,034.00 - 1,033.00
No Trade at this pivot today. Watch the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1038.25 to possibly give us a reversal to Buy as described in the "Today's Call" section.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,041.20
We need to continue to focus on selling rallies below this number. We may try and push over it today but most likely prices that move into the 40's are going to hit a brick wall at the Pit Bull. We still have overhead resistance at 1045.00 but 1041.00 will be a big ?? Mark/ "line in the sand" at this stage of the S&P500 market.
Pro Trader's Action
Remember that today is Friday and as such we always want to be a little extra careful in getting in a trade looking for our Intra Day swing 8-10 point trade.
We can use the above instructions to get aboard a clear B/O Buy or Fade a strong early rally after the rally plays itself out a little into mid session. We just don't want to get caught in a trade that is not going to move for us due the larger traders packing up for the weekend after sqarring their positions.
The last few days have seen some good moves and if you are a trial subscriber now is a good time to JOIN US FOR A SUBSCRIPTION AND GET OUR TRADING HANDBOOK ON LINE TODAY so you can study it over the weekend.
Sign up today for our seminar coming up on November 1st if you are sitting on the fence. I am not planning on doing any more seminars of this type for quite some time as far as all the scheduling is going. For those coming I will look forward to seeing you there in DelRay Beach. I'll be flying in early and you'll see me walking around the hotel getting things set up so be sure to come up and say Hi. I look forward to meeting you.
Have a great weekend and all the best to you and your loved ones who support you in this great Chess Game of life.... Trading the S&P500 Futures.
Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, October 23, 2003:
Buy 1025.75 (or better)/ Sell up to +8 pts profit at 1033.75
* Buy the Buy Pivot Target on a move back to the lows after first hour transpired.
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.
SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: Today is the last day to register for our 21st Century Futures Seminar in DelRay Beach, Florida for November 1-2. We have many exciting surprises for you there and look forward to seeing all of you who have registered. We will be going into extreme details on all of the TCF Trade setups and variations for making maximum profit from working with the Morning Call. A splendid time is assured for all. Dress is casual/comfortable.
On our Headline Call for Thursday we were expecting the market to get hammered first which it did right off the opening HOWEVER we were ready to be buyers on that lower action after the prices played out.
Sitting here today you can see how valuable the advice I gave you was about "letting the early drop play out" as there was some very erratic action Thursday morning.
We had specifically talked about working the numbers around the Buy Pivot target at 1025.75, the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1021.50 (which we expected to hold the selling up) and the BreakDown Hour One pivot which came in at 102300 on the E Mini.
On that second drop down to that zone (which all the numbers lined up beautifully in) we HAD TO GET LONG. It was a nervous buy but with patience and faith in our methodology you can see that they pumped the market up right to +8 points of profit off the exact Buy Pivot Target. There was a slight window of opportunity to get the price a little lower but, as always in our business, you had to have your finger on the trigger of your electronic trading platform and your courage organized.
I don't expect these elements will ever change in S&P500 futures trading. Certainly some trades are easier than others and some, like Thursdays, are lightening fast in an enviroment designed to frighten and confuse the trader. But not us here at 21st Century Futures.
We alerted you in our Headline Call that this EXACT ACTION would occur and we gave you THE EXACT NUMBERS where it would occur. All done in the briefing the night before in California an hour before Jay Leno came on. By the way, I'm still working on a system to FADE the consensus thinking which is often portrayed in the writing of Jay's jokes. There is some good inside information there I'm convinced. LoL. Or maybe we shouldn't fade that action I'll keep you posted.
Anyway, congratulations if you got long down there. You're a brave soldier and I do want to repeat...Thursday's buy was not for the faint of heart. It was rock and roll. Key in the High Five was the failure of the Dow to really get rammed and the resiliancy of the NAZ when it would hit our bearish down minus 12-15 area and then bounce off of it. There were some other hints in the midst of the action but overall we were confident of the upside turnaround due to our TCF Market Force indicators.
Today's Call & Briefing:
On Todays' Headline Call we are going to be looking for a solid rally to occur. Thursday's action loaded the terrified Bears in a big way on the short side and now they need to be cleaned out of those positions a bit today
I am expecting the rally will be a decent one but guaging the strength in advance is a bit difficult to do. We will just have to look at the High Five and the strength/weakness of the candle movements as things develop.
We will be watching to see if we get another early, hard drop to confirm further repeated upside but our expectation is they will rally off of a BreakOut Buy type scenario instead. As we get within an hour of the opening we will know more and then certainly after the first 20-30 minutes of trading certain things will be revealed by the price/reaction movements.
We have pretty strong initial resistance at 1045-46 for today so I am not expecting much beyond that. If we do get a BreakOut movement in that direction then we will take out the +4.25 on the Sell Pivot target so be watching for a possible reversal off of that with a "Sell Pivot Becomes Buy support" trade shown clearly in the Trading Handbook.
We will be primarily watching to see if we get an official TCF BreakOut Buy today on the Hour One B/O pivot. We would look for the Dow to be flat at the time of the B/O (up+50 or less) and NAZ strong leading the way up being up +12-15 or more. Watch for TRIN to be below .80 ideally and VIX lower.
If this is NOT occuring and a larger rally has already occured BEFORE the first hour is complete then we will be looking to let the higher prices play out some and then look to Sell the B/O.
We can also look to Buy the BreakDown if that is the first Hour One Pivot to get hit. Today is FRIDAY so be aware that often Friday's are often more difficult to trade due to choppiness of position squarring from larger traders for the weekend. Often large, early moves will occur only to go flat for the rest of the day. If there is any confusion or difficulty in reading what is going on then let the day go. We are more willing to do this on Friday's then on other trading days of the week.
Value Area: 1,027.10 - 1,031.50
Trade holding above the Value Area is bullish for today. Price targets upside are 1034-36, 1039, PIT BULL AT 1041 AREA, 1043, and then big resistance at 1045-46.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,023.50 - 1,024.50
An early drop to this Buy Pivot Target can be taken. Use a 5 point stop and hold long for the BreakOut as a confirmation to take profits and go short in the case of a B/O NOT setting up for a Buy B/O or hold long into the B/O if the Buy criteria is setting up.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,034.00 - 1,033.00
No Trade at this pivot today. Watch the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1038.25 to possibly give us a reversal to Buy as described in the "Today's Call" section.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,041.20
We need to continue to focus on selling rallies below this number. We may try and push over it today but most likely prices that move into the 40's are going to hit a brick wall at the Pit Bull. We still have overhead resistance at 1045.00 but 1041.00 will be a big ?? Mark/ "line in the sand" at this stage of the S&P500 market.
Pro Trader's Action
Remember that today is Friday and as such we always want to be a little extra careful in getting in a trade looking for our Intra Day swing 8-10 point trade.
We can use the above instructions to get aboard a clear B/O Buy or Fade a strong early rally after the rally plays itself out a little into mid session. We just don't want to get caught in a trade that is not going to move for us due the larger traders packing up for the weekend after sqarring their positions.
The last few days have seen some good moves and if you are a trial subscriber now is a good time to JOIN US FOR A SUBSCRIPTION AND GET OUR TRADING HANDBOOK ON LINE TODAY so you can study it over the weekend.
Sign up today for our seminar coming up on November 1st if you are sitting on the fence. I am not planning on doing any more seminars of this type for quite some time as far as all the scheduling is going. For those coming I will look forward to seeing you there in DelRay Beach. I'll be flying in early and you'll see me walking around the hotel getting things set up so be sure to come up and say Hi. I look forward to meeting you.
Have a great weekend and all the best to you and your loved ones who support you in this great Chess Game of life.... Trading the S&P500 Futures.
Mohan