Mohan 23/10/03
Enviado: 23/10/2003 13:41Market has lower to go today HOWEVER we will be looking to buy drops for a rally off the early lows.
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, October 22, 2003:
No TCF Setups occurred today.
* See Recap for more information. There was no staggering negative news to drive markets 8-10 points below the lows. Early, strong gap lower of 8 handles (yikes) completed a lot of the selling force. The mega bearish High Five would have prevented us from looking to buy.
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.
We got the Mega Bearish slam in the markets we had heavily warned about on Wednesday's briefing with a huge 8 point gap lower on the opening. The High Five moved into very strong Bearish readings and there was negative news in relation to earnings.
Now the confusing part about Wednesday's action was that after the shock drop in the markets things settled a bit but later at around 1:30 est the market took another dive based on (according to Briefing.com) "news of a class action legislation being blocked by U.S. has surfaced". Now I searched all over the news media trying to find out more information about this thinking it would be significant news to fuel a TRUE Bear Ugly type day ....but found nothing. Did any of you see any additional news about what Briefing.com was talking about? Let me know if you did. Thanks.
Anyway, upon locating nothing MAJOR in this regards I had to assume we were not going to get the full depth sell off associated with a true Bear Ugly day. This indeed turned out to be the fact as the prices dropped further but later pushed up into the close. True Bear Ugly days sell off usually into the last closing minutes as everyone bails from any bullish positions. Such was not the case on Wednesday.
Those of you who sold the BreakDown anyway when the early B/D action occured did very nicely if you patiently held short with prices moving from the B/D (1032.25) all the way down as far as a tick away from 6 points lower. Amazing how the TCF numbers work in groups of 2-4-6 isn't it. And even if you BOUGHT the B/D minus (-) 4.00 pts. to compensate for the Mega Bearish High Five at 1028.25 you did not lose money if you held on into the close.
So although officially we did not see an exact TCF setup those who traded according to the Handbook FROM EITHER SIDE were able to make some points out of today's action. We will not record any profitable trade however in our TCF Trade Recap section.
Today's Call & Briefing:
On today's Headline Call our Market Force indicators are telling us that there is lower to go but we want to be looking to Buy Drops and expect a rally off those early lows put in.
Now I want you to be sure and understand that we need to let the lower action play out some. In other words, if we get the expected lower action be ready to buy but also don't be overly anxious and be sure to try and get the best price by watching HOW the lows are put in. In this way if we ideally get the early lows AND THEN THE BREAKDOWN IS HIT FIRST AGAIN as the first Hour One pivot, then we can nail the long position there. If the High Five are really bearish again then look to subtract 2-4 points from those lows and get a better deal on the price entry.
We want to compare also the lows put in early today with the Buy Pivot target (1025.75-26.75) with the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1021.50. That is ideally where the selling will stop and we will get the reflex bounce. Now if prices blow through that 21.50 then we are going to have to be ready for a continued shredding of the prices. I am not expecting this at all today. Our Market Force indicators are in a Buy Mode and any lower action now should just be temporary.
I won't put in a "TCF Trade setups for today" section here as we have described the action above we would be most inclined towards. Now if the BREAKOUT is the first Hour One pivot hit today (not expected) then we will look to be on the short side of that depending on how things setup according to our TCF trading rules and principles. See below for information on the Buy/Sell Pivot Targets.
Value Area: 1,029.40 - 1,036.20
This is a nice Value Area for determining today's bias. The higher top of the VA should provide some good resistance at least initially on a higher open and early run up. The Sell Pivot Target is also situated here. On a lower early move seeing pressure holding prices down for the BreakDown Hour One pivot to get hit first will be ideal for our strategy described in the "Today's Call" section to pan out.
Prices holding below 1029.40 should be ready to go down and test the 1019.00 support discussed on Tuesday and Wednesday's Morning Call. This would bring us close to our first MAJOR SUPPORT level of 1015-16.00 we discussed on Tuesday also. We are on the way down there now it appears. Let's see where the storm blows.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,025.75 - 1,026.75
As described above in the "Today's Call" section, let's be careful buying here directly but look to compare it with the Hour One BreakDown low and the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1021.50 to do our buying of the early squash.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,035.75 - 1,034.75
No trade at this pivot. Watch +4.25 stop/pivot at 1040.00 for big resistance overhead if we attempt an early rally. If we get some visible resistance up there then go ahead and try and short em there for continued lower prices later we will try to buy into. The key is the High Five readings at the time of this price area getting hit. The problem is that if it occurs early the High Five readings are not as pure due to the lower participation of market players in the first hour. The High Five are always best read later in the session 2-3 hours AFTER the opening. If trading wasn't a lot of educated risk taking and LUCK then it wouldn't be trading. You and I wouldn't have a job either if EVERYONE could just jump in the market with "guaranteed" trading methods that would produce profits everytime. RISK is the REASON for this game...and also why it's so much FUN! Right Gang?
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,042.20
We have decisively CROSSED OVER to the Sell Rallies side of the Pit Bull
From an academic point of view for those of you who are new to watching the Morning Call this move below the Pit Bull on a confirmed CROSSOVER ALERT that we issued shows you how we use this 10 day Moving average.
You can use the example of how we issued the CROSSOVER ALERT, described how if the prices stagnated near the Pit Bull it would be bullish bias, and how if the bias was bearish they would run decisively through the Pit Bull to the downside. So kindly keep this entire example in your notes so you can learn to use this moving average indicator and understand this section better as we move forward in your trading skill development.
Pro Trader's Action
Well, we got the Mega Bearish slam to the downside we were looking for. Now what? As our Headline Call says...now we want to look to buy drops. Why? Isn't it a new downtrend? Well, maybe but so far there were simply TOO MANY BEARS LEAPING ALL OVER THE DROP. That means the public consensus is still a bit paranoid and jumpy ready to give up the bullish mentality TOO QUICKLY. That means usually that we have higher to go from here. Sure, we need to fufill that 1016.00 area still but that is not far below the overnight lows put in at 1024.00 area.
So let's see if we can get that fufilled today or if they rally em up off slightly higher lows.
URGENT SPECIAL NOTICE: TODAY AND TOMORROW IS THE LAST DAY YOU CAN SIGN UP FOR MY SPECIAL FLORIDA SEMNAR ON NOVEMBER 1-2. We are very close to sold out and the next 2 days will be final. I am not planning on doing another seminar of this type for quite some time. I got an email from one of our subscribers who attended our TCF seminar recently in San Diego. He said, "thanks Mohan, this seminar was worth 10 times the cost I payed to come. Please be sure to put me on your list for the auto trade program too as I want to invest in that". I have had literally hundreds of similar emails over the last few weeks. So if you are inclined to come and want to have lots of fun while we work hard and dig deeply into the TCF Trade setups then be sure and call our office today to sign up. Call 1(800) 806-4801 and I will see you there in a week.
Good luck in your trading today. Let the drop play out if they get em going to the downside again early and look to be a buyer. I'll see you in the action.
Have fun, Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, October 22, 2003:
No TCF Setups occurred today.
* See Recap for more information. There was no staggering negative news to drive markets 8-10 points below the lows. Early, strong gap lower of 8 handles (yikes) completed a lot of the selling force. The mega bearish High Five would have prevented us from looking to buy.
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.
We got the Mega Bearish slam in the markets we had heavily warned about on Wednesday's briefing with a huge 8 point gap lower on the opening. The High Five moved into very strong Bearish readings and there was negative news in relation to earnings.
Now the confusing part about Wednesday's action was that after the shock drop in the markets things settled a bit but later at around 1:30 est the market took another dive based on (according to Briefing.com) "news of a class action legislation being blocked by U.S. has surfaced". Now I searched all over the news media trying to find out more information about this thinking it would be significant news to fuel a TRUE Bear Ugly type day ....but found nothing. Did any of you see any additional news about what Briefing.com was talking about? Let me know if you did. Thanks.
Anyway, upon locating nothing MAJOR in this regards I had to assume we were not going to get the full depth sell off associated with a true Bear Ugly day. This indeed turned out to be the fact as the prices dropped further but later pushed up into the close. True Bear Ugly days sell off usually into the last closing minutes as everyone bails from any bullish positions. Such was not the case on Wednesday.
Those of you who sold the BreakDown anyway when the early B/D action occured did very nicely if you patiently held short with prices moving from the B/D (1032.25) all the way down as far as a tick away from 6 points lower. Amazing how the TCF numbers work in groups of 2-4-6 isn't it. And even if you BOUGHT the B/D minus (-) 4.00 pts. to compensate for the Mega Bearish High Five at 1028.25 you did not lose money if you held on into the close.
So although officially we did not see an exact TCF setup those who traded according to the Handbook FROM EITHER SIDE were able to make some points out of today's action. We will not record any profitable trade however in our TCF Trade Recap section.
Today's Call & Briefing:
On today's Headline Call our Market Force indicators are telling us that there is lower to go but we want to be looking to Buy Drops and expect a rally off those early lows put in.
Now I want you to be sure and understand that we need to let the lower action play out some. In other words, if we get the expected lower action be ready to buy but also don't be overly anxious and be sure to try and get the best price by watching HOW the lows are put in. In this way if we ideally get the early lows AND THEN THE BREAKDOWN IS HIT FIRST AGAIN as the first Hour One pivot, then we can nail the long position there. If the High Five are really bearish again then look to subtract 2-4 points from those lows and get a better deal on the price entry.
We want to compare also the lows put in early today with the Buy Pivot target (1025.75-26.75) with the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1021.50. That is ideally where the selling will stop and we will get the reflex bounce. Now if prices blow through that 21.50 then we are going to have to be ready for a continued shredding of the prices. I am not expecting this at all today. Our Market Force indicators are in a Buy Mode and any lower action now should just be temporary.
I won't put in a "TCF Trade setups for today" section here as we have described the action above we would be most inclined towards. Now if the BREAKOUT is the first Hour One pivot hit today (not expected) then we will look to be on the short side of that depending on how things setup according to our TCF trading rules and principles. See below for information on the Buy/Sell Pivot Targets.
Value Area: 1,029.40 - 1,036.20
This is a nice Value Area for determining today's bias. The higher top of the VA should provide some good resistance at least initially on a higher open and early run up. The Sell Pivot Target is also situated here. On a lower early move seeing pressure holding prices down for the BreakDown Hour One pivot to get hit first will be ideal for our strategy described in the "Today's Call" section to pan out.
Prices holding below 1029.40 should be ready to go down and test the 1019.00 support discussed on Tuesday and Wednesday's Morning Call. This would bring us close to our first MAJOR SUPPORT level of 1015-16.00 we discussed on Tuesday also. We are on the way down there now it appears. Let's see where the storm blows.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,025.75 - 1,026.75
As described above in the "Today's Call" section, let's be careful buying here directly but look to compare it with the Hour One BreakDown low and the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1021.50 to do our buying of the early squash.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,035.75 - 1,034.75
No trade at this pivot. Watch +4.25 stop/pivot at 1040.00 for big resistance overhead if we attempt an early rally. If we get some visible resistance up there then go ahead and try and short em there for continued lower prices later we will try to buy into. The key is the High Five readings at the time of this price area getting hit. The problem is that if it occurs early the High Five readings are not as pure due to the lower participation of market players in the first hour. The High Five are always best read later in the session 2-3 hours AFTER the opening. If trading wasn't a lot of educated risk taking and LUCK then it wouldn't be trading. You and I wouldn't have a job either if EVERYONE could just jump in the market with "guaranteed" trading methods that would produce profits everytime. RISK is the REASON for this game...and also why it's so much FUN! Right Gang?
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,042.20
We have decisively CROSSED OVER to the Sell Rallies side of the Pit Bull
From an academic point of view for those of you who are new to watching the Morning Call this move below the Pit Bull on a confirmed CROSSOVER ALERT that we issued shows you how we use this 10 day Moving average.
You can use the example of how we issued the CROSSOVER ALERT, described how if the prices stagnated near the Pit Bull it would be bullish bias, and how if the bias was bearish they would run decisively through the Pit Bull to the downside. So kindly keep this entire example in your notes so you can learn to use this moving average indicator and understand this section better as we move forward in your trading skill development.
Pro Trader's Action
Well, we got the Mega Bearish slam to the downside we were looking for. Now what? As our Headline Call says...now we want to look to buy drops. Why? Isn't it a new downtrend? Well, maybe but so far there were simply TOO MANY BEARS LEAPING ALL OVER THE DROP. That means the public consensus is still a bit paranoid and jumpy ready to give up the bullish mentality TOO QUICKLY. That means usually that we have higher to go from here. Sure, we need to fufill that 1016.00 area still but that is not far below the overnight lows put in at 1024.00 area.
So let's see if we can get that fufilled today or if they rally em up off slightly higher lows.
URGENT SPECIAL NOTICE: TODAY AND TOMORROW IS THE LAST DAY YOU CAN SIGN UP FOR MY SPECIAL FLORIDA SEMNAR ON NOVEMBER 1-2. We are very close to sold out and the next 2 days will be final. I am not planning on doing another seminar of this type for quite some time. I got an email from one of our subscribers who attended our TCF seminar recently in San Diego. He said, "thanks Mohan, this seminar was worth 10 times the cost I payed to come. Please be sure to put me on your list for the auto trade program too as I want to invest in that". I have had literally hundreds of similar emails over the last few weeks. So if you are inclined to come and want to have lots of fun while we work hard and dig deeply into the TCF Trade setups then be sure and call our office today to sign up. Call 1(800) 806-4801 and I will see you there in a week.
Good luck in your trading today. Let the drop play out if they get em going to the downside again early and look to be a buyer. I'll see you in the action.
Have fun, Mohan