THE Street Insight - Doug Kass (Resumo de ontem)
Enviado: 21/10/2003 8:54Positions Update, Part II
10/20/03 08:32 AM EDT
Bullish LEA HON LYO PX KRI NYT TWX MBG HLYW PPH
Bearish PHM TOL BWA DHR APD DJ DIS BOW RTH TGT HDI AZR HET MOVI QQQ DIA SMH BBH
Update VIA CCU FOX GE CAL EK
I plan to expand my shorts in the cyclical sector.
Retail remains pregnant with short opportunities, as well.
Here are the rest of my position updates:
Cyclical: This is an area in which I plan to expand shorts, reflecting my negative view of the economy's delta for 2004. I remain short Pulte Homes (PHM:NYSE) and Toll Brothers (TOL:NYSE). Pair trades include
Lear (LES:NYSE)/Borg Warner (BWA:NYSE)
Honeywell (HON:NYSE)/Danaher (DHR:NYSE) (imbalance short)
Lyondell (LYO:NYSE) and Praxair (PX:NYSE)/Air Products (APD:NYSE)
Knight Ridder (KRI:NYSE) and The New York Times (NYT:NYSE)/Dow Jones (DJ:NYSE)
I am out of my media longs (Viacom (VIA:NYSE), Clear Channel (CCU:NYSE) and Fox Broadcasting (FOX:NYSE)). I also covered my General Electric (GE:NYSE) short, increased the size of my Disney (DIS:NYSE) and Bowater (BOW:NYSE) shorts and enlarged my Time Warner (TWX:NYSE) long. I covered my Continental Airlines (CAL:NYSE) short on Friday when the stock was down by nearly 10% that day. I have liquidated most of my integrated oil longs.
Retail: Like the cyclical arena, retail remains pregnant with short opportunities, particularly if my "consumer is spent-up, not pent-up" thesis is accurate. I remain short Retail HOLDRs (RTH:Amex), Target (TGT:NYSE) and Harley-Davidson (HDI:NYSE) (which reported its first flat year-over-year revenue comparison). Atlantic City remains a short target for me because Aztar (AZR:NYSE) (upgraded by Deutsche today) and Harrah's (HET:NYSE) are being hurt by the Borgata as well as expanding jurisdictions allowing slot machines in the Midwest. I remain long Mandalay Bay (MBG:NYSE) (numbers should be guided higher). I am paired with Hollywood (HLYW:Nasdaq)/Movie Gallery (MOVI:Nasdaq).
Miscellaneous: I liquidated my gold short and sold Eastman Kodak (EK:NYSE). I remain short the following ETFs: Nasdaq 100 Trust Series, Diamonds, Semiconductor HOLDRs, Biotechnology HOLDRs and Retail HOLDRs, as mentioned in Part I. I am long Biopharamaceutical HOLDRs.
Long LEA, HON, LYO, PX, KRI, NYT, TWX, MBG, HLYW, PPH; short PHM, TOL, BWA, DHR, APD, DJ, DIS, BOW, RTH, TGT, HDI, AZR, HET, MOVI, QQQ, DIA, SMH, BBH
Positions Update
10/20/03 08:34 AM EDT
Bullish BAC PPH MCD KFT UVN KR K SBC
Bearish IFX MU ALTR SMH QQQ LAB GS WB JPM BBH GIS TV ABS COX
Update TXN FTN NCF C BLS CMCSA
Last week was full of sound and fury, signifying nothing, as the major indices recorded little change.
Technology got schmeissed late in the week.
This week, we continue a feature started several weeks ago in which I update some of my larger holdings by broad industry categories and highlight some of the portfolio changes I made during the week. It is important to recognize that the holdings I mention are by no means recommendations, nor are they a complete list of holdings.
As I am aware that Street Insight subscribers have differing agendas -- traders, investors and observers -- I try to give the rationale of both my trading and investing ideas. With that introduction, let's review and update some of the changes I made last week in my portfolios.
Last week was full of sound and fury, signifying nothing, as the major indices recorded little change. Nevertheless, an objective observer must give the bulls the upper hand in light of the spike in share prices since the March lows.
Technology: This sector got schmeissed late in the week after performing well most of the week. I remain short Infineon Technologies (IFX:NYSE), Micron (MU:NYSE), Altera (ALTR:Nasdaq), Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH:Amex) and Nasdaq 100 Trust Series (QQQ:Amex). (Bellwether Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE) reports its third quarter today).
Financial: My favorite short remains LaBranche (LAB:NYSE) because the specialist system's death seems likely to be hastened by Grasso's departure. I was interviewed in Barron's this weekend on the same subject. Goldman Sachs (GS:NYSE), another short, seems likely to ultimately write off its $6.5 billion investment in Spear Leeds over time. Takeover seems likely in the banking sector, reflecting the steady levitation of bank stocks and the heightened acquisition currency for those deals. First Tennessee (FTN:NYSE) and National Commerce (NCF:NYSE) (earnings upgraded by the Street last week) remain my favorite acquisition targets. I am short (and added to) the likely acquirers: Wachovia (WB:NYSE) and J.P. Morgan (JPM:NYSE) (I covered my Citigroup (C:NYSE) short last week). I remain long Bank of America (BAC:NYSE) because I believe the mutual fund timing crisis has unfairly penalized its shares.
Consumer Non-Cyclical: In my favorite long/favorite short post last week, I mentioned that Biotechnology HOLDRs (BBH:Amex) are my favorite short (shares are close to breaking a neckline in a head-and-shoulders pattern and got hurt badly in Friday's correction). I own Pharmaceutical HOLDRs (PPH:Amex) against my BBH position, in a pair (there was an excellent piece in Sunday's Washington Post on the prescription-drug industry). I remain long McDonald's (MCD:NYSE) based on the positive impact a menu change has had on the turn in comps. The consumer non-cyclical sector remains rich in pair opportunities. Some of my existing pairs include:
Kraft (KFT:NYSE)/General Mills (GIS:NYSE) (imbalance long over short)
Univision (UVN:NYSE)/Grupo Televisa (TV:NYSE)
Kroger (KR:NYSE) and Kellogg (K:NYSE)/Albertson's (ABS:NYSE).
I covered my BellSouth (BLS:NYSE) short and sold my Comcast (CMCSA:Nasdaq) long, leaving a pair of SBC (SBC:NYSE)/Cox Broadcasting (COX:NYSE).
Up next: my cyclical, retail and miscellaneous updates!
Long BAC, PPH, MCD, KFT, UVN, KR, K, SBC, FTN, NCF; short IFX, MU, ALTR, SMH, QQQ, LAB, GS, WB, JPM, BBH, GIS, TV, ABS, COX
Watching Wal-Mart for Thesis Confirmation
10/20/03 09:58 AM EDT
Update WMT
Wal-Mart reports that sales are 'in line' with expectations last week.
I am watching WMT's figures closely to determine the validity of the 'spent up, not pent up' thesis.
No positions in stocks mentioned
Favorite Short: Still BBH
10/20/03 11:15 AM EDT
Bearish BBH
A technical downgrade on the biotech sector keeps this short atop my list.
Smith Barney's technical analyst is downgrading the biotech sector, solely on a technical basis. My favorite short remains the Biotech HOLDRs (BBH:Amex).
Short BBH
Morgan Stanley Cites Tobacco Risks
10/20/03 11:26 AM EDT
The news of rising tobacco litigation should hit the DJIA.
Short DIA
Crude Rallying
10/20/03 12:34 PM EDT
Crude has quietly rallied quite a bit from this morning's weakness.
Put/Call Leans Bearish
10/20/03 12:40 PM EDT
Merrill Lynch's internal put/call ratio dropped to 0.66.
In isolation, this is a slightly bearish indicator.
No positions in stocks mentioned
BKX Bucking Tide
10/20/03 12:48 PM EDT
The BKX is moving inversely to the broader market!
Buying SBC
10/20/03 12:54 PM EDT
Bullish SBC
I'm buying SBC here because I think the weakness in SBC is expected.
Strength in DSL, wireless will limit the damage.
I am adding to my SBC long now. The company releases earnings Tuesday and I think the EBITDA margin compression is expected, as are the poor results.
I suspect the company will not be more than a penny or two weaker than consensus, owing to strength in DSL and wireless.
The recent share price appears reminiscent of the April fall, which proved to be a trading opportunity.
Long SBC
EK Restructuring
10/20/03 02:00 PM EDT
Update EK
CNBC mentions Lampert's and Icahn's possible involvement.
CNBC is talking about Lampert or Icahn's possible involvement in an Eastman Kodak (EK:NYSE) restructuring, a subject we discussed weeks ago.
No positions in stocks mentioned
Bank Index Reaches New Daily Low
10/20/03 02:04 PM EDT
Update BKX
I am still using the financials a market tell.
I am still focused on the financials as a market tell. And what I see does not look encouraging as the BKX has met a fresh daily low.
No positions in stocks mentioned
Adding More SBC
10/20/03 03:53 PM EDT
Bullish SBC
I am adding further to my SBC position.
I think the RBOCs might have turned on the charts.
Long SBC
Another Bulls Win, but Not a Victory
10/20/03 04:05 PM EDT
Another win for the bulls as breadth and, to some degree, volume rose into the afternoon session.
That said, I remain unconvinced that this is the start of something big.
Enjoy your evening.
A Downgrade for AIG
10/20/03 04:21 PM EDT
Update AIG
Morgan Stanley downgrades AIG.
No position in stocks mentioned
Cingular Rings Up New Subscribers
10/20/03 05:20 PM EDT
Update SBC
The wireless service provider is 60%-owned by SBC.
Cingular, 60% owned by SBC Communications (SBC:NYSE), just reported 745,000 subscriber adds.
The Street was looking for only about 650,000.
As I suggested this morning, I added to SBC as I thought the wireless adds would be above expectations.
Long SBC.
Not On Target
10/20/03 05:33 PM EDT
Target under plan -- consumer spent up, not pent up.
Break in!
Short TGT.
10/20/03 08:32 AM EDT
Bullish LEA HON LYO PX KRI NYT TWX MBG HLYW PPH
Bearish PHM TOL BWA DHR APD DJ DIS BOW RTH TGT HDI AZR HET MOVI QQQ DIA SMH BBH
Update VIA CCU FOX GE CAL EK
I plan to expand my shorts in the cyclical sector.
Retail remains pregnant with short opportunities, as well.
Here are the rest of my position updates:
Cyclical: This is an area in which I plan to expand shorts, reflecting my negative view of the economy's delta for 2004. I remain short Pulte Homes (PHM:NYSE) and Toll Brothers (TOL:NYSE). Pair trades include
Lear (LES:NYSE)/Borg Warner (BWA:NYSE)
Honeywell (HON:NYSE)/Danaher (DHR:NYSE) (imbalance short)
Lyondell (LYO:NYSE) and Praxair (PX:NYSE)/Air Products (APD:NYSE)
Knight Ridder (KRI:NYSE) and The New York Times (NYT:NYSE)/Dow Jones (DJ:NYSE)
I am out of my media longs (Viacom (VIA:NYSE), Clear Channel (CCU:NYSE) and Fox Broadcasting (FOX:NYSE)). I also covered my General Electric (GE:NYSE) short, increased the size of my Disney (DIS:NYSE) and Bowater (BOW:NYSE) shorts and enlarged my Time Warner (TWX:NYSE) long. I covered my Continental Airlines (CAL:NYSE) short on Friday when the stock was down by nearly 10% that day. I have liquidated most of my integrated oil longs.
Retail: Like the cyclical arena, retail remains pregnant with short opportunities, particularly if my "consumer is spent-up, not pent-up" thesis is accurate. I remain short Retail HOLDRs (RTH:Amex), Target (TGT:NYSE) and Harley-Davidson (HDI:NYSE) (which reported its first flat year-over-year revenue comparison). Atlantic City remains a short target for me because Aztar (AZR:NYSE) (upgraded by Deutsche today) and Harrah's (HET:NYSE) are being hurt by the Borgata as well as expanding jurisdictions allowing slot machines in the Midwest. I remain long Mandalay Bay (MBG:NYSE) (numbers should be guided higher). I am paired with Hollywood (HLYW:Nasdaq)/Movie Gallery (MOVI:Nasdaq).
Miscellaneous: I liquidated my gold short and sold Eastman Kodak (EK:NYSE). I remain short the following ETFs: Nasdaq 100 Trust Series, Diamonds, Semiconductor HOLDRs, Biotechnology HOLDRs and Retail HOLDRs, as mentioned in Part I. I am long Biopharamaceutical HOLDRs.
Long LEA, HON, LYO, PX, KRI, NYT, TWX, MBG, HLYW, PPH; short PHM, TOL, BWA, DHR, APD, DJ, DIS, BOW, RTH, TGT, HDI, AZR, HET, MOVI, QQQ, DIA, SMH, BBH
Positions Update
10/20/03 08:34 AM EDT
Bullish BAC PPH MCD KFT UVN KR K SBC
Bearish IFX MU ALTR SMH QQQ LAB GS WB JPM BBH GIS TV ABS COX
Update TXN FTN NCF C BLS CMCSA
Last week was full of sound and fury, signifying nothing, as the major indices recorded little change.
Technology got schmeissed late in the week.
This week, we continue a feature started several weeks ago in which I update some of my larger holdings by broad industry categories and highlight some of the portfolio changes I made during the week. It is important to recognize that the holdings I mention are by no means recommendations, nor are they a complete list of holdings.
As I am aware that Street Insight subscribers have differing agendas -- traders, investors and observers -- I try to give the rationale of both my trading and investing ideas. With that introduction, let's review and update some of the changes I made last week in my portfolios.
Last week was full of sound and fury, signifying nothing, as the major indices recorded little change. Nevertheless, an objective observer must give the bulls the upper hand in light of the spike in share prices since the March lows.
Technology: This sector got schmeissed late in the week after performing well most of the week. I remain short Infineon Technologies (IFX:NYSE), Micron (MU:NYSE), Altera (ALTR:Nasdaq), Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH:Amex) and Nasdaq 100 Trust Series (QQQ:Amex). (Bellwether Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE) reports its third quarter today).
Financial: My favorite short remains LaBranche (LAB:NYSE) because the specialist system's death seems likely to be hastened by Grasso's departure. I was interviewed in Barron's this weekend on the same subject. Goldman Sachs (GS:NYSE), another short, seems likely to ultimately write off its $6.5 billion investment in Spear Leeds over time. Takeover seems likely in the banking sector, reflecting the steady levitation of bank stocks and the heightened acquisition currency for those deals. First Tennessee (FTN:NYSE) and National Commerce (NCF:NYSE) (earnings upgraded by the Street last week) remain my favorite acquisition targets. I am short (and added to) the likely acquirers: Wachovia (WB:NYSE) and J.P. Morgan (JPM:NYSE) (I covered my Citigroup (C:NYSE) short last week). I remain long Bank of America (BAC:NYSE) because I believe the mutual fund timing crisis has unfairly penalized its shares.
Consumer Non-Cyclical: In my favorite long/favorite short post last week, I mentioned that Biotechnology HOLDRs (BBH:Amex) are my favorite short (shares are close to breaking a neckline in a head-and-shoulders pattern and got hurt badly in Friday's correction). I own Pharmaceutical HOLDRs (PPH:Amex) against my BBH position, in a pair (there was an excellent piece in Sunday's Washington Post on the prescription-drug industry). I remain long McDonald's (MCD:NYSE) based on the positive impact a menu change has had on the turn in comps. The consumer non-cyclical sector remains rich in pair opportunities. Some of my existing pairs include:
Kraft (KFT:NYSE)/General Mills (GIS:NYSE) (imbalance long over short)
Univision (UVN:NYSE)/Grupo Televisa (TV:NYSE)
Kroger (KR:NYSE) and Kellogg (K:NYSE)/Albertson's (ABS:NYSE).
I covered my BellSouth (BLS:NYSE) short and sold my Comcast (CMCSA:Nasdaq) long, leaving a pair of SBC (SBC:NYSE)/Cox Broadcasting (COX:NYSE).
Up next: my cyclical, retail and miscellaneous updates!
Long BAC, PPH, MCD, KFT, UVN, KR, K, SBC, FTN, NCF; short IFX, MU, ALTR, SMH, QQQ, LAB, GS, WB, JPM, BBH, GIS, TV, ABS, COX
Watching Wal-Mart for Thesis Confirmation
10/20/03 09:58 AM EDT
Update WMT
Wal-Mart reports that sales are 'in line' with expectations last week.
I am watching WMT's figures closely to determine the validity of the 'spent up, not pent up' thesis.
No positions in stocks mentioned
Favorite Short: Still BBH
10/20/03 11:15 AM EDT
Bearish BBH
A technical downgrade on the biotech sector keeps this short atop my list.
Smith Barney's technical analyst is downgrading the biotech sector, solely on a technical basis. My favorite short remains the Biotech HOLDRs (BBH:Amex).
Short BBH
Morgan Stanley Cites Tobacco Risks
10/20/03 11:26 AM EDT
The news of rising tobacco litigation should hit the DJIA.
Short DIA
Crude Rallying
10/20/03 12:34 PM EDT
Crude has quietly rallied quite a bit from this morning's weakness.
Put/Call Leans Bearish
10/20/03 12:40 PM EDT
Merrill Lynch's internal put/call ratio dropped to 0.66.
In isolation, this is a slightly bearish indicator.
No positions in stocks mentioned
BKX Bucking Tide
10/20/03 12:48 PM EDT
The BKX is moving inversely to the broader market!
Buying SBC
10/20/03 12:54 PM EDT
Bullish SBC
I'm buying SBC here because I think the weakness in SBC is expected.
Strength in DSL, wireless will limit the damage.
I am adding to my SBC long now. The company releases earnings Tuesday and I think the EBITDA margin compression is expected, as are the poor results.
I suspect the company will not be more than a penny or two weaker than consensus, owing to strength in DSL and wireless.
The recent share price appears reminiscent of the April fall, which proved to be a trading opportunity.
Long SBC
EK Restructuring
10/20/03 02:00 PM EDT
Update EK
CNBC mentions Lampert's and Icahn's possible involvement.
CNBC is talking about Lampert or Icahn's possible involvement in an Eastman Kodak (EK:NYSE) restructuring, a subject we discussed weeks ago.
No positions in stocks mentioned
Bank Index Reaches New Daily Low
10/20/03 02:04 PM EDT
Update BKX
I am still using the financials a market tell.
I am still focused on the financials as a market tell. And what I see does not look encouraging as the BKX has met a fresh daily low.
No positions in stocks mentioned
Adding More SBC
10/20/03 03:53 PM EDT
Bullish SBC
I am adding further to my SBC position.
I think the RBOCs might have turned on the charts.
Long SBC
Another Bulls Win, but Not a Victory
10/20/03 04:05 PM EDT
Another win for the bulls as breadth and, to some degree, volume rose into the afternoon session.
That said, I remain unconvinced that this is the start of something big.
Enjoy your evening.
A Downgrade for AIG
10/20/03 04:21 PM EDT
Update AIG
Morgan Stanley downgrades AIG.
No position in stocks mentioned
Cingular Rings Up New Subscribers
10/20/03 05:20 PM EDT
Update SBC
The wireless service provider is 60%-owned by SBC.
Cingular, 60% owned by SBC Communications (SBC:NYSE), just reported 745,000 subscriber adds.
The Street was looking for only about 650,000.
As I suggested this morning, I added to SBC as I thought the wireless adds would be above expectations.
Long SBC.
Not On Target
10/20/03 05:33 PM EDT
Target under plan -- consumer spent up, not pent up.
Break in!
Short TGT.