Cramer- "Yes, Naysayers, There Is an Earnings Turn at I
Enviado: 15/10/2003 14:50Cramer toca aqui num ponto importante que é o facto da melhoria dos resultados, se for rápida e brutal como no caso da Intel, poder virar rapidamente alguns PER`s.
Ulisses
"Yes, Naysayers, There Is an Earnings Turn at Intel"
By James J. Cramer
10/15/2003 09:23 AM EDT
"When Intel was at $18 a share, it was darned expensive. The Street was looking for 60 cents this year and maybe 85 cents next year. If everything went right. Thirty times earnings for Intel. "Balderdash, I ain't paying that," was the collective judgment at the time. (Fortunately I didn't listen and I bought it for Action Alerts PLUS.)
Now it turns out that Intel at $18 was a huge bargain, because it is possible that Intel could do $1.30 to $1.50 in earnings per share next year. You were paying a little more than 12 times earnings for the premium semiconductor company that has an unrivaled balance sheet, a virtual monopoly on microprocessors and fantastic management.
That should not have happened. Why did it happen? I think some of it was group-think. No one, other than Tom Kurlak, thought that notebook computers could take off as they have. They are by far the hottest segment of a very hot sector worldwide. No one thought we could have this kind of economic recovery. Many people underestimated the leverage of the Intel model when it gets into the sweet spot, where the yields explode upward. Most important, though, the bears, the Fred Hickeys of the world, were adamant in their chest-beating that Intel was, well, finished.
Let Intel's rise be a lesson to all of the wiseguys out there who don't believe that earnings turns can happen. Let Intel's rise be a testimonial to the notion that all that really matters is forward earnings and trying to assess them. Let's also remember that the company itself was no help in arriving at this forecast, either on or off the record, with companies in general no longer playing that role because of legal concerns.
As we look at Intel at $32 the Street is, again, after three straight surprises, wondering if the stock is too expensive. My friend Jesse Eisinger at The Wall Street Journal reminds us that we are paying 30 times earnings for Intel!
To which I say, 30 times earnings, balderdash!
Get me some Intel. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
Ulisses
"Yes, Naysayers, There Is an Earnings Turn at Intel"
By James J. Cramer
10/15/2003 09:23 AM EDT
"When Intel was at $18 a share, it was darned expensive. The Street was looking for 60 cents this year and maybe 85 cents next year. If everything went right. Thirty times earnings for Intel. "Balderdash, I ain't paying that," was the collective judgment at the time. (Fortunately I didn't listen and I bought it for Action Alerts PLUS.)
Now it turns out that Intel at $18 was a huge bargain, because it is possible that Intel could do $1.30 to $1.50 in earnings per share next year. You were paying a little more than 12 times earnings for the premium semiconductor company that has an unrivaled balance sheet, a virtual monopoly on microprocessors and fantastic management.
That should not have happened. Why did it happen? I think some of it was group-think. No one, other than Tom Kurlak, thought that notebook computers could take off as they have. They are by far the hottest segment of a very hot sector worldwide. No one thought we could have this kind of economic recovery. Many people underestimated the leverage of the Intel model when it gets into the sweet spot, where the yields explode upward. Most important, though, the bears, the Fred Hickeys of the world, were adamant in their chest-beating that Intel was, well, finished.
Let Intel's rise be a lesson to all of the wiseguys out there who don't believe that earnings turns can happen. Let Intel's rise be a testimonial to the notion that all that really matters is forward earnings and trying to assess them. Let's also remember that the company itself was no help in arriving at this forecast, either on or off the record, with companies in general no longer playing that role because of legal concerns.
As we look at Intel at $32 the Street is, again, after three straight surprises, wondering if the stock is too expensive. My friend Jesse Eisinger at The Wall Street Journal reminds us that we are paying 30 times earnings for Intel!
To which I say, 30 times earnings, balderdash!
Get me some Intel. "
(in www.realmoney.com)