"Beware a Frenzied Run-Up"
By James J. Cramer
10/14/2003 02:42 PM EDT
"People keep asking me what would turn me bearish. In a few words: The frenzy that could be about to occur could turn me bearish. I've been taking some heat from critics for my out-of-the-closet blast of the economic "policy" of President Bush, but it is all of a piece. The plan is to juke the stock market as high as possible between now and the election. That's written. Makes so much sense.
You can do that by cutting taxes to the point where there are no revenues to take in; they are well on that path. You can also do it by making sure rates don't go higher. Greenspan's signed on for that. He doesn't want to elect Wesley Clark.
I don't know why I didn't see the frenzy coming earlier. I really thought that we could have a measured stairstep pattern as we have had since the exquisite moment.
Now, though, we are in danger of the blowoff because of how money is configured in the country, with the hedge funds trying so hard to knock it down and failing, and then facing redemptions if they don't take long-side action between now and the end of December.
So, what would make me bearish? How about 1,000 points on the upside? "
(in
www.realmoney.com)