Ao início da tarde, o Cramer escreveu um artigo sobre o Russel2000. Aqui fica o artigo:
"An Unlikely Boost From the Options Side"
By James J. Cramer
10/13/2003 01:03 PM EDT
"Trades that go awry sometimes cause some pretty wacky things to happen, especially when they're put trades.
Take last week's huge buyer of Russell 2000 index puts. Last week, a fund bought thousands of puts on the Russell 2000 index. The buyer took the October 530 puts with the index around 515-520, paying roughly 11-14 for the puts. I saw maybe 2,500 bought around that range.
That's a gigantic bet.
Today, the buyer is blowing them out around 5-6.
Ouch! That's a $2.5 million loss in just a few days!
This is the kind of trade that might be put on by a hedge fund thinking the market was going to roll over. I don't know whether it was a directional trade or a hedged trade. I do know that it is the type of trade that indirectly can boost the averages on the way out. Here's how: The buyer was big enough and loud enough that you might have seen him. You also might have gotten a call from a broker saying "I see smart buying of Russell 2000 puts."
So people might have piggy-backed.
Trying to get out of this contract with the Russell rallying is a nightmare. I can see hedge funds that did this trade doing their best to try to save some capital before they go out worthless.
On the go-out, panic spreads quickly because the sellers can't mask their sales. The trades are too visible, the pain too great.
You can get a whoosh up just from the put-selling, especially if the market makers are similarly positioned. It becomes a classic case of the options tail wagging the index dog.
That's what seems to be happening as the seller continues to unload the puts as I write."
(in
www.realmoney.com)
Enviado: 15/10/2003 0:02