Wall Street fecha semana em alta. S&P 500 e Nasdaq atingem recorde

[Dwer]

We want to stay on the sell side of the market as prices begin to reach exhaustion after one more attempted push up.
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thanks for joining with us today. Our Headline Call on Tuesday was to look to stay on the sell side of the market as we wait for a pattern to unfold that we are expecting to take prices lower. We saw the market drop about 5 handles lower on the opening, push slightly lower and then proceed to move higher all day. Prices hit the BreakOut first on the Hour One pivots which we had said would be tricky if they hit that pivot AGAIN. Because of the B/O getting hit for a nice +8 point sell off on Friday, a slight 2-3 pts. loss Monday when the B/O was hit, and then yesterday seeing the B/O get hit first again it was indeed tricky as anticipated. The market was more in a bullish "hanging up" near the highs mood and any short trades were frustrated.

After hitting the B/O first again and seeing the market go FLAT for an hour at around 10:30est to 11:30est, attempting to sell off with a very feeble 2-3 pts. profit from the B/O and then returning back to the 1030 B/O area the trade should have been cut with as small a loss as possible. Anywhere from 2-4 points.

Usually our TCF Trade setups will work out within a few hours and when you are sitting with a position all day and seeing absolutely little or no profit on the trade you have to CUT THEM IN THE LAST HOUR. We have our patience rules and things but simple trading logic tells you that if the trade does not show a decent profit of some sort after sitting all day then it's time to just forget it and prepare for the next TCF setup.

Today's Call & Briefing:
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We are in a current pattern according to our 18 Proprietary indicators that is in a Buy Mode which began below the 1000 handle. Over the last 2 days the indicators are giving me signals of exhaustion as a final Buy aberration on the LSS pattern is unfolding. According to this pattern it will usually run 3 days but in some extreme cases like now will run 5 days. Tuesday finished off the 5th day up and so for today we should be on our way down in a more decisive fashion after one more attempt to push higher early today

We need to keep hitting the sell side and although it requires some patience our job is not to get frustrated but merely function as system operators without amateur emotions. Once the pattern unfolds the trade will move in the suggested direction and the ranges will open up some.

The ranges are particularly contracted this month and last month unlike May, June or July where the average ranges were running around 15 handles or more even with the S&P500 substantially lower in price. It's just a phenomena that is occuring the last 6 weeks that we have to face and just keep moving on following our methods.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: Let's be on the lookout once again for lower prices and some surprise news. The news seems to be rather tame right now with lots of attention on the California Recall. California's financial problems along with Arnold Schwartzenegers Nazi family past (his father was an officer in the Nazi party and Arnold was raised in that environment with deep respect for Hitler) and indiscretions with females seems to be a good distracting factor from the market news for now. So we may get another quiet day on Wednesday although with the above LSS pattern coming to fruition the downside is right around the corner. Because of this we need to be on the lookout for a surprise Bear Ugly day to unfold soon.

Shall we buy the BreakDown? Sure, if we see that the High Five are not Bear Ugly and there are no strong negative news stories spooking the market. However, as mentioned yesterday we need to be on the lookout for a "Sneak Down" Bear Ugly day. This is a relatively new phenomena that we had identified in these briefings and named "Sneak Down" several months ago. Although they are hard to gauage that is how the day unfolds. If this pattern is confusing to you then just stand aside. We don't have to trade each day but I do feel compelled to identify any new patterns I see and talk about them here.

Our TCF Briefings are for experienced traders who want to do their own research in the markets and find our work enlightening. Although we are a stand alone system we also see ourselves here at TCF as "Door Openers" to astute researchers and traders who want to explore the patterns we talk about and discover even more clarity in approaching the markets.

Value Area: 1,024.70 - 1,033.10
As you can see from the Value Area a lot of the trade volume was facilitated at the lower part of the range. We need to watch this 1024.00 area now for support. If this does not hold it could be a quick move to the 1016.00 area. Trade holding above 1033.00 will continue to be bullish but will be part of the exhaustion move that we are expecting today. Trade into the VA should move down to cover at least 75% of the VA or the 1027.00 area.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,028.25 - 1,029.25
No trade at this target today as we are in an unfolding exhaustion move. Lets see how prices react to the 1024.00 area and then we can maybe make a play at this pivot. Better to watch and wait while comparing to the B/D action rather than be involved in a trade that loses money when the identifiable pattern can be seen simply by waiting and observing price reaction to the area.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,042.50 - 1,041.50
We can go ahead and sell this sell pivot target today and use a 5 point stop on the trade. Ideally it will hit earlier unlike yesterdays Sell Pivot target at the 1036.00 area which occured later in the day. If we see this area hit early then go ahead and short em. Good luck.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,013.30
Still in a "Buy Drops" mode as we are looking for a short term aberration on the Buy Mode to move us lower in prices. However, we need to keep buying drops at the B/D if we are not in a Bear Ugly day.

Pro Trader's Action
During a pattern like the one we are currently in the market is not resolutely dropping to the downside as we are calling for but also not breaking out into a full on rally. At this point we are merely finding resistance at the previously identified 1037-38 area. Patience is the key in watching the pattern unfold which we will be expecting once again today to see.

Let's continue to hit the sell side and see if we can get some lower action going today and find a TCF Setup to get us in on a trade on that side.

Good luck and all the best of success in your trading. Mohan