Mohan 03/10/03
Enviado: 3/10/2003 10:56Market to push a bit higher today but look for selling to come in on the early moves up.
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.
On our Headline Call for Thursday we were looking for continued higher prices IF we did not get a super charged, "Too Much Too Soon" type rally off the open which did not occur. The relatively flat opening (down 1.5 handles) told us to expect overall higher prices for Thursday which we got but the path upwards was very herky jerky and no TCF Trade Setups were hit along the way.
We had expressed in the briefing that there was a good reason to be a little more patient or even cautious on Thursday and we can see that as a result no trading action setup for the day. Still our Headline Call panned out nicely for the day.
We see that Friday may have a problem moving much higher although we are expecting some initial pop up early in the session. Below I will describe how I think we can best trade the action for Friday.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We are going to be looking for an early move up in prices that we are expecting to get hit with selling later in the session. I am not expecting a selloff but just sort of the type of day where the bulls get excited in the morning only to see a "wrench thrown in the machine" later as prices start to fall off.
Overall we are in a new Buy Mode and are now watching carefully to see if we will get an aberration on that buy mode and see prices start to sink again. I am rather expecting that this may occur. The best way for us to view this is to keep a watchful eye on the OPENING PRICE and see that prices hold above that. Our expectation is that any rally off the opening will have a decent looking High Five backing it up but don't be fooled as we are expecting one of the notorious "fake outs" that you hear about.
Again, we are in the Buy Mode, the new Buy Mode direction has been "opened up" with strong up TICKs and a really good rally on Wednesday but we now have the market on our Radar screens to see if we are going to continue the climb towards our first goal up mentioned yesterday of 1037.00 area or if we are going to fall back after tapping that Sell Pivot target area of 1022-25.00 zone.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Let's look for short the BreakOut if that is the first Hour One pivot hit today. Be sure it is not setting up for a BreakOut Buy with the Dow under +50 and NAZ strong up +12-15 or higher. If weak NAZ and higher TRIN are visible then get ready to short the BreakOut. Watch the 1022-25 area of the Sell Pivot Target and see how that coordinates wih the B/O.
Be careful on the buy side today as we are favoring the selling of rallies. If we do get the BreakDown as the first Hour One pivot then it is OK to buy IF we are not too far below the opening price and above the Buy Pivot target at 1014.75. If not and the market is not getting hit with a Bear Ugly day then we will most likely see prices not bounce much or even slowly erode.
Value Area: 1,015.00 - 1,019.80
This Value Area zone is a good key to our understanding to see if we are going to find prices faltering after this recent rally and we enter an aberration on the new Buy Mode. Watch particularly the bottom of the Value Area, the Pit Bull and the Buy Pivot target to see how support functions there
Buy Pivot Target: 1,013.75 - 1,014.75
No trade at this target today but as mentioned in the "TCF Setups to watch for today" watch for a correlation between this number and an early B/D if that is the first Hour One pivot hit.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,023.25 - 1,022.25
No specific trade at this Sell Pivot Target today but watch the B/O and see if it correlates with this same 1022-25.00 resistance area to sell into Watch the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1027.50 as resistance above this area.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,011.40
Although we have rallied above the Pit Bull and are in a Buy Mode on the Market Force short term indicators what we need to do now is monitor the opening price today and the Pit Bull to see that prices hold up above this area along with the Buy Pivot Target area. IF NOT we may be heading into a short term aberration on the Buy Mode which would send prices back lower to test that 990.00 area again which we had suggested the other day.
THIS IS NOT CONFIRMED YET OR A CALL ON THE MARKETS but an opportunity for all of us reading the Morning Call to monitor the situation for this aberration. If an aberration on the Buy Mode occurs it could last a week or so and then we would see prices resume their upward movement.
Pro Trader's Action
Well, its Friday, I am heading over to the Catamaran Hotel to greet our almost 250 trading friends from around the globe who are coming to our21st Century Futures seminar for the weekend. Let me say that I am honored and thrilled to be in such unique company with the many astute traders, researchers and subscribers who are coming.
We've got lots of work to do this weekend but it's also going to be a lot of fun.
Let's see if we can get a short trade off today on a higher opening and early push up to resistance. Remember, it's Friday which can often be a position squarring for the weekend, go nowhere type day so if you don't get a clear setup just let it go. That's entirely part of our system and we have to be willing to do that when there is no appropriate action such as we saw on Thursday.
Good Luck today and all the best of success. Mohan
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.
On our Headline Call for Thursday we were looking for continued higher prices IF we did not get a super charged, "Too Much Too Soon" type rally off the open which did not occur. The relatively flat opening (down 1.5 handles) told us to expect overall higher prices for Thursday which we got but the path upwards was very herky jerky and no TCF Trade Setups were hit along the way.
We had expressed in the briefing that there was a good reason to be a little more patient or even cautious on Thursday and we can see that as a result no trading action setup for the day. Still our Headline Call panned out nicely for the day.
We see that Friday may have a problem moving much higher although we are expecting some initial pop up early in the session. Below I will describe how I think we can best trade the action for Friday.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We are going to be looking for an early move up in prices that we are expecting to get hit with selling later in the session. I am not expecting a selloff but just sort of the type of day where the bulls get excited in the morning only to see a "wrench thrown in the machine" later as prices start to fall off.
Overall we are in a new Buy Mode and are now watching carefully to see if we will get an aberration on that buy mode and see prices start to sink again. I am rather expecting that this may occur. The best way for us to view this is to keep a watchful eye on the OPENING PRICE and see that prices hold above that. Our expectation is that any rally off the opening will have a decent looking High Five backing it up but don't be fooled as we are expecting one of the notorious "fake outs" that you hear about.
Again, we are in the Buy Mode, the new Buy Mode direction has been "opened up" with strong up TICKs and a really good rally on Wednesday but we now have the market on our Radar screens to see if we are going to continue the climb towards our first goal up mentioned yesterday of 1037.00 area or if we are going to fall back after tapping that Sell Pivot target area of 1022-25.00 zone.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Let's look for short the BreakOut if that is the first Hour One pivot hit today. Be sure it is not setting up for a BreakOut Buy with the Dow under +50 and NAZ strong up +12-15 or higher. If weak NAZ and higher TRIN are visible then get ready to short the BreakOut. Watch the 1022-25 area of the Sell Pivot Target and see how that coordinates wih the B/O.
Be careful on the buy side today as we are favoring the selling of rallies. If we do get the BreakDown as the first Hour One pivot then it is OK to buy IF we are not too far below the opening price and above the Buy Pivot target at 1014.75. If not and the market is not getting hit with a Bear Ugly day then we will most likely see prices not bounce much or even slowly erode.
Value Area: 1,015.00 - 1,019.80
This Value Area zone is a good key to our understanding to see if we are going to find prices faltering after this recent rally and we enter an aberration on the new Buy Mode. Watch particularly the bottom of the Value Area, the Pit Bull and the Buy Pivot target to see how support functions there
Buy Pivot Target: 1,013.75 - 1,014.75
No trade at this target today but as mentioned in the "TCF Setups to watch for today" watch for a correlation between this number and an early B/D if that is the first Hour One pivot hit.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,023.25 - 1,022.25
No specific trade at this Sell Pivot Target today but watch the B/O and see if it correlates with this same 1022-25.00 resistance area to sell into Watch the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1027.50 as resistance above this area.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,011.40
Although we have rallied above the Pit Bull and are in a Buy Mode on the Market Force short term indicators what we need to do now is monitor the opening price today and the Pit Bull to see that prices hold up above this area along with the Buy Pivot Target area. IF NOT we may be heading into a short term aberration on the Buy Mode which would send prices back lower to test that 990.00 area again which we had suggested the other day.
THIS IS NOT CONFIRMED YET OR A CALL ON THE MARKETS but an opportunity for all of us reading the Morning Call to monitor the situation for this aberration. If an aberration on the Buy Mode occurs it could last a week or so and then we would see prices resume their upward movement.
Pro Trader's Action
Well, its Friday, I am heading over to the Catamaran Hotel to greet our almost 250 trading friends from around the globe who are coming to our21st Century Futures seminar for the weekend. Let me say that I am honored and thrilled to be in such unique company with the many astute traders, researchers and subscribers who are coming.
We've got lots of work to do this weekend but it's also going to be a lot of fun.
Let's see if we can get a short trade off today on a higher opening and early push up to resistance. Remember, it's Friday which can often be a position squarring for the weekend, go nowhere type day so if you don't get a clear setup just let it go. That's entirely part of our system and we have to be willing to do that when there is no appropriate action such as we saw on Thursday.
Good Luck today and all the best of success. Mohan