Enviado: 29/9/2003 18:17Bem... o Cramer continua com a mão muito quente. Depois de andar "Bullish" nos últimos meses, há cerca de uma semana que anda "bearish" para as próximas semanas e hoje veio dizer que acreditava num bom dia hoje para maquilhar resultados (ler o post que está em cima deste...).
Agora, neste artigo que vou transcrever, ele volta a frisar que depois do dia de hoje (e talvez de amanhã) de boas subidas, acredita que as quedas regressarão em queda para as próximas semanas, afugentando alguns touros, fazendo os ursos explodir de contente, para depois o mercado voltar a subir até ao final do ano. Veremos...
"Use This Bounce to Reposition"
By James J. Cramer
09/29/2003 12:49 PM EDT
"Seems like we fended off the sellers for the moment and the mutual fund "proper-uppers" are back in action. They might be able to keep this act up until the bell. Still, it is tough to get traction here.
Even with some of the mutual funds supporting stocks or walking away from selling, we are getting more "ring the register" trades from the large fund families. That's the reason this bounce, while refreshing given the patter of intraday failure, should not lead to complacency and thinking that the selloff is finished. Instead, you should use it to reposition out of the stocks that have held up to date into the ones that have fallen hard and fast and could come back the hardest after mutual fund selling is over.
How does it all end so we know that we can buy and not sell? Let's refresh what happens.
First, after a day or two break, the losses should return. At this point, they will begin to be self-fulfilling. You will begin to hear that the market is going down, not because of the fact that we are in mutual fund sell season, but because the economy is weaker than expected.
Then you will start hearing new polls that show Bush losing to just about anybody. Given that the bonds have been strong, the former will have its adherents, notably Steve Roach and Richard Bernstein. (Who knows if they would be quoted still if they weren't such darned nice guys!) The latter is what it is; you don't see Tony Snow and Brit Hume asking tough questions about Iraq to Condi Rice unless the American people are beginning not to believe the "it's better than expected" scenario. (For what it's worth, I don't think Iraq is going better or worse than expected. It is going as expected, with a crowd of people in the Sunni Triangle that makes it feel like Israel for U.S. soldiers. Now maybe the U.S. government will understand what that country has to put up with and will stop with the even-handed blather when it comes to terrorists vs. democracy.)
By that point, with the economy's worrywarts in charge and the president faltering, the oscillator that I follow -- currently at minus 1 -- will have gotten to minus 5, where it has bottomed deliciously in the past. We will begin to lose bulls in the Investors Intelligence bull-bear poll that comes out Wednesdays, preferably down to the sub-50 level. And we will lose a couple of analysts/strategists who can't take the pain.
All of this should happen by the second or third week of October (I'm partial to thinking it will be the second week) and we will advance again once the negativists hold sway. We will advance again because then we will be in earnings season and we will learn that Viacom (VIA.B:NYSE - commentary - research) and Verizon (VZ:NYSE - commentary - research) aren't the norm. We will learn that business is good pretty much across the board. Not great, but good, and given where we will have come down to, that will be an acceptable reason to rally.
No doubt, this has been a painful selloff. As the Investor's Business Daily says, "Techs mark worst week of year." Those who didn't raise cash still can raise cash on openings like the one we had today when the market was actually bullish.
But at these prices, it might just pay to wait it out. Help is on the way, from the calendar. If you haven't sold tech, for example, by now, I just don't think it is worth it. Same with defense, which the Washington Post pronounced dead today, I think prematurely. Financials? Still some weakness ahead. Same with drugs.
Many stocks, though, as many as a third, may have bottomed already. You sell those, you won't be able to get back in.
That's costly. Don't let it happen to you. "
(in www.realmoney.co,)
Agora, neste artigo que vou transcrever, ele volta a frisar que depois do dia de hoje (e talvez de amanhã) de boas subidas, acredita que as quedas regressarão em queda para as próximas semanas, afugentando alguns touros, fazendo os ursos explodir de contente, para depois o mercado voltar a subir até ao final do ano. Veremos...
"Use This Bounce to Reposition"
By James J. Cramer
09/29/2003 12:49 PM EDT
"Seems like we fended off the sellers for the moment and the mutual fund "proper-uppers" are back in action. They might be able to keep this act up until the bell. Still, it is tough to get traction here.
Even with some of the mutual funds supporting stocks or walking away from selling, we are getting more "ring the register" trades from the large fund families. That's the reason this bounce, while refreshing given the patter of intraday failure, should not lead to complacency and thinking that the selloff is finished. Instead, you should use it to reposition out of the stocks that have held up to date into the ones that have fallen hard and fast and could come back the hardest after mutual fund selling is over.
How does it all end so we know that we can buy and not sell? Let's refresh what happens.
First, after a day or two break, the losses should return. At this point, they will begin to be self-fulfilling. You will begin to hear that the market is going down, not because of the fact that we are in mutual fund sell season, but because the economy is weaker than expected.
Then you will start hearing new polls that show Bush losing to just about anybody. Given that the bonds have been strong, the former will have its adherents, notably Steve Roach and Richard Bernstein. (Who knows if they would be quoted still if they weren't such darned nice guys!) The latter is what it is; you don't see Tony Snow and Brit Hume asking tough questions about Iraq to Condi Rice unless the American people are beginning not to believe the "it's better than expected" scenario. (For what it's worth, I don't think Iraq is going better or worse than expected. It is going as expected, with a crowd of people in the Sunni Triangle that makes it feel like Israel for U.S. soldiers. Now maybe the U.S. government will understand what that country has to put up with and will stop with the even-handed blather when it comes to terrorists vs. democracy.)
By that point, with the economy's worrywarts in charge and the president faltering, the oscillator that I follow -- currently at minus 1 -- will have gotten to minus 5, where it has bottomed deliciously in the past. We will begin to lose bulls in the Investors Intelligence bull-bear poll that comes out Wednesdays, preferably down to the sub-50 level. And we will lose a couple of analysts/strategists who can't take the pain.
All of this should happen by the second or third week of October (I'm partial to thinking it will be the second week) and we will advance again once the negativists hold sway. We will advance again because then we will be in earnings season and we will learn that Viacom (VIA.B:NYSE - commentary - research) and Verizon (VZ:NYSE - commentary - research) aren't the norm. We will learn that business is good pretty much across the board. Not great, but good, and given where we will have come down to, that will be an acceptable reason to rally.
No doubt, this has been a painful selloff. As the Investor's Business Daily says, "Techs mark worst week of year." Those who didn't raise cash still can raise cash on openings like the one we had today when the market was actually bullish.
But at these prices, it might just pay to wait it out. Help is on the way, from the calendar. If you haven't sold tech, for example, by now, I just don't think it is worth it. Same with defense, which the Washington Post pronounced dead today, I think prematurely. Financials? Still some weakness ahead. Same with drugs.
Many stocks, though, as many as a third, may have bottomed already. You sell those, you won't be able to get back in.
That's costly. Don't let it happen to you. "
(in www.realmoney.co,)