CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Aqui fica outro artigo com o mesmo sentido...

"Wait Until We're Oversold"

By James J. Cramer
09/24/2003 03:45 PM EDT


"How does the selloff end? I think this one can't end until we get really oversold. While I have not relied on sentiment, the VIX, the Investors Intelligence bull-bear number or any technical indicators since my call of the exquisite moment, I can tell you that this selloff will required close attention to the oscillator.

As someone who stuck his neck out last week and said you should do some selling, I can tell you that you won't be able to buy with confidence, buy "the market" with confidence, until we get well into oversold territory. We won't get new buyers until then.


We won't get them because of the time of year that we are in and we won't get them until portfolio managers say "it is too late to sell," which is what the oscillator measures to begin with.

I think you can pick spots when you want to because some stocks will bottom ahead of others. But the all-clear sign? It won't come until minus four or five on the oscillator I follow, S&P's proprietary oscillator.

There are no certainties to the end of tough selloff like this one. Some end with crescendos. Some end with capitulation. This one will end when the calendar points to a better date -- mid-October -- and the oscillator points to a better time to sell.

I have been adamant that this part of the year is the most dangerous because I have lost a lot of money during this period before. I don't want to do it again, but I can't trade like any of you can.

Please be careful out there. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

Deixo aqui mais um artigo do Cramer a esse repeito. Recordo que, desde a passada Sexta-feira, ele tem defendido que as próximas semanas vão ser de correcção, apesar de acreditar que depois o caminho é bem, para cima.

Um abraço,
Ulisses


"Season for Selling Grips Market"

By James J. Cramer
09/24/2003 03:24 PM EDT

"It's the season for selling. I can say this over and over again, but it won't hit home until news develops that, each time, will weigh on the markets more than it should.

Local ad revenues? An emergency OPEC meeting? These aren't the stuff of 2% declines. They are the stuff that is tinder; they get things going. But the conflagration comes strictly from the dynamic that rules the end of September and the beginning of October.


What exactly is the combustion? Let me put it as simply as possible: The hedge funds need this market lower because they have underperformed dramatically. The mutual funds don't want to see their fantastic plus-25% years go away so they will pile on at the sign of any weakness. That's what causes this moment to be so dangerous.

Six weeks from now and you can already bet that the mutual funds will begin to preserve and protect their leads. Their fiscal years are over; they have locked in their gains and losses. A month from now, if a hedge fund is still underperforming, it's going to have to pile on the long side to make things happen, a la the end of 1999. Go back and take a look; a bunch did that.

Right now, though, it is lock and unload. Dangerous time. On any bad news. And so far, fortunately, the bad news has been limited.

Obey the seasonality. It makes too much sense. I have too many scars from this period for you not to learn from them! "

(in www.realmoney.com)

Já não sei q comentador dizia q o começo da correção nos USA era no fim do mês de Setembro, fecho de fundos. E no Nasdaq já lá vão 30-40% desde início do ano