Alívio do IRS é maior para 17% das famílias

[Fernando dos Aidos]

Caro Dwer,

De facto, ninguém te responde aos posts do Mohan, mas muitos de nós apreciam. Aqui fica expresso o meu agradecimento.

Um abraço

Fernando dos Aidos

[alex01]

Dwer,

Obrigado por postares o Mohan diariamente. Tenho seguido os setup's, porém não tenho aberto posições devido à falta de tempo.

Estes últimos dias os setup's não tem corrido muito bem, ou não há trades ou terminam em stop-losses. Vamos lá ver se a situação melhora porque quero voltar a negociar.


Cumprimentos,

[Dwer]

On a higher opening look for lower prices to go today BUT if they open lower and run lower first then we expect support to come in and a reflex move up.

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to the Morning Call for Thursday.

On our Headline Call for Wednesday we were looking for slightly higher prices in the early session and a pullback off those prices later in the day.

Well, the big news today was the OPEC agreement to cut back production sending oil prices soaring and that just did in the stock market.

We did get a slightly higher opening by about 2 handles, a slight tap to the upside, and then slow erosion all day long right into the close. Today resembled what we call a "Sneak Down Bear Ugly day" or an actual Bear Ugly day if you had considered the OPEC news dramatic enough.

Our Headline Call did not peg this sell off as it occurred although we were looking for a pullback in prices. We even said in the "TCF Trade setups to watch for" section that we "were not expecting a Bear Ugly day and were willing to buy the B/D if the day has not set up too mega bearish looking". So there was some inkling in our indicators that we needed to be cautious if there was something creating a mega bearish day.

Still, we took a stab at the B/D subtracting 2-4 points from the BreakDown price of 1021.75 which is part of our system. When the market is showing a bearish High Five very often with a little patience you can get a better price below the B/D if you wait for a bit. This was the case on Wednesday but they just kept pushing lower and we got stopped out.

Now if you read the TCF Trading Handbook carefully you would know that we use a 6 point stop OFF THE ORIGINAL HOUR ONE PIVOT which in Wednesday's case was 1021.75 making the stop 1015.75. If you get the lower minus 2-4 zone to buy in then we like to give it an extra point below the minus 6 point stop and so based on this plus depending on where you got long your loss would have been about 2-5 points.

So the setup got stopped out for a small nick on this but of course the hardest part is always looking back and thinking, "why couldn't I see how Bear Ugly this was". That is just part of trading. In fact, I know some of you did preceive this and got short near the B/D which is super cool. The tricky part is how to trade the day after a blow off like this and we have the formula for that which I will describe below.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today we are going to be looking for the market to open and move directionally in the first 20 minutes or so in a specific way to set up the trade for the day.

On a Higher opening and an early push up in prices we will expect the selling to continue lower and most likely take out Wednesday's lows.

If we get the lower opening and push down early first then consolidation is expected with rising prices for the day.

This is the key to watch for today and the markets reaction to the opening price range after they get trading after the first hour. The hard hitting move on Wednesday definitely was a bit of a shock to lot of the bulls and it gave you a chance to see how these Bear Ugly days sneak up usually out of nowhere.

Our initial goal lower on this move would be the 997-998 area and then if they can't bounce back up above the 1000 handle down to visit 977. Yikes!

We are still expecting some firming into the end of the year but not quite sure what that will look like just yet. The market does appear, according to our TCF Market Force indicators, to be resolving itself to the bullish side a little quicker right now than to the bearish side. This means we should see the Market Force indicators turn from the Sell Mode they are in to roll over to the Buy Mode relatively soon. It will take a little more erosion to create this roll over though and we will notify you when that occurs.

Our Market Force indicators moved to a Sell Mode on September 4th this month and we have seen the "Sell Rallies" setups work out well inspite of the terrible low ranges we have been having.

ITCF Trade Setups to watch for today: The key today on a lower opening and an early lower move will be to see the BreakDown get hit again which should give us a successful BreakDown buy if that occurs first.

If we get a higher opening and the BreakOut is the first pivot hit then we should get a nice pullback off of that to lower levels.

Let's not trade the Buy/Sell pivots today but let the first hour play out and give us more clues as to where the prices are going to go. Watch for the 1011.00-1012.00 to be a pivotal point in addition to our other pivots It is a crucial number zone and it just happens to be in between the Buy and Sell Pivot targets today.

Value Area: 1,006.30 - 1,020.10
The wide Value Area for today shows how the larger volume in this range was facilitating the prices and this range will give us good information today on support or resistance. The lower area around 1006.30 is going to be especially important to see if the prices can above there. Because we are looking for lower prices ultimately if we find the prices holding below 100600 then we should see the lower move to fufill the 998-997 area.

Buy Pivot Target: 999.75 - 1,000.75
Although it is tempting to want to buy this Pivot Target today if we get down here let's wait and see how things go after the first hour. If the pressure continues to the downside we should have a good opportunity to see how this price area is holding up in relation to the stop/pivot at 995.50 (-4.25) also.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,021.25 - 1,020.25
No trade at this pivot. It is not expected prices will stretch back up here today. If they do this should be a sell point for strong resistance.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,022.20
When we visited the Pit Bull for the 2nd time after prices tried to stabalize above it they really ran em through to the downside. This is why we put out the Crossover Alerts. Basically the purpose is to alert you to the strong possibility of the Crossover moving rapidly to the new side prices are crossing over to. Usually it is most favorable if we are in a TCF trade setup that matches the Crossover direction and then we view it as a monitor to back up staying on that side of the market. This would have been the case on Wednesday. The TCF setup was attempting to buy right under this Pit Bull on Wednesday at the 1017-1021.00 area but as they held lower with the Bear Ugly High Five and especially the really sour NAZ it was time for much lower prices.

Pro Trader's Action
We have a Headline Call today that is suggesting to watch the opening for clues as to market direction today. Let's plan to wait for the first hour to play out first and then take a look at how the trade is setting up. Either side would be ideal but most likely we will get the lower early move first which will set up a slow consolidation type grind higher today.

Good luck in your trading today and all the best of success. Mohan