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[Ulisses Pereira]

"No Headline Call today due to Options Expiration.

ESZ03 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Friday, September 19, 2003
Prev Day - SP
Range: 14.80 Value Area
Range: 7.20 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,042.75-1,041.75 Sell Pivot
High 1,038.50
1,038.40
Close 1,037.30
1,031.20
1,027.75-1,028.75 Buy Pivot
Open 1,025.70
Low 1,023.70
1,022.50 Pit Bull MA



Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good morning and welcome to Options expiration Friday.

We do not make Headline Calls on Option expiration days due to the many different option strategies being unwound and reconstructed for the next month. As such we do not make any TCF Trade recommendations for these days either.

Just as a reminder for those of our readers who are new to 21st Century Futures. We do not make Headline Calls on FOMC meeting days when they announce interest rate adjustments, Option expiration Friday's or selected pre-holiday short session days. We find that these trading days are often better left standing aside in "position neutral". Of course trading opportunities still occur on these days sometimes but we just don't participate as a policy.

On Thursday our Headline Call was looking for higher prices based on a lower early drop in prices. We got a flat opening and then a quick pullback which gradually rose and formed the Hour One BreakOut. After some time prices hung up near the highs as a bullish High Five started to form. We saw the BreakOut get hit first but with the Naz (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) holding back being up around +8 points. The other High Five were bullish but in following our TCF Trading Handbook idea we wanted to Sell the B/O and add 2-4 points to that high as shown on the chart above.

The Green line is the B/O line and the Red is the BreakDown line based on the Hour One high and low. So our sell price was the B/O (1031.50) +2-4 points to go short.

The S&P500 essentially hung up near those highs the rest of the day until finally stopping out the trade at our recommended B/O +6 pts or 103750 stop for a small loss.

There was not a lot more you could have done today. You could have bought the B/O but with the Naz lower it was not an official B/O setup. So on balance our Headline Call worked out really well but we went short near the highs and got stopped out for a few points.

Today's Call & Briefing:
No Headline Call today and therefore no TCF Trade setups are recommended Our bias is still for another attempt by the market to push prices a bit higher but without much further upside.

Join us Monday morning for some more trade action.

Value Area: 1,031.20 - 1,038.40
You can watch the Value Area today for support and resistance giving us some hints of market bias. Also watch the OPENING PRICE today as the opening will play a key part in the bias today. Prices holding above the opening will give us some more strength on early Monday but most likely to sell into later in the session.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,027.75 - 1,028.75
No trade at this pivot today.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,042.75 - 1,041.75
No trade at this pivot today. This is a strong resistance area however.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,022.50
When we are above the Pit Bull (this 10 Day Moving Average pivot is named after Marty Schwartz and his book "The Pit Bull" which is highly recommended reading) we are looking to Buy drops. As prices drop below this price pivot we look to maintain a Sell Rallies mentality. When the closing price approaches the Pit Bull within 10 handles (S&P500 points) we issue a "Crossover Alert" which tells us to be on alert for a possible pending change to the bias.

Pro Trader's Action
Today being options expiration day is often a good day to do extra research on the markets or get some extra time away from the daily excitement and neurological stimulation of trading the S&P500.

It's been a light week with extremely low ranges and some go nowhere fast markets. So we just need to be patient and things will pick up soon. Have a good weekend and I will look forward to updating you on Monday.

All the best to you and your family who supports you in this great business of S&P500 trading. Mohan"