Enviado: 18/9/2003 16:23"Look for a lower opening and an early drop to be bullish for today.
ESZ03 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Thursday, September 18, 2003
Prev Day - SP
Range: 7.40 Value Area
Range: 3.80 TCF Key Numbers for ES
High 1,029.80
1,029.50-1,028.50 Sell Pivot
1,027.60
Open 1,027.00
Close 1,025.50
1,023.80
Low 1,022.40
1,022.00-1,023.00 Buy Pivot
1,021.60 Pit Bull MA
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and we appreciate you joining with us today.
On our Headline Call for Wednesday we were very specific in suggesting that the market would attempt to make a further rally but would falter (stall) and pullback off those attempted highs.
This is exactly what we got today as the market hit the BreakOut (1029.75) as the first Hour One pivot and then pulled back slowly all day from that price. There was very little volume again on Wednesday and the B/O was hit on a print basis on two occasions after the first hour was complete but with a small amount of contracts trading on that B/O price.
When this occurs you need to make a split second decision and in some cases chase the market a bit to get in. When you become a Professional S&P500 trader you are always confronted with many different situations in the market. Our Morning Call briefings are designed to show you how to navigate these rough S&P500 waters using our proven methods. However, the most important factor is YOU and your skill development along the way as you grow your business and talent.
So as the market hit the B/O and basically pulled back all day. As you can see from the chart there was a reversal mid session that took prices back up to near the entry area. On days like these that are incredibly slow and with tight ranges it is tempting to just get out of the trade. The High Five were giving mixed to bearish readings and if you did decide to hang tough with the market all day you were eventually rewarded with up to 6-7 points.
Some of you may have gotten out sooner just due to the quiet nature of the markets and these crummy ranges. That is your discretion but you can see by holding out the TCF Trade setup did pan out for a decent profit considering the range.
You also should remember our recent discussions about scalping for 5-6 points when the ranges get shrunk down like this. We always want to attempt to hold out for the 8-10 point moves but simple logic and human intelligence tells us that you can't get 8 points very easily out of a 7 point range. So we do need to adjust to the current situation knowing that things will be getting more volatile soon.
Hey, it could be today....so don't fall asleep at the wheel. In fact, we are looking for some more eratic movements off the opening today which we hope will set up a bullish day.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Ideally today we want to see the prices open BELOW 1025.50 and run down lower early. This would set up what we feel would be a bullish type day as prices grind higher and stretch up to make new monthly highs.
Right now our Market Force indicators are in an aberration on the Sell Mode. We fully expect this sell mode to resume soon but for now it appears that they will push against it for a few days possibly.
Is the resignation of the overpayed Grasso character a bullish factor? Perhaps so as the public may interpret this as a good sign of some more cleanup going on in the corporate and Wall Street worlds. This is why we are expecting any early shock drop to set up what could later in the session be a bullish tone.
As I always like to give you clear strategies for the opposite side of the call we make we would look for a slow consolidation lower IF they open higher and run up FIRST off the opening. We are rather expecting the first scenario to occur but keep in mind that a higher opening, early run up and consolidation should end lower for the day similar to what occurred on Wednesday.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Our expectation is that the first Hour One pivot to get hit today will be the BreakDown. If we get the lower opening and early run lower then let's look to Buy the BreakDown to get long for a slow climb higher.
If the market opens Bear Ugly and some strong, market shaking news hits the press then we would look for a Gap lower opening and a lower early run which we would look to short after the first hour. This is not expected today however.
Now the best thing that we feel could happen today for a slow move higher throughout the day would be a fast, lower early move which would reverse. We would look for that point of reversal either at the 1018.00 area just above the Buy Pivot minus the 4.25 stop/pivot or just under the Pit Bull at 1021.60. So to determine what to do with this watch for the SPEED OF THE EARLY MOVE LOWER (if indeed that is what occurs) and the reversal at one of these key areas. Otherwise WAIT for the first hour to complete and Buy the B/D.
Value Area: 1,023.80 - 1,027.60
Due to the tight range of yesterday's action ( or should I say Non Action) we have Value Area and Buy/Sell Pivot targets that are very tight. All we can do is use them as a guideline today and watch the 4.25 stop/pivots around the Buy/Sell Pivots. We won't trade directly off of any of these pivots today.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,022.00 - 1,023.00
No trade at this pivot today but as mentioned above let's watch for the reaction to the --4.25 stop/pivot at 1017.75 for support in conjunction with the BreakDown.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,029.50 - 1,028.50
No Trade at this pivot today and same instructions as above for the Buy Pivot target.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,021.60
We are trading above the Pit Bull and we are going to look for initial support there at this 1021.50 area. If they pop slightly through this to the downside then watch the 1018.00 area for support and let's see if they can rise up and give us a new month high above 1033.00.
On the lower opening and early run lower type opening we would want to see prices rise above the opening price and hold up above that.
Pro Trader's Action
It is very important to remember that our Morning Call briefings are based on the action in the market each day.
This is literally A MARKET PLACE where buyers and sellers come together and "trade goods" at various prices. If the shoppers, the buyers and the sellers don't come to the market place there is not a damn thing Mohan or any other financial advisor can do to create that. If the ranges shrink and the action gets very slow then this will affect the overall markets and hence the TCF Trade setups.
Getting a subscription to our professional briefings means you are committing to learning to be a Pro S&P500 trader. Once in a while this is going to happen where the circumstances dictate extreme patience and relaxation in regards to the action. I have traded these setups for many years and have seen trading days when we have 30 point regular ranges where the B/O and B/D Hour One pivots are getting hit on both sides in one day. Often on these type of days the action is giving us up to +20 point days and I have also seen (and am seeing again now) ridiculously slow action and shrunk ranges which are necessary to scalp whatever bread crumbs you can get out of em
The key though is to NOT GRIPE or become frustrated when it gets a little slow and to NOT CHEER when the ranges go wild. An amateur ALWAYS wants action and gets disgruntled when it is not there whereas a Pro only wants to act in a professional trading manner and DO THE RIGHT AND APPROPRIATE THINGS no matter what the market is doing.
It's really no big deal because the ranges will open up soon. Besides, using our methods you will most likely make a larger S&P500 point accumulation then the other systems do when the ranges are more expanded . I've done all the multi year studies and comparisons before I launched these briefings. So just stay the course, trade the markets according to what is being offered, and know that things will pick up again soon.
Let's see if we can get an early drop that we can buy at some point and watch them move up slowly confounding the bears today. All the best of luck and success in your trading. Mohan"
ESZ03 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Thursday, September 18, 2003
Prev Day - SP
Range: 7.40 Value Area
Range: 3.80 TCF Key Numbers for ES
High 1,029.80
1,029.50-1,028.50 Sell Pivot
1,027.60
Open 1,027.00
Close 1,025.50
1,023.80
Low 1,022.40
1,022.00-1,023.00 Buy Pivot
1,021.60 Pit Bull MA
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and we appreciate you joining with us today.
On our Headline Call for Wednesday we were very specific in suggesting that the market would attempt to make a further rally but would falter (stall) and pullback off those attempted highs.
This is exactly what we got today as the market hit the BreakOut (1029.75) as the first Hour One pivot and then pulled back slowly all day from that price. There was very little volume again on Wednesday and the B/O was hit on a print basis on two occasions after the first hour was complete but with a small amount of contracts trading on that B/O price.
When this occurs you need to make a split second decision and in some cases chase the market a bit to get in. When you become a Professional S&P500 trader you are always confronted with many different situations in the market. Our Morning Call briefings are designed to show you how to navigate these rough S&P500 waters using our proven methods. However, the most important factor is YOU and your skill development along the way as you grow your business and talent.
So as the market hit the B/O and basically pulled back all day. As you can see from the chart there was a reversal mid session that took prices back up to near the entry area. On days like these that are incredibly slow and with tight ranges it is tempting to just get out of the trade. The High Five were giving mixed to bearish readings and if you did decide to hang tough with the market all day you were eventually rewarded with up to 6-7 points.
Some of you may have gotten out sooner just due to the quiet nature of the markets and these crummy ranges. That is your discretion but you can see by holding out the TCF Trade setup did pan out for a decent profit considering the range.
You also should remember our recent discussions about scalping for 5-6 points when the ranges get shrunk down like this. We always want to attempt to hold out for the 8-10 point moves but simple logic and human intelligence tells us that you can't get 8 points very easily out of a 7 point range. So we do need to adjust to the current situation knowing that things will be getting more volatile soon.
Hey, it could be today....so don't fall asleep at the wheel. In fact, we are looking for some more eratic movements off the opening today which we hope will set up a bullish day.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Ideally today we want to see the prices open BELOW 1025.50 and run down lower early. This would set up what we feel would be a bullish type day as prices grind higher and stretch up to make new monthly highs.
Right now our Market Force indicators are in an aberration on the Sell Mode. We fully expect this sell mode to resume soon but for now it appears that they will push against it for a few days possibly.
Is the resignation of the overpayed Grasso character a bullish factor? Perhaps so as the public may interpret this as a good sign of some more cleanup going on in the corporate and Wall Street worlds. This is why we are expecting any early shock drop to set up what could later in the session be a bullish tone.
As I always like to give you clear strategies for the opposite side of the call we make we would look for a slow consolidation lower IF they open higher and run up FIRST off the opening. We are rather expecting the first scenario to occur but keep in mind that a higher opening, early run up and consolidation should end lower for the day similar to what occurred on Wednesday.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Our expectation is that the first Hour One pivot to get hit today will be the BreakDown. If we get the lower opening and early run lower then let's look to Buy the BreakDown to get long for a slow climb higher.
If the market opens Bear Ugly and some strong, market shaking news hits the press then we would look for a Gap lower opening and a lower early run which we would look to short after the first hour. This is not expected today however.
Now the best thing that we feel could happen today for a slow move higher throughout the day would be a fast, lower early move which would reverse. We would look for that point of reversal either at the 1018.00 area just above the Buy Pivot minus the 4.25 stop/pivot or just under the Pit Bull at 1021.60. So to determine what to do with this watch for the SPEED OF THE EARLY MOVE LOWER (if indeed that is what occurs) and the reversal at one of these key areas. Otherwise WAIT for the first hour to complete and Buy the B/D.
Value Area: 1,023.80 - 1,027.60
Due to the tight range of yesterday's action ( or should I say Non Action) we have Value Area and Buy/Sell Pivot targets that are very tight. All we can do is use them as a guideline today and watch the 4.25 stop/pivots around the Buy/Sell Pivots. We won't trade directly off of any of these pivots today.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,022.00 - 1,023.00
No trade at this pivot today but as mentioned above let's watch for the reaction to the --4.25 stop/pivot at 1017.75 for support in conjunction with the BreakDown.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,029.50 - 1,028.50
No Trade at this pivot today and same instructions as above for the Buy Pivot target.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,021.60
We are trading above the Pit Bull and we are going to look for initial support there at this 1021.50 area. If they pop slightly through this to the downside then watch the 1018.00 area for support and let's see if they can rise up and give us a new month high above 1033.00.
On the lower opening and early run lower type opening we would want to see prices rise above the opening price and hold up above that.
Pro Trader's Action
It is very important to remember that our Morning Call briefings are based on the action in the market each day.
This is literally A MARKET PLACE where buyers and sellers come together and "trade goods" at various prices. If the shoppers, the buyers and the sellers don't come to the market place there is not a damn thing Mohan or any other financial advisor can do to create that. If the ranges shrink and the action gets very slow then this will affect the overall markets and hence the TCF Trade setups.
Getting a subscription to our professional briefings means you are committing to learning to be a Pro S&P500 trader. Once in a while this is going to happen where the circumstances dictate extreme patience and relaxation in regards to the action. I have traded these setups for many years and have seen trading days when we have 30 point regular ranges where the B/O and B/D Hour One pivots are getting hit on both sides in one day. Often on these type of days the action is giving us up to +20 point days and I have also seen (and am seeing again now) ridiculously slow action and shrunk ranges which are necessary to scalp whatever bread crumbs you can get out of em
The key though is to NOT GRIPE or become frustrated when it gets a little slow and to NOT CHEER when the ranges go wild. An amateur ALWAYS wants action and gets disgruntled when it is not there whereas a Pro only wants to act in a professional trading manner and DO THE RIGHT AND APPROPRIATE THINGS no matter what the market is doing.
It's really no big deal because the ranges will open up soon. Besides, using our methods you will most likely make a larger S&P500 point accumulation then the other systems do when the ranges are more expanded . I've done all the multi year studies and comparisons before I launched these briefings. So just stay the course, trade the markets according to what is being offered, and know that things will pick up again soon.
Let's see if we can get an early drop that we can buy at some point and watch them move up slowly confounding the bears today. All the best of luck and success in your trading. Mohan"