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[alex01]

Dwer,

Obrigado por postares o Mohan de hoje. Tens seguido os setup's ? Estou a voltar de férias e gostaria de voltar a segui-los.

Cumprimentos,

[Dwer]

Sell rallies on a higher opening and early run up during mid morning session

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend. Hope it was a pleasant and relaxing one for you.

Our Headline Call for Friday was to "look for early attempts to push higher to be met with more selling". What occured is the market got the selling going right off the open with a 4 point gap lower move and a harder push down to one tick off the exact support point of 1005.00 that we gave you. Usually when our call is for selling to occur on a higher open and push up but they hit em early like on Friday what you will see is a slow grind reversal higher off that early shock low. Because we follow our exact TCF system it is better to follow the exact methods as outlined in the Trading Handbook and let the market show us what it wants to do.

The High Five were very bearish when they broke down early but gradually things recovered. Still, our plan with the Bearish High Five was to Sell the Buy Pivot on a reflex rally to that Pivot (1010.75) minus 1.00 point or 1009.75. The market moved up and hit the BreakOut just after the reflex rally and we held through that. After seeing the market pull back to 1007.75 area and then return to the B/O we covered up the original Sell Reversal. After moving 5 points lower off the B/O the stop on that short would have been reduced to just 2 pts. for those of you who shorted the B/O.

So on balance a small loss on either trade with the market responding to the lower early hard selling with a slow grind higher.

Today's Call & Briefing:
We want to look to be on the sell side with a higher opening and early move higher.

The tricky part today will be to see if we can sell the Sell Pivot but higher with resistance up to +4.25 or 1025.50. There is also strong resistance at the Pit Bull at 1020.25. So in combining these numbers and wanting to play it a little safer on bullish Monday's we are going to look for a slight push above the Sell Pivot target which shows some sign of failure THEN try and get short. Now this is only if they set up with the higher opening and early move up.

If they open lower and run lower first we want to be particularly aware of the possibility of a Bear Ugly market setup. Be on the alert for any strong negative market affecting news that sends the market reeling lower on the open with some bad news. If not and we get a quiet, flat opening then we are going to be on the lookout for this shorting opportunity.

We may want to wait it out for the first hour to end and use the B/O as the best pivot. The reason is Monday's. Because Monday's tend to be the most bullish day of the week often waiting patiently before getting short saves some pressure on the stop as the market "hangs up" near the highs for a while.

There is always the distinct possiblility of a bullish BreakOut but it is not expected today. Instead we are expecting to see the selling resume and take us back down to those lows of Friday. Let's see how this plays out and see if we can capture some nice points on the short side.

Value Area: 1,005.70 - 1,012.80
Watch for a breakdown into the VA for bearish pressure. Holding in the VA should take em down to visit the lower area of the VA again. We have the Buy Pivot just above the lows but if we get the higher opening and early run up I don't expect the Buy Pivot to hold.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,008.50 - 1,009.50
Watch the -4.25 stop pivot at 1004.25 for support. If it doesn't come in here then we may get a fast trip down to the 998 area we talked about on Friday as the 2nd lower level below the 1005.00.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,021.25 - 1,020.25
Here is where we will begin looking for a spot to sell. Let's see if they try and push em higher and then pull back to this Sell Pivot. Then we will try and sell early. Otherwise wait for the first hour to transpire and compare the B/O price with the Sell Pivot target action.

If the prices are "hanging up" near the Highs watch out for a BreakOut buy if the Dow is under +50 at the time of the B/O and Naz is charging ahead up +12-15. If TRIN is lower below .70 and VIX is also lower we may get a BreakOut buy. This is not expected however. If the above bullish buy setup is NOT OCCURING then we will want to sell the B/O and look for the continued lower action...could be much lower.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,020.70
This Pit Bull number is right near the Sell Pivot target and as such we are looking for an additional wall of resistance up here. Compare the numbers, watch the High Five and we should be able to tell pretty clearly what is going on.

Pro Trader's Action
Let' try and get short today being aware of the "Monday factor" described above. Any higher opening and early run up should get hit for lower prices. We are going to try a method of hitting the Sell Pivot short that we tried the week before last a few times too when we kept hitting the higher early prices.

Good luck and all the best of success in your trading as we get another exciting week going. Mohan