Mohan 05/09/03
Enviado: 5/9/2003 12:15Market getting ready to pull back. Keep selling rallies and watch for price breakdowns below the lows.
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Welcome to the Morning Call.
Well, the market floundered again today in a tight 7.40 range and did not hit any of the Hour One pivots as prices traded in a 3-5 point range during the mid day session.
TCF Morning Call catches the Top Tick for the 6th time in 2 months
Our call to sell the Sell Pivot target went off perfectly on Thursday. Once again we caught the top tick of the day for a short that came crashing down about 7 pts. This rapid move put in the Hour One BreakDown and the early top tick put in the Hour One BreakOut neither of which were hit as mentioned in Thursday's session. On the short trade we had stated specifically to employ the same special instructions we have been using for the last several days and last week Thursday. You had to have your limit order in there early to get filled. Once in a while a large amount of orders piles up at a certain price and you need to have your order in EARLY to be in the line up to get filled. We had many emails from those who did get filled and a bunch who didn't.
Once again this trade panned out but prices reversed quickly off the lows putting the trade only up a few points so we waited. It was a long, slow grind all day in a ridiculously tight range which is really just the way things have been going lately. The trade would have been covered later in the session for a few points profit if you had not liquidated on the early drop. Don't let this fast market action get to you. If you missed something it's really no big deal. There will always be an abundance of daily TCF Trade seutps so we just wait for the next day's action.
We never got a sell off for the day beyond that morning move. Now the prices have been behaving somewhat heavier and our Headline Call on Thursday had mentioned that we are waiting for a larger scale drop. They may just hold the market up today one more day and then decide it's fate on Monday. That would not be the end of the world to wait for that but these ranges are rather boring. Either way right now we got the Bulls pretty loaded into the market and the news continues its rather slap happy approach to reporting about the markets so we are just continuing to short rallies and pick up handles along the way.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today we will continue along the same path and look to get short at rallies that meet our criteria.
Be a little more cautious getting short at the Sell Pivot Target today. It is rare that the market will repeat itself. Now that it already hit the sell pivot 3 times and pulled back the 3rd time is usually NOT a charm for such a trade setup. Just be prepared to see if they want to stretch a little higher before getting short at this pivot. We are still going to hit the Sell Pivot Target if it shows up but just a little more patiently today.
Prices holding below 1024.50 should be a weak sign as that was the TRIN Sell on open signal from yesterday. Sometimes there is a delayed reaction and as the TRIN Sell did not get "stopped out" on the +12-15 point Mental stop then we could still see em get hammered lower.
You have to remember that as a professional trader when I write these briefings and they have a Bearish bias I am not at all stuck on the Bearish side nor do I really care if they go lower or higher so I can be "right". That is all very, very old B.S to me and long ago I learned (the hard way as most do) that it is absolutely detrimental to Pro trading to worry about being "right". I have no vested interest in being "right" any more than I care if I am "wrong". In futures trading being "right" to someone with no experience in futures can actually be the wrong market action for the day...or shall we say the least profitable.
Making money is the "right side of the market" and that all depends on if you ARE FOLLOWING A PROVEN SYSTEM or not. Of course that is all we do here at the Morning Call and I make the calls here based on simply reading our Market Force indicators and reporting that to you. So I hope you can understand this.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY:We will be looking to get short again today at some point in the game. It appears we may get some leakage to the downside and there are some supposedly important government reports coming out. Sometimes I get emails asking me if I follow these reports. I really don't pay much attention to them because our TCF system tends to get on the same side of the market direction fed by these reports in advance. They do affect the markets though without a doubt.
Today may be another non event with a tight range so we need to be willing to just take the day off if we are not getting any volatility. If we get a higher opening then we can look to short the BreakOut IF that is the first Hour One pivot hit.
We can also be on the lookout for a Bear Ugly day but I expect that will occur early next week. Either way check the TCF Trading handbook and you will know what to look for on these setups. As mentioned we will look to hit the Sell Pivot again but with a little more caution then just putting a limit order in there. More on that below.
Value Area: 1,024.70 - 1,028.90
Here you can see the bottom of the VA IS Thursday's opening area and this is the same area as the TRIN SELL. So this number now has even more value in determining market strenght or weakness. If they open in the VA and then move below 1024.70 then be ready to see if the Buy Pivot will reverse and become resistance with that special setup.
Learn our TCF setups by becoming a subscriber today and getting access to our On line Trading Handbook. In this Handbook you will learn all the highly effective TCF setups we use to grab the 8-10 point moves that normally occur in the markets. Thanks for joining and I will look forward to working with you.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,023.50 - 1,024.50
No Trade at this target today on the buy side. Let's watch for a "Buy Pivot becomes sell reversal with a bear High Five". This setup is the most common one that occurs when the market is being "snuck down". Keep an eye out for this and review it in the TCF Trading Handbook if you are still not 100% sure how it works. It's very simple.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,031.00 - 1,030.00
We can go ahead and sell this sell pivot again but just be a little more cautious about the +4.25 stop/pivot above the 1031.00 area. This would be at 1035.25 where we would expect the Buying to halt IF they High Five is showing bearish signals.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,006.60
The Pit Bull is inching up but we are still above and thus need to be sure to buy drops if we get a large one down to this area. If our Call for a larger scale downside move is correct then we should be approaching the Crossover Alert within 10 handles of this soon which would be at the 1017.00 area.
Pro Trader's Action
Now don't you dare think I sound like a broken record. LOL. With the Selling of the rallies Headlne Calls. I'm just trying to position us on the side of the market that the easiest money will come from. They are not really going up substantially and the way our Market Force indicators are setting up we just want to keep positioning for lower prices.
We are ONLY concerned with being on the side of the market that will most easily produce an 8-10 point move. Of course you cannot make 8-10 points in a S&P500 market with a 7.50 range. Can you? (I actually got some emails asking me "if your system is supposed to make 8 points why isn't it today") OK...sure. Let me think about that answer first. LOL.
Anyway, my friends, the older pros at S&P500 trading are chuckling with me right now. By the way also... For what it's worth, anyone who has not sat in front of a screen and watched the S&P500 ticks for less than 5 years is actually relatively new to this business.
Now, that is not a judgement of anyones skill or ego or how smart they are but just a reality based experience thing. Certain events happen along the way after you have been through many market scenarios watching the one minute candles and how they react to every report, war, scandal or other wierd thing the markets throw at you.
Ask any COP the difference between a guy on the force for 2 years and one who has worked the beat for 5 years. I am only saying this to encourage you because if you have joined with us, as I hope, to become a career trader then you have LOTS TO LOOK FORWARD TOO in one of the most fabulous businesses on the planet.
So let's really take our trading serious today, be willing to really start to peel away the layers that beginners rarely shred. Things such as caring which way the markets go, "demanding" that the market go in your direction because you have been succesful at other businesses and you are a highly motivated winner (the market doesn't care who the hell you are) or that you KNOW YOU ARE RIGHT therefore the market MUST satisfy your ego and move in that direction.
Let's consider the tremendous value of what I call "Professional Patience" as we watch the screen following a proven system and not getting upset when the market is simply not going anywhere. None of it matters when you go pro because you are alive in your confidence that you have proven, tested, extremely valuable resources within your knowledge of the markets which will stand the test of time.
Consider looking forward to that time tested wisdom after you have sat in front of the screen for over 5 years and what it feels like to be able to often "see" where the candles are headed. Visualize this condition and become a part of it.
Many of you attending one of our seminars coming up soon will be spending almost 2 hours with the brilliant trading psychology expert Mark Douglas. I've known about Mark since 1992 when I met him in Chicago. Be sure to get his new book "Trading in the Zone" especially in preparation for the TCF seminar. You will be as big of an admirer of him as I am. click on the link at the bottom of this page and JOIN ME IN FLORIDA on the beach. It's party time with Mohan. Don't be late.
Good luck and let's see if we can get some action moving to the downside as our TCF Market Force indicators are alerting us is coming. Otherwise we will scalp what we can get just as we have been doing all this last week.
I'll see you in the action. Have a great weekend and all the best to you and your family that supports you in this great Chess game of life...trading the S&P500. Mohan
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Welcome to the Morning Call.
Well, the market floundered again today in a tight 7.40 range and did not hit any of the Hour One pivots as prices traded in a 3-5 point range during the mid day session.
TCF Morning Call catches the Top Tick for the 6th time in 2 months
Our call to sell the Sell Pivot target went off perfectly on Thursday. Once again we caught the top tick of the day for a short that came crashing down about 7 pts. This rapid move put in the Hour One BreakDown and the early top tick put in the Hour One BreakOut neither of which were hit as mentioned in Thursday's session. On the short trade we had stated specifically to employ the same special instructions we have been using for the last several days and last week Thursday. You had to have your limit order in there early to get filled. Once in a while a large amount of orders piles up at a certain price and you need to have your order in EARLY to be in the line up to get filled. We had many emails from those who did get filled and a bunch who didn't.
Once again this trade panned out but prices reversed quickly off the lows putting the trade only up a few points so we waited. It was a long, slow grind all day in a ridiculously tight range which is really just the way things have been going lately. The trade would have been covered later in the session for a few points profit if you had not liquidated on the early drop. Don't let this fast market action get to you. If you missed something it's really no big deal. There will always be an abundance of daily TCF Trade seutps so we just wait for the next day's action.
We never got a sell off for the day beyond that morning move. Now the prices have been behaving somewhat heavier and our Headline Call on Thursday had mentioned that we are waiting for a larger scale drop. They may just hold the market up today one more day and then decide it's fate on Monday. That would not be the end of the world to wait for that but these ranges are rather boring. Either way right now we got the Bulls pretty loaded into the market and the news continues its rather slap happy approach to reporting about the markets so we are just continuing to short rallies and pick up handles along the way.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today we will continue along the same path and look to get short at rallies that meet our criteria.
Be a little more cautious getting short at the Sell Pivot Target today. It is rare that the market will repeat itself. Now that it already hit the sell pivot 3 times and pulled back the 3rd time is usually NOT a charm for such a trade setup. Just be prepared to see if they want to stretch a little higher before getting short at this pivot. We are still going to hit the Sell Pivot Target if it shows up but just a little more patiently today.
Prices holding below 1024.50 should be a weak sign as that was the TRIN Sell on open signal from yesterday. Sometimes there is a delayed reaction and as the TRIN Sell did not get "stopped out" on the +12-15 point Mental stop then we could still see em get hammered lower.
You have to remember that as a professional trader when I write these briefings and they have a Bearish bias I am not at all stuck on the Bearish side nor do I really care if they go lower or higher so I can be "right". That is all very, very old B.S to me and long ago I learned (the hard way as most do) that it is absolutely detrimental to Pro trading to worry about being "right". I have no vested interest in being "right" any more than I care if I am "wrong". In futures trading being "right" to someone with no experience in futures can actually be the wrong market action for the day...or shall we say the least profitable.
Making money is the "right side of the market" and that all depends on if you ARE FOLLOWING A PROVEN SYSTEM or not. Of course that is all we do here at the Morning Call and I make the calls here based on simply reading our Market Force indicators and reporting that to you. So I hope you can understand this.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY:We will be looking to get short again today at some point in the game. It appears we may get some leakage to the downside and there are some supposedly important government reports coming out. Sometimes I get emails asking me if I follow these reports. I really don't pay much attention to them because our TCF system tends to get on the same side of the market direction fed by these reports in advance. They do affect the markets though without a doubt.
Today may be another non event with a tight range so we need to be willing to just take the day off if we are not getting any volatility. If we get a higher opening then we can look to short the BreakOut IF that is the first Hour One pivot hit.
We can also be on the lookout for a Bear Ugly day but I expect that will occur early next week. Either way check the TCF Trading handbook and you will know what to look for on these setups. As mentioned we will look to hit the Sell Pivot again but with a little more caution then just putting a limit order in there. More on that below.
Value Area: 1,024.70 - 1,028.90
Here you can see the bottom of the VA IS Thursday's opening area and this is the same area as the TRIN SELL. So this number now has even more value in determining market strenght or weakness. If they open in the VA and then move below 1024.70 then be ready to see if the Buy Pivot will reverse and become resistance with that special setup.
Learn our TCF setups by becoming a subscriber today and getting access to our On line Trading Handbook. In this Handbook you will learn all the highly effective TCF setups we use to grab the 8-10 point moves that normally occur in the markets. Thanks for joining and I will look forward to working with you.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,023.50 - 1,024.50
No Trade at this target today on the buy side. Let's watch for a "Buy Pivot becomes sell reversal with a bear High Five". This setup is the most common one that occurs when the market is being "snuck down". Keep an eye out for this and review it in the TCF Trading Handbook if you are still not 100% sure how it works. It's very simple.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,031.00 - 1,030.00
We can go ahead and sell this sell pivot again but just be a little more cautious about the +4.25 stop/pivot above the 1031.00 area. This would be at 1035.25 where we would expect the Buying to halt IF they High Five is showing bearish signals.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,006.60
The Pit Bull is inching up but we are still above and thus need to be sure to buy drops if we get a large one down to this area. If our Call for a larger scale downside move is correct then we should be approaching the Crossover Alert within 10 handles of this soon which would be at the 1017.00 area.
Pro Trader's Action
Now don't you dare think I sound like a broken record. LOL. With the Selling of the rallies Headlne Calls. I'm just trying to position us on the side of the market that the easiest money will come from. They are not really going up substantially and the way our Market Force indicators are setting up we just want to keep positioning for lower prices.
We are ONLY concerned with being on the side of the market that will most easily produce an 8-10 point move. Of course you cannot make 8-10 points in a S&P500 market with a 7.50 range. Can you? (I actually got some emails asking me "if your system is supposed to make 8 points why isn't it today") OK...sure. Let me think about that answer first. LOL.
Anyway, my friends, the older pros at S&P500 trading are chuckling with me right now. By the way also... For what it's worth, anyone who has not sat in front of a screen and watched the S&P500 ticks for less than 5 years is actually relatively new to this business.
Now, that is not a judgement of anyones skill or ego or how smart they are but just a reality based experience thing. Certain events happen along the way after you have been through many market scenarios watching the one minute candles and how they react to every report, war, scandal or other wierd thing the markets throw at you.
Ask any COP the difference between a guy on the force for 2 years and one who has worked the beat for 5 years. I am only saying this to encourage you because if you have joined with us, as I hope, to become a career trader then you have LOTS TO LOOK FORWARD TOO in one of the most fabulous businesses on the planet.
So let's really take our trading serious today, be willing to really start to peel away the layers that beginners rarely shred. Things such as caring which way the markets go, "demanding" that the market go in your direction because you have been succesful at other businesses and you are a highly motivated winner (the market doesn't care who the hell you are) or that you KNOW YOU ARE RIGHT therefore the market MUST satisfy your ego and move in that direction.
Let's consider the tremendous value of what I call "Professional Patience" as we watch the screen following a proven system and not getting upset when the market is simply not going anywhere. None of it matters when you go pro because you are alive in your confidence that you have proven, tested, extremely valuable resources within your knowledge of the markets which will stand the test of time.
Consider looking forward to that time tested wisdom after you have sat in front of the screen for over 5 years and what it feels like to be able to often "see" where the candles are headed. Visualize this condition and become a part of it.
Many of you attending one of our seminars coming up soon will be spending almost 2 hours with the brilliant trading psychology expert Mark Douglas. I've known about Mark since 1992 when I met him in Chicago. Be sure to get his new book "Trading in the Zone" especially in preparation for the TCF seminar. You will be as big of an admirer of him as I am. click on the link at the bottom of this page and JOIN ME IN FLORIDA on the beach. It's party time with Mohan. Don't be late.
Good luck and let's see if we can get some action moving to the downside as our TCF Market Force indicators are alerting us is coming. Otherwise we will scalp what we can get just as we have been doing all this last week.
I'll see you in the action. Have a great weekend and all the best to you and your family that supports you in this great Chess game of life...trading the S&P500. Mohan