CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

A impressão que eu tenho é que ele faz uma excelente leitura de pontos de inversão, mas que depois falha no timming dos big moves . Mas isso é indiferente porque quando ele diz "espero um dia muito negativo" e de qq modo já fechou o trade curto ou longo antes do fim do dia, seguiu o set-up longo ou curto independentemente do que prevê para o mercado em geral.

há quanto tempo anda este tipo a apregoar uma grande queda no mercado?

Market ready to make a large move to the downside this week. Keep selling rallies!

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Wow! We have got some TCF Market Force Indicators converging today to form a HUGE Sell signal. I know they held em up again barely on Wednesday but you can see from the charts that selling was the place to be even though they didn't knock em out of the sky. But thats coming! VERY, VERY SOON. Be on the alert. If you know how to use options on OEX or SPX you might consider some. Use rallies to load em.

You can see from the chart that our recommended TCF setup to Sell the Sell Pivot target panned out Wednesday. They kept pushing em lower without much pressure or pain on the 5 point stop but it turned out to be just another one of these damn low range days. HOWEVER, keep selling rallies as they are ready to shove this rally down the bulls throats and big time. The riggers have really pulled this one off. They got the news media going bullish, the numbers cooking upside BUT as pointed out on yesterdays briefing...all this hoopla for what? A 100 point Dow rally the last 2 weeks? You gotta be kidding me! What's the big, bullish deal? And according to my one of the truly insightful financial advisors and friends of mine, David Nichols of 21st Century Advisors (you do get his newsletter don't you?) the majority of the streets advisors are bullish too.

Now not to sound like a CT (conspiracy theorist) but how odd is it when you see the major media networks cranking out the bullish rhetoric on the financial channels yet find that their insiders are unloading their stock? Very odd indeed. Almost as if they don't even care anymore if we KNOW they are rigging the thing.

Anyway, we sold the Sell Pivot target at 1027.25 at the bottom of the small 1 point zone just to get in. Took a little heat on the stop but using PROFESSIONAL PATIENCE held out with the High Five showing a higher TRIN and VIX (a bearish sign) to find large red candles showing up as they crunched em lower. Then, here comes the support. That's OK, we don't want EVERYONE jumping on the drop just yet do we...and besides, the TV says it's bullish.

So after some patience and a slight grind we saw after the 2:00 O clock fast drop that they were holding up we decided to take something out of the trade. It's too early in the game for the full pounding to the downside. So on balance about 2-4 pts + profit for the day on that trade depending on where you got in.

Not a bad day, not a great day. But be sure to pat yourself on the back for doing the right things and staying short. The bears did a little better than the dip buyers on Wednesday so that's cool.

Now, here's whats cooking for today. Yikes!

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call for today is looking for a sell off that we expect will be more robust than just a pullback. I cannot say for sure if it will occur today but I feel it will START today. There were under currents of this on Wednesday as you can see on the chart above. The longer spiked candles dropping off the highs and just the more willingness of traders to sell the market.

Today's market is giving us a TRIN Sell on open indicator gauge: We use these reliable TRIN Buy/sell signals as a gauge for additional market bias information. This setup is NOT an offical TCF trade setup but an older mechanical trade system that has about a 65% reliability factor. What we do is monitor today's opening as the gauge and if the prices HOLD BELOW THE OPENING we will consider this to be strong evidence of the chance for a 2 day lower move. If the prices hold ABOVE the opening then the trade gauge is faltering. We consider a 12-15 pt. mental stop as being the point where the trade idea is cancelled. So we will be simply use this today in addition to our regular indicators such as the High Five.

The reason we are preparing for a larger scale sell off is because our Market Force primary underlying force has been in a Buy mode since August 6th with the Dow around 9061 and S&P500 futures at 965.10. Today that underlying force has rolled to a Sell mode. Usually on the first "opening day" of that new mode which could be today or tomorrow is a large move in the direction of the new market force. Honing in on the exact day can be tricky but I am giving you this information here so you can track it with me. Sometimes, as with all things in trading, you get a large move opposite of the mode in your face just to keep you humble but I am expecting things to start heading lower pretty soon.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: Let's look to get short once again at the Sell Pivot target if we get there in early in the game. If they open right at the Sell Pivot then watch the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1034.75 to hold back the buying. Like last Thursday and this Wednesday look for the prices to try and push above the Sell Pivot and then as they fall back finding resistance go short. Use a 5 point stop beyond the original Sell Pivot (the top number).

Sell the BreakOut again today if that is the first Hour One pivot hit. Wednesday was tricky because we had the APPEARANCE of a BreakOut buy setup however our Headline Call was clearly looking to sell rallies and was stressing how our Market Force indicators wanted us to stay on the sell side. Also, I had mentioned in the Morning Call on Wednesday that we wanted to Sell the BreakOut and look to add +2-4 points if the High Five were bullish which gave you a higher price to short at. If you stood aside due to confusion on this no one would have blamed you. We are continuing to press the short side however.

If the BreakDown is the first pivot hit then we have to see where we are positioned at that point. I am not interested to Buy this current market environment so if we are short from higher levels and we see the B/D get hit first as the Hour One pivot then we may look to cover the short possibly -2-4 below that.

Value Area: 1,024.60 - 1,028.00
With the VA up near the Highs it could be very possible that we see prices open BELOW the VA and HOLD BELOW the VA. This would be a bearish price situation if they can't climb back into the Value Area. Also, institutions would be inclined to put on sell programs below the VA as is often their practice.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,023.00 - 1,024.00
No trade today at this target. Let's watch the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1018.75 to see how support there shapes up. If they blow this stop area to the downside then we are going to be looking for a reversal off this Buy pivot on the short side. Check your TCF Trading Handbook for details.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,030.50 - 1,029.50
As mentioned above in the TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR area we want to Sell this Sell Pivot target using the same idea as we did yesterday (Wednesday's Morning Call) and last Thursday's Sell Pivot. You can reference those briefigs for more information but I have summarized it above. Usually you do not get 2 days of the same setup repeating succesfully so we are not expecting this but still with the topping action occuring it is certainly possible.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,003.70
On a larger drop we still want to maintain a "Buy Drops" mentality down near to this number. However, that would be a temporary buy as we are expecting they could move through this number pretty soon to the downside. It's a way's down there so for now let's see what kind of lower action we can get and just take it "day by day" like Johnny Rambo. (remember that super cool movie with Sylvester Stallone? He went into the jungles and rescued a whole crew of prisoners under nearly impossible odds. After it was over they asked him how he would now survive). Sometimes that's how an S&P500 trader feels after pulling through of a whole slew of ups and downs all day but holding ground and ending up with a profit.

Pro Trader's Action
I don't ever mean to sound too one sided in a particular bias. And actually it is never "Me"- Mohan anyway. I am just reading and interpreting our TCF Market Force indicators for all of us to see which side is going to be prominent. The only thing that could throw water on this setup now is if the market took off to the downside and all the Bears started leaping all over the drop and shorting the market. That would at least temporarily halt the lower price move. Let's see what today brings, attempt to get on the sell side again, and see if they can take em down more decisively.

Good luck and all the best of success. Let's stay centered and I'll see you in the action. Mohan