CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Obrigado Dwer! tenho andado um pouco distraida, mas a prtir de hoje vou recomeçar a olhar com muiiiito cuidadinho para o mohan outra vez....

Market expected to push higher early today. Continue to Sell rallies for a pullback using the correct TCF Trade setups. *see special educational recap today

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.

On our Headline Call for Tuesday we were looking for the market to move higher and see prices "hang up" near the highs most of the morning session while pulling back later in the day.

We had suggested Selling the early Sell Pivot target and gave very specific instructions on how to catch that. The S&P500 gapped up on the open about +3pts. near the sell pivot target and following our instructions you could have got short at the 1011.50 price as upside resistance set in. The market pulled back as much as 7 points from that point and then gradually rose back to the 1011.50 price. If you got short at this price and DID NOT take profits on the drop you would have wanted to get out of that position at Break even at the worst for a scratch trade. The move lower off the sell pivot was very quick.

The S&P500 prices acted as we expected "hanging up" near the highs and later moved up beyond the BreakOut price of 1013.50 with a Bullish/Neutral High Five. Because of this High 5 we added 2-4 pts to that high to create the Sell zone for selling the B/O. The reason we would have wanted to Sell the BreakOut is because the market was NOT setting up for a bullish BreakOut Buy acording to our TCF Trade setup rules. Upon getting short at the 1015.50-1017.50 area we would have set the stop at 6 pts. above the B/O or 1019.50. If you got short according to our TCF trade setup that would have represented a total stop from the entry of only 2-4 pts. maximum loss.

After hitting the BreakOut with the prices "hanging up" near the highs the market kept pushing higher with very small pullbacks. Ultimately our Headline Call for the markets to sell off later in the day turned out to be wrong and prices pushed higher and hit our stop at 1019.00 for a 2-4 point loss.

So on balance we had an up to +7 pt. gain for those who caught some of the early drop from the Sell Pivot target and a 2-4 pt. loss on selling the BreakOut +2-4 pts. Depending on your situation you would have had a maximum loss of 4 pts. or as much as a +5 pt. gain. I have shown these setups in the chart above so you can see clearly how the TCF setups occured and by reading the previous days briefing you can see our recommendations for these setups and instructions which were WRITTEN THE NIGHT BEFORE.

Although I cater to our astute traders and researchers who carefully read our 21st Century Futures briefing and understand our methods I like to be sure to assist our new subscribers and visitors too. It's important for our new researchers/traders to understand what we do and how the futures markets work in conjunction with our TCF Morning Call.

I got an email today from an obviously inexperienced trader who has not studied our briefings very carefully (or apparently the S&P500 futures markets either). I wanted to use his comments to assist some of our new subscribers and visitors in understanding how our TCF Morning Call briefings function in comparison to a lot of the "CNBC educated" type mentalities that are out there that only see the markets "after the fact" .

He remarked that:" Mohan, you keep saying to Short Rallies in your briefings. Can't you see the market is going higher?". Of course he see's it going higher, but as mentioned above, after its rallied.

Well, first there is the macro version answer to this and the micro. First the Macro.

I have been stating since the middle of the so-called Iraq War when there was literally blood in the streets, everything on the news was like hell on planet Earth, and the market kept pushing lower that we should be looking for a longer term rally into the end of the year from that point.

Of course the emails came flooding in saying I was nuts and how could we POSSIBLY get a rally with all this Bear Ugly action going on. Well, although I am NOT a longer term forecaster we can see what has happened as all the Bears have gotten cleaned out strongly since then. I reiterated that on this Tuesday's (yesterday's) Morning Call as we were coming back from the labor day weekend, summer was officially over and we were starting a new "back to work" type traditional month. I have repeated the bullish scenario idea many times during the last 3-4 months on these briefings.

Now, in answer to this un-researched email comment I want to present the Micro Version of the last 2 weeks.

Yes, I have been saying in the Headline Call frequently over the last two weeks to continue to sell rallies but that is in RELATION TO MAKING MONEY IN THE MARKETS ...NOT A MARKET BIAS. Big difference. Here are the results of the TCF setups over the last 10 days of Morning Call briefings.

Fri. 29 ...No Headline call or trades. We gave an clear bullish bias for that day.

Thur.28...+8pts. selling an early rally

Wed. 27... Breakeven day.

Tues. 26.. Headline was for a mild rally. We wanted to Buy the BreakDown pivot. Market missed the B/D buy by about a point and ran up all day.

Mon 25....+5 pts. buying the market.

Fri. 22...+10 pts. Selling the market.

Thurs 21..+8pts selling the market.

Wed. 20...No TCF setups occured

Tues.19...+8pts. selling the market.

Mon.18....-2pt. loss selling the market.

So overall you can see that although our bias primarily had been to sell rallies (with a few buys in between) that is NOT a short term directional call. It is our Market Force indicators telling us which would be the best side of the market to make 8-10 points on for the easiest profits available THAT DAY. Our goal and purpose of these briefings is to assist you to make those trades.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline call is going to be looking once again for the markets to push up early today and then get hit with selling off of a TCF Trade setup. It may be right after the first hour or they may "hang up" some more before the pullback.

I am glad I explained more to you in the recap today because we need to repeat the same essential instructions today. You need to realize if you are going to follow our ideas and methods that IT DOESN'T MATTER WHERE IT SEEMS LIKE THE MARKET IS GOING when you trade the S&P500 futures. The goal is to get on the side of the market that is most likely to make you the most points in a predictable way.

I tried to show you that in the recap section by listing those TCF Trade setup recaps. You may think the market is rallying but that is the ILLUSION OF THE MARKETS AND PUBLIC OPINION. 10 sessions ago on Monday August 18, the Dow closed at 9412 and the S&P500 big cars closed at 998.80. The Dow has rallied about +111 bucks from the 18th and the S&P500 has rallied about 21 points. BIG DEAL. That is NOT a rally friends.

So for today our Market Force indicators are looking for rallies to get hit with selling UNLESS we see the High Five get strong again and bullish. Yesterday on Tuesday the High Five more or less snuck up to being bullish after the TRIN was higher mid session along with the VIX showing definite bearish qualities. So getting stopped out will happen once in a while with the TCF setups. That is the wonderful world of trading the S&P500...LOL... Our stops placed in our exact TCF system protected us from any damage and we now can try and get short again today if we get the right setup.

One of the keys to seeing the bullish action would have been how prices recovered from the early drop off the sell pivot target, "hung up" at the Highs (which is usually a bullish sign) and then had those very small pullbacks before moving higher. If we see similar action today it will assist you in possibly cutting the short trade faster or making the stop tighter sooner but usually we want to let the TCF setups just work their magic.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We can try on an early move up to Sell the Sell Pivot target again. Use a 5 point stop and the same, special instructions from yesterday's Morning Call briefing. We are in a special situation and trying to get short for a larger scale pullback.

Sell the BreakOut today and also use the same approach as we did on Tuesday. If the market is bullish then add 2-4 points to the B/O and sell there. Read the Trading Handbook carefully to set the stop correctly.

If the BreakDown is the first Hour One pivot hit today then compare it with the Buy Pivot target and the High Five to see if its a buy. I am inclined to the sell side of the market today and really do not want to buy an early drop unless it is clearly a bullish or bullish/Neutral high Five. I may just stand aside on a B/D Hour One pivot if that is hit first. Will have to see when we get there.

Although we are not expecting a Bear Ugly type market scenario always be prepared for that. If you see the market gap lower substantially and there is some very negative news on TV which is being reported as affecting the markets with the High Five in Bear Ugly conditions then think....."I need to get short". We can try and front run the B/D under such conditions. After you have seen your first TRUE BEAR UGLY trading day you will understand these better. I was doing some research over the weekend and in the last 3 months we have only had 2 of them. Thousands of our subscribers have seen their first Bear Ugly day before and so its easier for them to wait for that setup.

Value Area: 1,008.10 - 1,015.40
On any higher opening or early rally let's watch for a pullback into the VA to gauge whether the market is going to get hit or not. Tuesday (yesterday) gave us a good example of VA support. Although the 1007.00 area was the top of the VA when the prices rapidly dove below 1007.00 to 1004.00 area they quickly recovered ABOVE THE VA. This was a strong hint of support coming in. You can use the same parameter for today. Look for that 1015.40 penetration to HOLD BELOW the top of the VA then the short side will reveal itself in a more convincing way.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,010.25 - 1,011.25
This was strong support on Tuesday's action. Will they hold today? I don't expect they will on a higher opening. This price is near the bottom of the VA and if the -4.25 stop/pivot is hit at 1006.00 then you will find this area to be new RESISTANCE. So let's not make a trade at this area today but compare it with the B/D and see what things look like with the 2 stacked side by side.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,028.25 - 1,027.25
Let's go ahead and Sell this Sell Pivot target today. If we open up near this price then use the same instructions as yesterday to get short and use a 5 point initial stop. Good luck.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,001.20
We are now in a "Buy Drops" mentality on any large drops in the market that move below the VA and closer to this pivot. Because we are looking for a larger scale drop to hit soon we will still be selling rallies within the context of our overall Buy drops understanding as long as we are above this pivot.

Pro Trader's Action
Well, we are off to a nice start with September. Volume is coming back in to the markets nicely and we made it through the very slow summer. Let's see if we can get a solid bias for the week going and keep these ranges expanding.

For those of you who are new visitors to our Morning Call we welcome you and invite you to become a regular subscriber. For the rediculous cost of only 1$ a day you can get our Morning Call each day and access to our TCF Trading Handbook. I have had subscribers tell me the Handbook was worth over 100,000$ to them in their trading and it's yours FREE with your subscription. You will then be able to follow these briefings with precision and accuracy after reading it through.

Let's see if we can get on the Sell side today again and get some action to the downside going. Otherwise if things continue to be bullish we will have our TCF setup to alert us to that.

All the best of luck and success today. I'll see you in the action. Mohan