CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

...é que não estava habituado a ver mais de um artigo por dia aqui no forum...

Há dias que escreve 5 ou 6! Eu é que só costumo transcrever aqueles que acho interessantes.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

...não é habitual do Cramer pois não?

"Wait Until Expiration to Short September"

By James J. Cramer
09/02/2003 09:47 AM EDT


"If you think September's going to be bad -- and it has been a month that the Dow has declined about a percent -- can I urge you to wait until expiration to short it?

The main reason September has been weak is related to the nature of the mutual fund year. Many mutual funds take their capital gains by the end of October. Each year, though, it seems to happen earlier. I suspect this year could be a very pressured year because so many mutual funds are up big. They will be seeking to lock in gains in early October.


Of course, you can't wait until October; you have to anticipate the decline. I think the most likely moment, if you want to play a calendar issue, would be to wait until right after expiration to begin the bet. Mind you, while I think the selling will be powerful, I am still quite bullish about the market. But I think that you have to recognize that the September jitters come in part because of a supply from deals -- and I don't see many of those -- and in part because of the mutual fund selling. I suspect that only the latter will play a role, and that won't kick in until we are closer to October.

I know many people won't be able to resist the short side, but I think you could get crushed if you don't time it right. "

(in www.realmoney.com)