Venda do Novo Banco pode representar 8% do M&A na banca europeia este ano

[Incognitus]

Chateia um bocado que o tipo ande a dizer que fez dinheiro em "Sell the rallies" quando o mercado sobe quase todos os dias.

Especialmente quando a queda é dentro da primeira hora, na qual ele supostamente não transacciona.

[Dwer]

No Headline Call today due to the extra thin holiday volume.


Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, August 28, 2003:
Sell 998.25/ Cover up to +8 pts. (Sell the Sell Pivot target)

Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good morning and thanks for joining us this Friday.

Well, now you know why we call S&P500 futures trading, "The fastest game in town".

The market made the expected drop off the Sell Pivot Target we had recommended selling early. We had suggested taking the short trade at the Sell Pivot Target and to watch how they responded to the +4.25 stop before entering. This special instruction was to override the idea of avoiding the Sell Pivot Target if the prices opened up on this number.

We wanted to get short badly early today with the gap up open and after seeing the high of 999.75 hold and start to pull back we took a chance and shorted em just under that. The market held nicely under the sell pivot area just barely until several bits of news came out and sent the markets reeling down hard and fast. Our general policy is to cover a short whenever we see the market selling off in such a fast and lively fashion and ESPECIALLY when it is hitting our 8 point profit target. So I am recording "up to +8 pts. Profit" because some of you may have got short at lower levels or cut the trade after it started to bounce off the lows. It was a rather surprising fast drop as we had expected lower prices earlier but not to have them occur so rapidly.

After the short sale was complete we stood aside as the holiday volume was low as usual at this time and a rather confusing underlying bullishness pervades the market usually on this day which was not exactly in sync with our indicators. We had suggested on the Morning Call Thursday to be willing to stand aside if there was any confusion and Thursday definitely qualified for that after the early short off the sell pivot target.

Today's Call & Briefing:
There is no Headline Call for today and therefore no trade recommendations. This is usually what we do every year on the Friday before labor day. We often see on the pre-labor day Friday that there is an underlying bullishness as the market welcomes home the large fund managers from their vacations and the month comes to a close. I had mentioned this yesterday also on the Morning Call. So for today we will stand aside and look forward to expanding ranges next week and more volatility.

Value Area: 992.30 - 999.70
Let's watch this area today to research how the market handles this zone. No trade action today so we won't be looking for any bias on this sections commentary today.

Buy Pivot Target: 993.25 - 994.25
No trade at this target today as there is no Headline Call and therefore no trades recommended.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,006.75 - 1,005.75
No trade at this target today.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 997.20
They held at the Pit Bull yesterday after dipping slightly below it and then ran up again. We are still in a CROSSOVER ALERT on this number. This means that we keep an eye out to see if prices are going to move to the other side of it and create a new mind set. When we are on the higher side of this number we maintain a "Buy Drops" mentality and when below the Pit Bull we hold a "Sell Rallies" type mindset. CROSSOVER ALERT simply means when we close within 10 handles of this number we are going to be on alert for any crossover that could send prices moving rapidly in the new direction. So for now although we have once again moved above the Pit Bull we will be still looking to buy drops but having more of a neutral bias until things can become more decided.

Pro Trader's Action
Today is an abbreviated Morning Call as we are looking for low volume today and just a day when most of the Professional traders take off early or don't come in at all.

After you have reached a certain point in your career where you are steadily successful you tend to look forward to the extra days off. Because we train Pro traders here in our Morning Call we want to also adapt this policy and take these low volume days off.

Struggling to trade on days when the volume is light and the whipsaw risk is higher is really not an appropriate strategy for professionals. When you know that our TCF trade setups will consistently provide you with trading opportunities on good regular volume days, then you see there is no point to chasing higher risk points on pre-holiday trading days.

As we close out the month today the results show that the TCF Trade setups that occurred during August produced a gain of approximately +56 S&P500 points.

Using the Emini as the contract of choice for most that would show a gain of:

56 pts. X 50$ (per contract) = $2800 per emini contract on approx. 15 Trades. This would be equivalent to approximately 60% return on 4000$ margin per emini or 120% return for the month using 2000$ margin per emini which is more reasonable.

So on balance a very decent month in about the mid range of what the TCF setups usually accumulate. There were many, many days this month however where the range was very low and the setups either did not occur or the trade was scratched. So in light of this it was a very excellent month on a very slow, short range trading environment.

Have a great extra long weekend and we'll look forward to updating you on Tuesday's Morning Call. All the best to you and your loved ones who support you in this great Chess Game of life... Trading the "fastest game in town", the S&P500 futures. Mohan