Venda do Novo Banco pode representar 8% do M&A na banca europeia este ano

[Dwer]

Look for an early rally today up to resistance at the 1000-1002 handle to get hit with selling and take the market lower today. CAUTION: Lower open and early drop will consolidate and close in middle of range.


Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, August 26, 2003:
No TCF Trade setups for Tuesday

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.

Check out that SLAMMER action on Tuesday! We had mentioned that one of our proprietary indicators we call a "Slammer" had showed up for Tuesday's trade and look at the result. It was especially potent due to the Headline Call looking for a mild rally and the lower early squashing of the prices. This combination along with the Slammer indicator (which is known for identifying large reversals) clearly was looking for those lows to find support and rally.

Unfortunately we just barely missed getting the B/D price in order to Buy so there was no TCF trade setup for the day. I know a lot of you got long based on our Headline Call and that's super cool. Great job. Here I am just reporting on the official TCF setups as that is the responsibility of this section. But if you got long when you saw strong support come in and you made money then that is the goal. The market opened lower today and then rallied some before dropping off again. There was no strong, negative news which was upsetting the market and giving it that heavy feeling associated with a Bear Ugly day. A true Bear Ugly day is completely obvious when it occurs with a very weighted feeling to the market, no reflex rallies off the early lower open, and bad news which is not just about some stock's earnings or other common news but something very significant. Again, I have mentioned many times before that Bear Ugly days are very, very rare usually only occurring about 1-2 times a month at most. Once a real Bear Ugly day occurs and I recap it on the next day's Morning Call you will see the difference. Our experienced subscribers who have seen a true Bear Ugly day know exactly what I am talking about.

Our Headline Call for Tuesday was for the market to stage a small rally which we expected would sell off IF that rally occurred first. We got basically the reversal with the selloff occurring first and the rally off the lows showing up later in the day.

The market action Tuesday also was NOT subject to the rules of the "Buy Pivot becomes Sell resistance" TCF Trade Setup at 989.00 either for reversing short. These TCF trade setups occur when the market blows through the --4.25 stop/pivot (which prices did) and then stages a relatively quick reflex rally off those lows back to the Buy pivot price (-1.00 pt.). On Tuesday the market went FLAT for a little over 3 hours before rising up and hitting the 988.00 price again. That is not the price movement of a reflex bounce. The whole idea of that particular trade setup as expressed in the Trading Handbook is that the market is going to push 10 points lower off the original Buy Pivot Target after blowing out the --4.25 stop/pivot. The speed at which the prices take out the stop/pivot and then reflex bounce back to the original Buy pivot is very important.

You have to step outside of the mechanics of the trade rules and look at what you are trying to accomplish with the markets. In the case of the above described trade you are looking for that panic drop through the stop/pivot and the rather desperate attempt of the wrong sided buyers to push the market back to the important Buy pivot...only to see it shoved down their throat. You then get the follow through strength to the downside once those early bull dip buyers are cleaned out of the market. So you need that drama, and the speed of that play in the markets to accomplish the action needed to cause this TCF Trade setup to occur.

Anyway, for Tuesday with no true Bear Ugly market we would have wanted to Buy the BreakDown at the B/D or perhaps a little lower which did not occur. We also would NOT have wanted to sell the bounce 3 hours later to 988.00 especially in light of our Headline Call looking for a mild rally. So on balance there were no TCF trade setups for Tuesday.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call for today is going to be looking for the markets to stage an early rally and attempt to punch through the 1000 handle above. Our expectation is that this area will get hit with selling that will send the markets lower for most of the trade session today.

If we are fortunate and we get this type of setup then we will be looking for the failure of the BreakOut Buy. Today has a strong possibility of a "Too Much Too Soon" type setup with a powerful Dow rally off the open being up +60 or more BUT with NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) holding back and only being up +10 or less. Even if NAZ is a little stronger watch for the rally to fizzle out if it happens very rapidly and runs too far.

We are going to be recommending shorting the Sell Pivot target today. This pivot is rather near the closing price and this is a concern. If they open the market up right on the Sell Pivot target then let's wait and see how the market handles the +4.25 stop/pivot above at 1005.50. If there is strong resistance there and the market comes back down to the Sell Pivot target then go ahead and take a chance getting short. Otherwise simply wait for the first hour to complete and there should be another TCF setup at the Hour One pivot that can be used to enter the trade action.

The market was hitting as much as +1400 TICKs going into the final hour on Tuesday and this is extreme. If we get more +800-1000 TICKs on an early "Too Much Too Soon" type rally up around the 1000-1006 zone then we can be confident of a top forming. Our expectation if this occurs is to see prices drop back down into the Value Area and move lower possibly even running back down to cover 75% of the VA range.

So let's keep an eye out for all of this to possibly occur on a HIGHER OPEN and an early push up.

If we open lower and run lower first then, as stated in the Headline Call, we would look for a consolidation in prices with a movement towards the center of the range later in the day.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Today is expected to be more volatile as the strong rise off the early lows yesterday caused some good confusing emotions in the market. We love this to occur because that confusion will create some nice volatile price movements usually. For S&P500 traders volatility is our lifeblood....it's how we make a living.

First we will be watching after the first hour to see if we are going to get a BreakOut Buy type situation or if we are expecting to Sell the BreakOut. Ideally we will get some early large rally with the NAZ holding back and can fade it accordingly.

Use the Trading Manual to review these setups and the necessary ingredients for going long or short when the BreakOut is the first Hour One pivot hit. We still want to be on the lookout for a true Bear Ugly day but I do not think it is in the cards for today. Instead the market is going to want to respond first to the upside based on this recovery move up off the lows Tuesday. After we get all those excessive Bears cleaned out of the way we should be able to head back south.

If the BreakDown is the first Hour One pivot hit today then it could be a bit confusing. Our expectation is for the lows of the first hour to get taken out to the downside AFTER an early rally. We just will have to wait until we get there and see what needs to be done.

Value Area: 982.50 - 991.50
Watch this area as referenced above after an early rally occurs. Pulling back to this 991.50 area will either stall and find support or we will cave in and head back towards Tuesday's lows. This is more the expected scenario for today on a HIGHER OPENING and early run up.

Buy Pivot Target: 986.00 - 987.00
No Trade at this pivot today.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,001.25 - 1,000.25
Let's sell this Sell Pivot target today on a flat to slightly lower opening. On a higher opening but NOT a large gap up opening on this price let's go ahead and sell here and use a 5 point stop.

If they gap up right on the 1000.00 handle or higher then just watch the stop at 1006.25 to see if the market holds it and if they pull back down to the Sell Pivot target try and go short. This type of trading around this Sell Pivot target is ONLY FOR EXPERIENCED TCF TRADERS and not for new traders or those who are not extremely familiar with our daily briefings. By waiting for the first hour to finish there most likely will be another trade opportunity with a TCF setup.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 994.70
We are closing right at this area. Be on the lookout for prices to attempt to rise up above this and then fall back below the Pit Bull. This would be Bearish action and we would want to look to stay short if we are already on the sell side.

Pro Trader's Action
Good volatility should kick in today especially on a higher open and early run higher. I've given you the different scenarios that most likely will occur and all we need to do is watch the opening and the first 20 minutes or so of trading to get a further clue.

I sure appreciate all your kind and encouraging comments on our work here at 21st Century Futures. I am working round the clock to stay on top of the most cutting edge information to pass on to you so we can all get on the right side of the market. There is the Bull side of the market and the Bear side of the market but we at TCF only want to be on the right side of the market to make our 8-10 points off a proven TCF setup.

Good luck today in your trading and May the Market Force be with you. I'll see you in the action as always. Your trading friend, Mohan