Mohan 25/08/03
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Abraços e bjs,
Abraços e bjs,
Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
-
- Mensagens: 3414
- Registado: 4/11/2002 23:16
Mohan 25/08/03
Market to continue to drop further.
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, August 22, 2003:
Sell 1005.00/ Cover 995.00 +10 pts. (Sell Sell Pivot/ Top of Value Area and cover on 8 pts. Move below the BreakDown as predicted)
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend. Hope you had a pleasant few days off as the summer comes to a close.
Well, we got the smackdown in prices we were expecting the last few sessions as we consistently kept selling rallies waiting for the artificial rally to dissolve. We had CLEARLY (I don't know how much clearer I could have said it) stated in our Headline Call on Friday to watch for lower prices and to EXPECT to see prices move BELOW THE BREAKDOWN by 8-10 points IF that was the first pivot hit of the Hour One pivots.
The B/O High was put in on the open area at 1012.20 and the B/D low was 1002.75. We had said to look to sell the Sell Pivot Target but with the Gap up to just one point below where the 5 point stop would have been at 1013.25 we waited. However, we were very, very anxious to sell this early big rally with the Dow up almost 70 points but with the rest of the market looking weak. We had also been continuously calling for the market to Break Down and stating that these higher prices were artificially rigged to let the insiders who were selling stock get short at higher prices. So with this rare exception in mind we chose to go short at the area around the Sell Pivot Target and the top of the Value Area.
This is a classic example of what I call, "Thinking outside of the Box". I have been talking extensively on the Ask Mohan section about this idea lately. As traders of the S&P500 futures who use these daily Morning Call briefings, our goal is to LEARN HOW TO TRADE. We want to follow the ideas expressed in these briefings and the TCF Trading Handbook with the goal of synthesizing a whole outlook on "what needs to be done under all market conditions". That is the goal! Yes,to become adept to the point of knowing what to do most of the time under ALL market conditions.
Very often that will be simply standing aside in "position neutral" which is a REAL position in this game. It's the same as being long or short. As the author of these briefings there is only so much I can do in regards to assisting you in how to do this. I can give you crystal clear Headline Calls, show you the setups, describe them in great detail, predict their appearances for you and give you the tools to recognize them in real time. The rest is up to you to decide if you want to become a total pro trader and put the time, patience and energy into learning. The requirement for a REAL S&P500 trader is time, experience and most of all being witness to hundreds of "market faces" or market conditions under various circumstances, news and events.
In all honesty, the only other way to shortcut that is for me to trade an account for you. But then you don't become a trader yourself. It would be just me doing it for you while you went golfing or doing something else.
These Morning Call briefings are designed for serious traders (most of you are already experienced in trading) who want to crank their trading up a notch or 5. That is why I designed them and that is why I work so damn hard on delivering them to you with new ways of approaching the market each day.
So we shorted the move below the early gap up at the 1005-7.00 area, breathed deep and finally saw em break down as expected. It was a patient hold in the morning but later they started getting smacked down pretty hard as everyone started to sense things weren't so rosy. The S&P500 found support right exactly at our predicted 10 Day Moving Average Pit Bull area.
Right now, it appears to me that they have a ways further lower to go so here is the lowdown on that (pun not intended).
Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Call for today is for lower prices in a move that is going to be more on a longer term scale. We are intraday traders of course here on the Morning Call and we base our entire work on that. However, sometimes (like this current market situation) it is clear that the market wants to lose 30 handles or so from its current level and we feel it is necessary to trade with this in mind today. So overall we are going to be trading at least for today with the idea of this occuring.
Now, I am not saying they are going 30 S&P500 points (handles) lower today BUT we could get a continuation move lower that could do some damage to the upside. THE KEY IS ON THE OPENING TODAY. If the market moves HIGHER off the open on an ideally Higher Opening price above Friday's close then this should produce continued lower prices for the day. If they drop strongly on the open on a lower opening then the JURY IS OUT until the market can be analysed further. We expect that if there is an early drop on a lower opening that we could see prices push higher today and try to recover some lost ground from Friday. I am not expecting a strong bullish BreakOut but just a recovery off the early lows if that is what occurs first.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: There is potential today for a Bear Ugly type day for further continuation lower but I am rather expecting a HIGHER OPENING and early rally which would actually be MORE BEARISH for the market. Either way we will be ready for em but we got to watch out for this distinction on the open.
If the market opens higher and moves higher first today then let's be on the lookout for Selling the BreakOut. If the Dow is up over +60 after the first hour is complete but the NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) is holding back being up less than +10 then we want to be short on that rally. If TRIN and VIX appear bullish then look to add 2-4 points to the B/O to get short.
If they OPEN LOWER and run lower first then we are going to be looking to Buy the B/D. Just wait for that first hour to finish and take a look at how the prices are pushing. If they go and take out the lows but we are not in a Bear Ugly market situation, the opening and first early run was lower, and the prices dip into the lows first after the first hour is over then we gotta buy em for a bounce.
Value Area: 992.50 - 1,006.80
The Value Area was a great indicator for us on Friday as it is usually every day. Today we need to see how the price reaction to 992.50 takes hold. Because this is also the Pit Bull number for today we are going to get some clear signals for selling if they hold below this number. The challenge will be to see if we get the B/D below this area and if a rise back to this will become NEW RESISTANCE or remain as strong support. Overall I think they are headed towards the 963.00 level before the buying returns decisively.
Buy Pivot Target: 985.50 - 986.50
No trade at this pivot today. Let's watch the action if we get down here and see if this number will correlate with the B/D. If we get the B/D as the first Hour One pivot of the day and we can correlate it with buying along with this number then we can use this Buy Pivot at a gauge. With the -4.25 stop/pivot at 981.25 this tells us that support will come in at this number first. So compare this area with the B/D and it will assist us in our trade.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,005.75 - 1,004.75
Let's sell this Sell Pivot Target if we get a rally back up here today. Use a 5 point stop at 1010.75 and let er rip.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 993.00
We pulled back down to the Pit Bull and now we are going to be looking for this number to become new resistance if they can push strongly and decisively BELOW this area. The next level down is the Buy Pivot Target at the 986 area and then the support at the 981-2 area. If we get this much lower then we would find that 993.00 would be a new ceiling most likely for a trip down to the 963 area as mentioned above. The numbers on the way down are first support at 978-79, then 972-73, 966.00 and then the first goal lower at 963.00.
Pro Trader's Action
We are going to maintain the Bearish posture until it is proven that the selling is over. I am expecting that Friday has just gotten things started for a slow grind lower to the 963.00 area over the next few days. The first thing to watch for will be today's opening reaction as described above, lower prices below 993.00 finding a new resistance ceiling there, then the lower push. Otherwise holding above 993.00 (which is also the bottom of todays Value Area) will try and test the 1000.00 handle again and slightly above it. We will have our order in to Sell em at the Sell Pivot target.
Let's see if we can get the expected slow erosion and get on that side while they move downward towards the number goals shown above. Remember, we are going to be buying em at the BreakDown if they are not that bearish and open lower first.
Good luck today and all the best of success in your trading skill development, I'll see you in the action, Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, August 22, 2003:
Sell 1005.00/ Cover 995.00 +10 pts. (Sell Sell Pivot/ Top of Value Area and cover on 8 pts. Move below the BreakDown as predicted)
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend. Hope you had a pleasant few days off as the summer comes to a close.
Well, we got the smackdown in prices we were expecting the last few sessions as we consistently kept selling rallies waiting for the artificial rally to dissolve. We had CLEARLY (I don't know how much clearer I could have said it) stated in our Headline Call on Friday to watch for lower prices and to EXPECT to see prices move BELOW THE BREAKDOWN by 8-10 points IF that was the first pivot hit of the Hour One pivots.
The B/O High was put in on the open area at 1012.20 and the B/D low was 1002.75. We had said to look to sell the Sell Pivot Target but with the Gap up to just one point below where the 5 point stop would have been at 1013.25 we waited. However, we were very, very anxious to sell this early big rally with the Dow up almost 70 points but with the rest of the market looking weak. We had also been continuously calling for the market to Break Down and stating that these higher prices were artificially rigged to let the insiders who were selling stock get short at higher prices. So with this rare exception in mind we chose to go short at the area around the Sell Pivot Target and the top of the Value Area.
This is a classic example of what I call, "Thinking outside of the Box". I have been talking extensively on the Ask Mohan section about this idea lately. As traders of the S&P500 futures who use these daily Morning Call briefings, our goal is to LEARN HOW TO TRADE. We want to follow the ideas expressed in these briefings and the TCF Trading Handbook with the goal of synthesizing a whole outlook on "what needs to be done under all market conditions". That is the goal! Yes,to become adept to the point of knowing what to do most of the time under ALL market conditions.
Very often that will be simply standing aside in "position neutral" which is a REAL position in this game. It's the same as being long or short. As the author of these briefings there is only so much I can do in regards to assisting you in how to do this. I can give you crystal clear Headline Calls, show you the setups, describe them in great detail, predict their appearances for you and give you the tools to recognize them in real time. The rest is up to you to decide if you want to become a total pro trader and put the time, patience and energy into learning. The requirement for a REAL S&P500 trader is time, experience and most of all being witness to hundreds of "market faces" or market conditions under various circumstances, news and events.
In all honesty, the only other way to shortcut that is for me to trade an account for you. But then you don't become a trader yourself. It would be just me doing it for you while you went golfing or doing something else.
These Morning Call briefings are designed for serious traders (most of you are already experienced in trading) who want to crank their trading up a notch or 5. That is why I designed them and that is why I work so damn hard on delivering them to you with new ways of approaching the market each day.
So we shorted the move below the early gap up at the 1005-7.00 area, breathed deep and finally saw em break down as expected. It was a patient hold in the morning but later they started getting smacked down pretty hard as everyone started to sense things weren't so rosy. The S&P500 found support right exactly at our predicted 10 Day Moving Average Pit Bull area.
Right now, it appears to me that they have a ways further lower to go so here is the lowdown on that (pun not intended).
Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Call for today is for lower prices in a move that is going to be more on a longer term scale. We are intraday traders of course here on the Morning Call and we base our entire work on that. However, sometimes (like this current market situation) it is clear that the market wants to lose 30 handles or so from its current level and we feel it is necessary to trade with this in mind today. So overall we are going to be trading at least for today with the idea of this occuring.
Now, I am not saying they are going 30 S&P500 points (handles) lower today BUT we could get a continuation move lower that could do some damage to the upside. THE KEY IS ON THE OPENING TODAY. If the market moves HIGHER off the open on an ideally Higher Opening price above Friday's close then this should produce continued lower prices for the day. If they drop strongly on the open on a lower opening then the JURY IS OUT until the market can be analysed further. We expect that if there is an early drop on a lower opening that we could see prices push higher today and try to recover some lost ground from Friday. I am not expecting a strong bullish BreakOut but just a recovery off the early lows if that is what occurs first.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: There is potential today for a Bear Ugly type day for further continuation lower but I am rather expecting a HIGHER OPENING and early rally which would actually be MORE BEARISH for the market. Either way we will be ready for em but we got to watch out for this distinction on the open.
If the market opens higher and moves higher first today then let's be on the lookout for Selling the BreakOut. If the Dow is up over +60 after the first hour is complete but the NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) is holding back being up less than +10 then we want to be short on that rally. If TRIN and VIX appear bullish then look to add 2-4 points to the B/O to get short.
If they OPEN LOWER and run lower first then we are going to be looking to Buy the B/D. Just wait for that first hour to finish and take a look at how the prices are pushing. If they go and take out the lows but we are not in a Bear Ugly market situation, the opening and first early run was lower, and the prices dip into the lows first after the first hour is over then we gotta buy em for a bounce.
Value Area: 992.50 - 1,006.80
The Value Area was a great indicator for us on Friday as it is usually every day. Today we need to see how the price reaction to 992.50 takes hold. Because this is also the Pit Bull number for today we are going to get some clear signals for selling if they hold below this number. The challenge will be to see if we get the B/D below this area and if a rise back to this will become NEW RESISTANCE or remain as strong support. Overall I think they are headed towards the 963.00 level before the buying returns decisively.
Buy Pivot Target: 985.50 - 986.50
No trade at this pivot today. Let's watch the action if we get down here and see if this number will correlate with the B/D. If we get the B/D as the first Hour One pivot of the day and we can correlate it with buying along with this number then we can use this Buy Pivot at a gauge. With the -4.25 stop/pivot at 981.25 this tells us that support will come in at this number first. So compare this area with the B/D and it will assist us in our trade.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,005.75 - 1,004.75
Let's sell this Sell Pivot Target if we get a rally back up here today. Use a 5 point stop at 1010.75 and let er rip.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 993.00
We pulled back down to the Pit Bull and now we are going to be looking for this number to become new resistance if they can push strongly and decisively BELOW this area. The next level down is the Buy Pivot Target at the 986 area and then the support at the 981-2 area. If we get this much lower then we would find that 993.00 would be a new ceiling most likely for a trip down to the 963 area as mentioned above. The numbers on the way down are first support at 978-79, then 972-73, 966.00 and then the first goal lower at 963.00.
Pro Trader's Action
We are going to maintain the Bearish posture until it is proven that the selling is over. I am expecting that Friday has just gotten things started for a slow grind lower to the 963.00 area over the next few days. The first thing to watch for will be today's opening reaction as described above, lower prices below 993.00 finding a new resistance ceiling there, then the lower push. Otherwise holding above 993.00 (which is also the bottom of todays Value Area) will try and test the 1000.00 handle again and slightly above it. We will have our order in to Sell em at the Sell Pivot target.
Let's see if we can get the expected slow erosion and get on that side while they move downward towards the number goals shown above. Remember, we are going to be buying em at the BreakDown if they are not that bearish and open lower first.
Good luck today and all the best of success in your trading skill development, I'll see you in the action, Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
-
- Mensagens: 3414
- Registado: 4/11/2002 23:16
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