Mohan 19/08/03
Enviado: 20/8/2003 23:57Continue to sell rallies. Market expected to pullback off of early highs.
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, August 15, 2003:
Sell 997.75-999.75/ Cover for -2 pt. loss or less. (Sell B/O +2-4 pts.)
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.
On our Headline Call for Monday we were expecting a sell off from a higher opening and early run up in prices. The market opened higher and ran up with a mega bullish High Five and never pulled back off the early move up so our call did not pan out.
It was a very odd day in fact as we had seen the High Five become very strong but with the Dow up over +60 at the time of the BreakOut this would have disqualified a B/O Buy trade. I say odd because with the mega bullish High 5 I would have expected the short we put on to get stopped out on a larger scale move up.
Because of the bullish High Five we attempted a short 2-4 points higher above the B/O high which essentially went nowhere. So on both sides there was little action as the prices stalled in a 4-5 point range after the B/O occured with a total sleepy range of 8.30 pts.
The last 8 trading sessions have been plagued by extreme low ranges and that is why there are no TCF trade setups occuring with any juice to them recently. The daily range and associated volatility is the lifeblood of the S&P500 traders. No range means no strong trades to get involved in. Not much we or anyone can do about that. We just have to wait for the trading action to heat up.
So far for the month of August overall the TCF Trade setups are doing good with almost 40 accumulated points which would represent an up to 65% return or higher on invested margin. This is based on using 3000$ margin per Emini S&P500 contract. Some firms allow minimum margin as low as 1000$ to trade so this represents an even more substantial return. That's what I love about futures trading. When you get really good at following a proven system like our TCF approach you can get incredible return potential on actual money invested. Due to the risk however it is important to really learn how to trade the S&P500 to achieve these kinds of rewards and that is what we specialize doing here on these briefings.
If you are new to reading our daily Morning Call be sure to spend a few minutes reading our testimonials from floor traders, hedge fund managers, pro traders, and new traders on our Home page. Our subscription rate is the lowest in the industry at about 1$ a day for all the information we provide to assist you in getting on the right side of the market.
Today's Call & Briefing:
For today we are going to continue to look for lower prices off of any early rallies. The market may hold up one more day here but we are looking for a pullback anytime depending of course on how the traders react. If we find that the bears keep jumping all over the rallies then we will expect prices to keep moving up. This is the phenomena of fast speed, intra day trading with the S&P500. The more traders that pile on one side of the market the more force is created for the market to MOVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION and clean those traders positions out. The fact that this DID NOT OCCUR on Monday with all the chance in the world for it with the Mega bullish High Five tells me that we still have a good crack at some downside action today.
Like yesterday, we are going to hit the rallies for selling the BreakOut if that is the first Hour One pivot hit and be on the lookout for a Bear Ugly day with some bad news and a strong gap lower off the opening. Our TCF Market Force indicators are looking for a larger scale drop to occur but as you should be aware we are never stuck on any one side of the market. In fact, our Market Force indicators change almost daily to allow us to "turn on a dime" if we need to.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: As mentioned above let's be on the lookout once again today for the possibility of a Bear Ugly trading day. This is described clearly in the Trading Handbook in great detail. Basically, we are looking for a Bear Ugly day to manifest when the market gaps lower on the open (usually by 5 handles or more or close to this) but mainly that there is some strong negative news associated with the drop lower. Once you see what a TRUE Bear Ugly day is you will understand what we are talking about. They are rare but when you see one you must first think ...Get Ready to Sell! I originally came up with the name because when you see a true Bear Ugly day you say to yourself, "Wow, this could get Ugly". Lately however, we have been discussing the occurance of "sneak down Bear Ugly" type days. This is where the market appears very weak but not totally Ugly. They just erode the prices all day as the High Five gradually become Bear Ugly later in the day. Don't concern over not being able to distinquish between the two as there usually is a TCF Trade setup that assists us in getting short. Just be on the lookout for this possibility today.
I also want to apply the same idea we did yesterday for Selling the Sell Pivot target. I will describe that below in that section.
There is ample concern for a selloff as the market was not only unable to rally inspite of a mega bullish High Five but also we saw +1000 TICKs banging away at the highs all day. We are currently in a contracted pattern but let's just stay the course and keep looking to hit rallys.
Value Area: 986.40 - 989.80
There was a problem getting the Data we needed today for this number so the VA shown may not be correct. We appologize for this and should have it corrected on tomorrows Morning Call.
Buy Pivot Target: 993.75 - 994.75
Watch this area to see if we trade through the -4.25 stop/pivot at 989.50. If so combined with a Bearish High Five we could get a reflex rally back to this pivot which would then activate a short sell at this price (-1.00 for early entry). Watch for this type of trade to occur off of this pivot today. If we get the expected sell off then we could run as low as the big 980.00 support area where we have the Pit Bull sitting today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,002.00 - 1,001.00
No direct trade at this target today but watch for a similar setup as yesterday. We would look for the prices to move up towards the 1006.25 (the +4.25 stop/pivot area) and then pull back down to this Sell Pivot AFTER THE FIRST HOUR IS OVER. This would still consitute a Sell at this pivot but we are just taking the extra precaution to see how the prices react to the stop/pivot at 1006.25 first. If they hit this number and fall right back off of it near the open then that may be it for the highs of the day. We would just be looking at that point for another TCF Trade Setup to gain entry on the short side.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 980.00
As mentioned above, here is strong support but if our scenario pans out for lower prices we should visit this pretty quickly. If we do get in a Bear Ugly situation then look to hold short through this number as they run em lower still.
Pro Trader's Action
I am sticking with the Bearish side today again as more evidence sprung up with the rather weak ranges yesterday coupled with the mega bullish High Five. As mentioned we had TICKs banging up against +1000 during the day and this is a sign of a top coming in. Because we have been stuck in a particular type of LSS pattern we are expecting that when it lifts the downside should take precedence.
The setups I am stressing today are geared towards selling rallies but as you know if our TCF trade setups occur on the bullish side we are just as willing to take them. Due to the market getting stretched out now and a little tired we are expecting the push lower. Insider selling has doubled each week for the last 2 weeks in a row as discussed yesterday so that is also being considered. Was today rigged up so everyone could get their stock sold from the inside? That will remain to be seen.
Good luck with your trading today and all the best of success. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, August 15, 2003:
Sell 997.75-999.75/ Cover for -2 pt. loss or less. (Sell B/O +2-4 pts.)
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.
On our Headline Call for Monday we were expecting a sell off from a higher opening and early run up in prices. The market opened higher and ran up with a mega bullish High Five and never pulled back off the early move up so our call did not pan out.
It was a very odd day in fact as we had seen the High Five become very strong but with the Dow up over +60 at the time of the BreakOut this would have disqualified a B/O Buy trade. I say odd because with the mega bullish High 5 I would have expected the short we put on to get stopped out on a larger scale move up.
Because of the bullish High Five we attempted a short 2-4 points higher above the B/O high which essentially went nowhere. So on both sides there was little action as the prices stalled in a 4-5 point range after the B/O occured with a total sleepy range of 8.30 pts.
The last 8 trading sessions have been plagued by extreme low ranges and that is why there are no TCF trade setups occuring with any juice to them recently. The daily range and associated volatility is the lifeblood of the S&P500 traders. No range means no strong trades to get involved in. Not much we or anyone can do about that. We just have to wait for the trading action to heat up.
So far for the month of August overall the TCF Trade setups are doing good with almost 40 accumulated points which would represent an up to 65% return or higher on invested margin. This is based on using 3000$ margin per Emini S&P500 contract. Some firms allow minimum margin as low as 1000$ to trade so this represents an even more substantial return. That's what I love about futures trading. When you get really good at following a proven system like our TCF approach you can get incredible return potential on actual money invested. Due to the risk however it is important to really learn how to trade the S&P500 to achieve these kinds of rewards and that is what we specialize doing here on these briefings.
If you are new to reading our daily Morning Call be sure to spend a few minutes reading our testimonials from floor traders, hedge fund managers, pro traders, and new traders on our Home page. Our subscription rate is the lowest in the industry at about 1$ a day for all the information we provide to assist you in getting on the right side of the market.
Today's Call & Briefing:
For today we are going to continue to look for lower prices off of any early rallies. The market may hold up one more day here but we are looking for a pullback anytime depending of course on how the traders react. If we find that the bears keep jumping all over the rallies then we will expect prices to keep moving up. This is the phenomena of fast speed, intra day trading with the S&P500. The more traders that pile on one side of the market the more force is created for the market to MOVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION and clean those traders positions out. The fact that this DID NOT OCCUR on Monday with all the chance in the world for it with the Mega bullish High Five tells me that we still have a good crack at some downside action today.
Like yesterday, we are going to hit the rallies for selling the BreakOut if that is the first Hour One pivot hit and be on the lookout for a Bear Ugly day with some bad news and a strong gap lower off the opening. Our TCF Market Force indicators are looking for a larger scale drop to occur but as you should be aware we are never stuck on any one side of the market. In fact, our Market Force indicators change almost daily to allow us to "turn on a dime" if we need to.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: As mentioned above let's be on the lookout once again today for the possibility of a Bear Ugly trading day. This is described clearly in the Trading Handbook in great detail. Basically, we are looking for a Bear Ugly day to manifest when the market gaps lower on the open (usually by 5 handles or more or close to this) but mainly that there is some strong negative news associated with the drop lower. Once you see what a TRUE Bear Ugly day is you will understand what we are talking about. They are rare but when you see one you must first think ...Get Ready to Sell! I originally came up with the name because when you see a true Bear Ugly day you say to yourself, "Wow, this could get Ugly". Lately however, we have been discussing the occurance of "sneak down Bear Ugly" type days. This is where the market appears very weak but not totally Ugly. They just erode the prices all day as the High Five gradually become Bear Ugly later in the day. Don't concern over not being able to distinquish between the two as there usually is a TCF Trade setup that assists us in getting short. Just be on the lookout for this possibility today.
I also want to apply the same idea we did yesterday for Selling the Sell Pivot target. I will describe that below in that section.
There is ample concern for a selloff as the market was not only unable to rally inspite of a mega bullish High Five but also we saw +1000 TICKs banging away at the highs all day. We are currently in a contracted pattern but let's just stay the course and keep looking to hit rallys.
Value Area: 986.40 - 989.80
There was a problem getting the Data we needed today for this number so the VA shown may not be correct. We appologize for this and should have it corrected on tomorrows Morning Call.
Buy Pivot Target: 993.75 - 994.75
Watch this area to see if we trade through the -4.25 stop/pivot at 989.50. If so combined with a Bearish High Five we could get a reflex rally back to this pivot which would then activate a short sell at this price (-1.00 for early entry). Watch for this type of trade to occur off of this pivot today. If we get the expected sell off then we could run as low as the big 980.00 support area where we have the Pit Bull sitting today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,002.00 - 1,001.00
No direct trade at this target today but watch for a similar setup as yesterday. We would look for the prices to move up towards the 1006.25 (the +4.25 stop/pivot area) and then pull back down to this Sell Pivot AFTER THE FIRST HOUR IS OVER. This would still consitute a Sell at this pivot but we are just taking the extra precaution to see how the prices react to the stop/pivot at 1006.25 first. If they hit this number and fall right back off of it near the open then that may be it for the highs of the day. We would just be looking at that point for another TCF Trade Setup to gain entry on the short side.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 980.00
As mentioned above, here is strong support but if our scenario pans out for lower prices we should visit this pretty quickly. If we do get in a Bear Ugly situation then look to hold short through this number as they run em lower still.
Pro Trader's Action
I am sticking with the Bearish side today again as more evidence sprung up with the rather weak ranges yesterday coupled with the mega bullish High Five. As mentioned we had TICKs banging up against +1000 during the day and this is a sign of a top coming in. Because we have been stuck in a particular type of LSS pattern we are expecting that when it lifts the downside should take precedence.
The setups I am stressing today are geared towards selling rallies but as you know if our TCF trade setups occur on the bullish side we are just as willing to take them. Due to the market getting stretched out now and a little tired we are expecting the push lower. Insider selling has doubled each week for the last 2 weeks in a row as discussed yesterday so that is also being considered. Was today rigged up so everyone could get their stock sold from the inside? That will remain to be seen.
Good luck with your trading today and all the best of success. Mohan