CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

ja estou como o incognitus -a bolha nunca acabou.

Pata, na semana passada, os números do "Investor`s Intelligence" mostraram 52% de touros e 19% de ursos.
Em relação ao Cramer, ele tem defendido - praticamente 2 semanas depois do final da Guerra - que o pessimismo continuava muito elevado e que há muitas acções que estão subvalorizadas. Tem defendido que os 10 mil pontos do Dow colocarão o mercado num preço que ele considera mais justo nesta altura. Diz que a continuação desse movimento de alta ou o retorno às quedas está dependente de como vai a economia evoluir, não estando ele seguro ainda do que se irá passar nessa matéria.

Beijinhos,
Ulisses

que numeros de sentimento queres os do investors???

quando o assunto sao subidas temos duzias de maos quentes .creio que este tambem fala de quedas de vez em quando.ha analistas que nunca emitiram uma recomendaçao de venda ,por isso desde março ate o meu cao quando ladra acerta no rumo dos mercados(tem a mania de ladrar virado para cima).

Bem, então para o cramer isto é o bull ?

Ulisses, outra coisa, tens os números do "sentiment"?

A bolha foi reduzida ao "ciclo económico", já reparei isso em muitos outros comentários.

É por toda a gente acreditar que a queda foi devida ao ciclo económico, é que a possível recuperação (tech) passa a ser razão para subida desenfreada das acções tech também.

A história foi re-escrita e a bolha desapareceu.

Cramer continua a defender os 10 mil pontos como o alvo para o Dow este ano. Nos últimos meses, tem andado com a "mão quente".

"Retail Reports Just Keep Adding to the Bullish Case"

By James J. Cramer
08/19/2003 09:05 AM EDT

"Lowe's reports profits up 28% (followed by a solid report from Home Depot). Wal-Mart sees sales better than expected.

So does Staples. So does Federated. Even lowly Toys R Us and Limited see a pick-up, as does Gap Stores.


The bears stay bears, though. The negativists ignore the rally in this group. They dismiss it as a one-off rally, no doubt because of the tax rebates or the end of the refi boom.

But I think this is the real deal. And it might help to remember that this was exactly the course of action we saw in 1991. Back then we had an initial rally in every stock, but retail really soared. Then we backed and filled with the banks leading the way. Then we had retail surge again as people felt more confident that better times really were ahead.

That's where we are right now: Confidence that things are going to get better. Sure, we could lose the refi business, but that, by its nature, must be lost when things get better. Refis are simply the bright side of an ugly picture -- lower rates because no small and medium businesses are taking down loans to grow. They are the sunny side of the no-loan-demand-from-any-other-part-of-the-economy picture.

That's changing now. Take this giant jump in Lowe's profits. Do you think that's just a sign of a blip up in spending? Or is that a sign that construction and remodeling are picking up? Is it a sign that small businesses are feeling better? Is it a sign that we could be near a turn in hiring?

I think that if you are betting that it is a one-off thing, you are going to have to come in at higher levels when the rest of the economic cycle plays out. That's why I reiterate that we can see Dow 10,000 this year. We can easily put on another 600 points if things do improve and interest rates don't shoot up to 5% overnight.

Why not more than that? I think that could be a stretch. Let's get there first. Then we can examine whether there's enough earnings power in 2004 to justify a higher target. "

(in www.realmoney.com)