David Nichols de ontem dia 7.. alguém tem? tks (EOM)
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re
Bon Vivant... é simples... ontem mesmo a Paa e eu deixámos uma descrição aqui:
http://www.caldeiraodebolsa.com/forum/v ... hp?t=14557
na newsletter as figuras vêm Àparte ou isso vem num doc?
Se ´vêm individualizadas.. é seguir o protocolo do link acima... se estão dentro dum doc ou pdf diz.
Cump.
http://www.caldeiraodebolsa.com/forum/v ... hp?t=14557
na newsletter as figuras vêm Àparte ou isso vem num doc?
Se ´vêm individualizadas.. é seguir o protocolo do link acima... se estão dentro dum doc ou pdf diz.
Cump.
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Infelizmente não sei como colocar esses anexos..
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- Mensagens: 197
- Registado: 10/11/2002 23:04
- Localização: Alentejo
Eis o de hoje
Not Much Acceleration
by David Nichols
Surprisingly -- as it was a rally day -- I think yesterday's market action was pretty bearish.
The fact is the market just didn't get a lot of upside work done when it had the chance to really soar. The VIX has popped significantly over the past sessions as the market has sold off, building up a fair amount of "sentiment fuel" in the tank (see Adam's comments below). Yet when the throttle was hit on this try at an uptrend, the market has so far only managed a sputtering advance.
Back in the March to May rally, the market was a Porsche Turbo when the throttle got hit like this. Yesterday it was more like a big lumbering SUV, getting really bad gas mileage, dragging a big cargo of increasingly frustrated bulls back up towards their desired upside breakout.
On the chart below, you can see how the market got bad mileage out of the VIX spike and subsequent retreat. Those two red candles on the VIX coincide with an "advance phase" of sentiment for the market. When the VIX is coming down off a spike, this is theoretically the time when the market has a great window to really get some upside work down. This is when the bearish bets are getting worked off, and theoretically being proven wrong. Granted, the VIX is still in the process of coming down -- so we're still in a short-term advance phase as far as the momentum of sentiment -- but it's already extended. I expected more punch.
Yet price hasn't manage to do much. The SPX has just come back up to the underneath of the breakdown on the S&P 500. It's also potentially important that a nascent downtrend has started on the daily fractal dimension chart. Keep in mind that this is the very definition of a weak, unestablished trend, but nevertheless I'm pointing it out because a little more downside -- and a move down through 55 on this unique indicator -- and then we could be talking about something more serious. But the truth is, with the daily fractal dimension in this high range, there isn't much of a trend, and it doesn't take much to reverse any incipient trend either.
Honestly, I was thinking there was a great chance that a dip back down to SPX 965 could end up being quite bullish for the markets. If the market bounced off that support (which it has) yet the VIX stayed high (indicating increasing fear of a breakdown), then there would be a great opportunity to go back and challenge the highs, or maybe even push them out a little higher.
But we haven't seen that. The VIX has plunged back down under 22, and the market's only grinded back up to 974. We've seen that same old wave of complacency sweep over the markets, just as we did during all those similar "pullbacks" during the bear market. This exact set-up led directly to much bigger declines in those instances.
So we're actually ripe here for a scary bear-market-type flush-out of too many bullish bets. When the short-term cycles into a decline phase in sentiment -- which would be the next time the VIX spikes from here - then we should see some more pronounced selling that slices through support.
Sentiment Dashboard
by Adam Oliensis
SENTIMENT TANK: Drained 8 points to 15% full of negative sentiment.
SHORT-TERM: Moved into an advance phase as the hourly decline phase had exhausted itself.
MID-TERM: Progressed 5 points in its decline phase to 58%. However confidence regressed to a neutral 0.
LONG-TERM: Regressed from the prior day by 2 points to 8% on the decline side with confidence also regressing to neutral at 0.
BOTTOM LINE: On an intermediate-term basis the tank held in the mid 20s as the SPX held the 960 area as support. This action is consistent with a snapback toward resistance at SPX 982-990. On a short-term basis, we saw the tank drain 8% into the lowest "heptile" while the SPX rose a mere 0.73%. That's lousy mileage. At that rate a whole tank of sentiment fuel would get you less than 9% upside...but we have less than 1/7 of a tank left. In this context the overhead resistance band, concentrated under 990 but with additional important levels at 1000, 1006, and 1015, will be extremely difficult to break.
by David Nichols
Surprisingly -- as it was a rally day -- I think yesterday's market action was pretty bearish.
The fact is the market just didn't get a lot of upside work done when it had the chance to really soar. The VIX has popped significantly over the past sessions as the market has sold off, building up a fair amount of "sentiment fuel" in the tank (see Adam's comments below). Yet when the throttle was hit on this try at an uptrend, the market has so far only managed a sputtering advance.
Back in the March to May rally, the market was a Porsche Turbo when the throttle got hit like this. Yesterday it was more like a big lumbering SUV, getting really bad gas mileage, dragging a big cargo of increasingly frustrated bulls back up towards their desired upside breakout.
On the chart below, you can see how the market got bad mileage out of the VIX spike and subsequent retreat. Those two red candles on the VIX coincide with an "advance phase" of sentiment for the market. When the VIX is coming down off a spike, this is theoretically the time when the market has a great window to really get some upside work down. This is when the bearish bets are getting worked off, and theoretically being proven wrong. Granted, the VIX is still in the process of coming down -- so we're still in a short-term advance phase as far as the momentum of sentiment -- but it's already extended. I expected more punch.
Yet price hasn't manage to do much. The SPX has just come back up to the underneath of the breakdown on the S&P 500. It's also potentially important that a nascent downtrend has started on the daily fractal dimension chart. Keep in mind that this is the very definition of a weak, unestablished trend, but nevertheless I'm pointing it out because a little more downside -- and a move down through 55 on this unique indicator -- and then we could be talking about something more serious. But the truth is, with the daily fractal dimension in this high range, there isn't much of a trend, and it doesn't take much to reverse any incipient trend either.
Honestly, I was thinking there was a great chance that a dip back down to SPX 965 could end up being quite bullish for the markets. If the market bounced off that support (which it has) yet the VIX stayed high (indicating increasing fear of a breakdown), then there would be a great opportunity to go back and challenge the highs, or maybe even push them out a little higher.
But we haven't seen that. The VIX has plunged back down under 22, and the market's only grinded back up to 974. We've seen that same old wave of complacency sweep over the markets, just as we did during all those similar "pullbacks" during the bear market. This exact set-up led directly to much bigger declines in those instances.
So we're actually ripe here for a scary bear-market-type flush-out of too many bullish bets. When the short-term cycles into a decline phase in sentiment -- which would be the next time the VIX spikes from here - then we should see some more pronounced selling that slices through support.
Sentiment Dashboard
by Adam Oliensis
SENTIMENT TANK: Drained 8 points to 15% full of negative sentiment.
SHORT-TERM: Moved into an advance phase as the hourly decline phase had exhausted itself.
MID-TERM: Progressed 5 points in its decline phase to 58%. However confidence regressed to a neutral 0.
LONG-TERM: Regressed from the prior day by 2 points to 8% on the decline side with confidence also regressing to neutral at 0.
BOTTOM LINE: On an intermediate-term basis the tank held in the mid 20s as the SPX held the 960 area as support. This action is consistent with a snapback toward resistance at SPX 982-990. On a short-term basis, we saw the tank drain 8% into the lowest "heptile" while the SPX rose a mere 0.73%. That's lousy mileage. At that rate a whole tank of sentiment fuel would get you less than 9% upside...but we have less than 1/7 of a tank left. In this context the overhead resistance band, concentrated under 990 but with additional important levels at 1000, 1006, and 1015, will be extremely difficult to break.
- Mensagens: 197
- Registado: 10/11/2002 23:04
- Localização: Alentejo
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