Ao minuto: Praças europeias respiram de alívio, indiferentes a possível violação de cessar-fogo

[alex01]

Peço desculpa, a mensagem anterior foi minha, esqueci-me de fazer o login.

[Visitante]

Para ter "sacado" os 6 pontos, deve ter entrado curto nos 980 e fechado nos 974, no entanto não percebo como seria possível, para nós pobres leitores, com os buy/sel pivot determinados no SETUP entrar nestes valores.

De qualquer forma a estratégia não correu como o esperado, uma vez que o objectivo, pelo que eu percebi, era entrar longo no buy pivot (968,5 - 969,50), sacar os 8/10 pontos e ir para casa descansar.

De acordo com o site do Mohan, deve se dar +/- 4,25 stop no pivot, num mercado onde todos os pontos são preciosos não acham uma margem muito grande.

O S&P500 é um mercado fascinante, sinto-me um carapau a nadar no meio dos tubarões.

[Smile]

Eheheheh! não, ele só ABRE naquela janela de tempo e fecha posições com target de 6 a 10 pontos.

[Pata-Hari]

LOL, que cena mais complexa! então fecha as posições todas a hora pré-determinada?

[Smile]

Sim é verdade, mas ele já deve ter aberto e fechado as posições com ganhos de 6 pontos.

Isto porque ele não abre posições nem na 1ª hora nem após as 19h locais, 14h nos states...

[Pata-Hari]

bem estamos então quase no suposto ponto de entrada dele. Onde estaria o stop agora...? 4.5 abaixo do ponto de entrada?

[Smile]

É verdade, tens razão alex01 é a somar e não subtair... Em relação aos Calls dele também por vezes tenho alguma dificuldade.

Mas hoje aconteceu um padrão que eu nunca tinha reparado antes destes Calls do Mohan que é a tentativa de quebrar o B/D por 2 ou 3 vezes sem conseguir, tornando-o um forte suporte.

Acontecendo o inverso na tentativa de romper o B/O sem conseguir tornando-o numa forte resistência..

[Smile]

Em relação à aplicação da LJCarregosa, o que eu tenho é um grafico Stock Indices depois vou a Instrumento, depois Index Futures e está lá os E-mini S&P 500 continous ou de Setembro tanto faz e lá no cabeçalho diz Real-Time data.

Os 4.25 são os pontos de stop que ele coloca em cada posição e servem também para tirar ao extremo mais oposto ao valor do futuro (neste caso o extremo inferior do intervalo de Buy Pivot(968.50)) para quando o movimento não atinge o Buy Pivot e ser um valor de referência para entrada longa...

Espero ter ajudado...

Estou à espera que os nossos amigos do FED pulem com isto por cima da resistência de 978.75 (Fut.) 980(Cash). Ontem foram só 10 pontos em 15, 20 min... para pular estes valores...

[alex01]

Smile,

Não percebi esta conta, Buy Pivot - 4.25 = 972.75, para dar 972.75 deve ser Buy Pivot + 4.25. Porque somas os 4.25 ? É por causa dos indicadores High Five.

Estou a seguir os call's do Mohan e devo confessar que tenho alguma dificuldade em entende-los. Ontem foi um dia que fiquei com muitas dúvidas, minha sorte é que estou a negociar com o Simulador da LJ Carregosa, que é muito porreiro. Parece-me que alguns "seguidores" também devem ter dificuldade, pelo menos a avaliar o que está escrito no "Recap of Monday's Action", que parece tudo claro como água.

[Pata-Hari]

Obrigado smile, és uma ajuda preciosa. Vou à procura do post onde sei que já me explicaste o que era o tick.

E fiquei totalmente à toa com a explicação do que ele dirá. Onde vais buscar os 4.25 a retirar do buy pivot?

Mais uma coisa, o gráfico do SP da lj que eu sigo é do cash e não dos futuros... acabei de confirmar com eles. Não percebo ao que te referes, devemos estar a olhar para coisas diferentes.

[Smile]

Os High Five são TRIN, VIX, TICK, COMPOSITE, MERRILL LYNCH (MER)....

Sigo os futuros na aplicação da LJCarregosa com gráfico em tempo real. E atenção que todos os valores que ele dá são dos futuros... e não cash.

Já agora em relação à sessão de hoje, acho que o que ele vai dizer é que comprou no Buy Pivot - 4.25 = 972.75. Este é um setup que ele descreve com promenor nas últimos Calls...

Esta sessão parece tirada a fotocópia da que aconteceu ontem... o primeiro esticão para cima entre as 17 e 17 e 30. Vamos ver se é isso que vai acontecer...

[Pata-Hari]

e smile, segues os futuros onde? no cash não esteve assim táo próximo do sel pivot, certo?

[Incognitus]

Foi o que o smile disse.

MER = ticker da Merrill Lynch.

[Pata-Hari]

Smile, ach que já perguntei isto há duas semanas, o que é o MER?

E quais eram os tais 5 indicadores? trin, vix e .....

Incognitus, explica lá então o que ele disse para ver se eu aprendo.

[Incognitus]

(o "não é bem isso..." era para a pata)

[Incognitus]

Não é bem isso que ele diz no artigo...

[Smile]

Quanto ao sentido, foi mais ou menos... O "too Much too Son" é um setup de abertura com um rally de 7 ou 8 pontos na primeira meia hora sem os High Five o confirmarem.

Tipo Trin>1 e Vix a cair pouco... Hoje nem houve um rally muito grande, mas quando sairam os resultados os futuros dispararam mas o vix pouco andou a MER estava negativa e trin estava a 1.46.

Em relação ao dia de hoje, quebrou o B/D mas sem ser em Bear Ugly e aguentou pouco tempo abaixo deste. Os futuros foram calhar a 1 ponto do pivot de compra de hoje que não esperava ser atingido...

Espero ter ajudado...

[Pata-Hari]

opáaaa, não é isso... o que ele faz é dar um valor, um range de valores para a compra, que está abaixo da abertura (para hoje era 968.5, 969.5). E segundo ele, pode ir lá, disparar para cima, ser "too much to soon" e catrapum, voltar para baixo. A minha pergunta vinha por ter tido a impressão que tinha ido ao valor de compra, e ter subido originalmente e depois voltar a cair - daí eu perguntar o como identificar se teria sido isso. Fiz sentido...?

[Incognitus]

too much too soon não foi de certeza, já que o mercado começou logo a cair.

[Pata-Hari]

ups, sorry, ainda não foi ao buy pivot.

[Pata-Hari]

Como é que se pode ver se foi um too much too soon...?

[Figas]

Trade Setup Summary for Monday, August 4, 2003:
Buy 965.75/ Sell 973.75-975.75 +8-10 pts. (Buy BreakDown)

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us on today's Morning Call.

Our Headline Call for Monday was for the market to push higher AFTER a lower opening and early drop to lower prices. We had also clearly spoken about the 967.00 area getting fulfilled on a lower goal washout and specifically talked about how lower early prices on Monday's are bullish.

Combining all these factors with the main fact that the market dropped substantially off the opening to 978.00 told us that we were going to be buying the BreakDown. The High Five were showing mega bearish readings but as we stressed many times here on these Morning Call briefings and in the manual that a Bear Ugly trading day is NOT just the High Five readings. A Bear Ugly day is an exact, specific market condition where the market will GAP LOWER and there will be negative news associated with the early gap lower move. The overall feeling of the market is very heavy. No such animal on Monday.

Our Market Call briefing was strongly and clearly focused on Buying the BreakDown if that was the first pivot hit of the Hour One pivots. That is exactly what occurred on Monday. With the B/D coming in at 965.75 if you were focused strongly at the end of the first hour you were able to nail this price right near the bottom of the day.

This occurred at the 10:31,32,33,34,35 and 10:36 est one minute candle/bars and you had 5 minutes to buy at this B/D. With a very short holding time and Zero pressure on the 6 point stop the market rallied nicely up to our target goal of 8-10 points where we took profits and stayed out for the day. When the market has run lower over 10 handles off the opening like this and especially on a Monday lower opening you don't want to wait for continued lower --2-4 points below the B/D. You want to grab those moves right at or below the B/D.

It is not always an easy trade to make going against a mega bearish looking tape but that is the plan and was clearly mapped out for you. Trust me...I know it can be challenging to learn this mindset. When this action was occurring during that small 5 minute window of time my trading partner and I were getting long buying the electric Cars and I recall saying to him, "No Guts No Glory" as we had both expressed nervous excitement about getting long.

From the emails I got today I can see that many of you got long also and that is great. Congratulations! For those of you who are new to our TCF trading methods or are trying to learn plan on just being patient and willing to watch the action. After some time you will develop faith in the setups and your confidence will increase. Each trader is different. I have had brand new traders jump right in the first week and start making these type of trades and I have had long time pros study our work for MONTHS before putting on their first trade.

A QUICK NOTE ON THE DAYS FIRST SUCCESSFUL TRADE: We have a basic rule that when we get a nice 8-10 point successful trade for the day we like to STOP TRADING. The best thing is to ALLOW yourself to feel the psychological success of making these trades rather than jumping back into another one and risking a loss. Now each day in trading the S&P500 is a little different and when the ranges open up more there are days where you really DO want to take other trades that are obvious TCF setups. Usually though, (and especially if you are new to the TCF briefings) when you catch one of the setups and make 8-10 points ...please stop trading for the day. Hey, we'll do it again tomorrow.

Today's Call & Briefing:
We are expecting the market to continue the rally today which started from the lower drop on Monday which hit our target lower goal area of 967.00. The prices dropped almost 20 handles BELOW the Pit Bull and then ran right back up stopping just under it on Monday. This is one bullish sign that we are feeling strong about. In our manual we describe it as --10/+10 and these usually will have a carry over effect to the next days trade.

Today is a TRIN Buy on open trading gauge signal: What do I mean by a TRIN gauge? Let me explain. There is a specific setup with the TRIN that is from a well researched mechanical system that has about a 65% accuracy factor. The real trick to the way I use it for trading is to find out when it is setting up and then monitor it for an ABERRATION or CONFIRMATION.

Today: The TRIN trade will set up on the open with a Buy signal. NOW THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL TCF SETUP THAT YOU BUY ON THE OPEN. It is only a GAUGE that we will be using to see how the market reacts to the opening price. If the market opens flat to lower and the prices push up above the opening and hold above the opening then this is a positive sign for the bullish mood to hold.

If the prices push lower and hold lower BELOW THE OPEN then this is a sign that the market may put this gauge into aberration and move lower. We have our TCF Market Force indicators and this is an additional gauge that shows up once or twice a month to give us additional information on market bias. So we shall be keeping an eye on this gauge in relation to the opening price.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY:There is a very strong possibility of a BreakOut Buy occurring today off the Hour One high pivot. Kindly review the TCF Trading Handbook for what to look for with this setup. Remember, our definition of the Dow being FLAT is up +50 or LESS. Look for a stronger NAZ to be leading the markets.

If we get an early blow up rally that takes off right off the open with the Dow up +80 or more and the NAZ holding back being up only +10 or less then we are going to want to look for a pullback off that early rally. I rather suspect we will get more of a strong, BreakOut buy type situation today. Although we are not expecting the BreakDown to be the first Hour One pivot hit today we have to say that if it is then it could be associated with a Bear Ugly day. Of course now that Mr. Market has heard me say that....here comes the B/D . LOL

Most likely if we get a lower open and push lower first we would expect the Buy pivot to be the spot to go long. More on this in the Buy Pivot Target section.

Value Area: 967.70 - 978.70
The VA covered the main 10 points of trading range on Monday that we got our B/D long off of. With the prices closing above Value this means we most likely will see the value area range of prices pushed up nicely today. Let's look for a further move up as discussed in the Headline Call and see if we can get the rally to stick. The key to seeing if this rally IS going to hold all day will be whether we have an early, large move on the Dow to FADE as discussed above.

Buy Pivot Target: 968.50 - 969.50
Let's go ahead and Buy this buy pivot target today on a lower open and early move lower. Use a 5 point stop below the lower number and watch the High 5 for supportive readings. We are not expecting to see this pivot get hit early today. If this pivot does not get hit early but we see prices trade down here AFTER an early rally then we will not want to trade at this pivot.

Sell Pivot Target: 988.50 - 987.50
No trade at this Sell Pivot today. Let's watch for the +4.25 stop/pivot at 992.75 to have significance in terms of either holding back the early rally or possibly being near the BreakOut move up. As mentioned in the Headline Call, there is enough juice in the Market Force indicators to get a good rally going today if the High 5 and everything back up the move.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 986.10
We will be carefully monitoring this 986-987 price zone to see if we can pop it and move higher. It is right in this same area as the Sell Pivot Target and as such will provide a "double wall" of resistance to higher prices. If we are going higher (as I suspect) now that we have fulfilled that lower 967 price we could ROCKET THROUGH this zone today with a big up day. The first sign of such a big move will be to see the STRENGTH AND SPEED in which the prices blow through this 986-989 area. The stronger and faster the move through this zone the more bullish the move will be. If they come up against this wall and just waffle around it that is a sign of a weaker market.

Pro Trader's Action
There is an underlying bullish current in the market for today based on our Market Force indicators and the other things we have discussed here. I try and use this section to briefly recap the Morning Call and for any messages.

Let's be focused on a BreakOut buy possibly occurring today UNLESS we get a huge rally off the open first. If an early big rally occurs first then we will attempt to FADE that rally at the appropriate TCF setup.

I want to express my thanks and great appreciation for all your kind and thoughtful emails and questions. We have been having some fun and delving into the TCF setup details over at the "Ask Mohan" section where I try and give some more elaborate explanations of your most important questions. Please be sure to join us there. That is the SECOND HALF our your subscription value.

If you are a new visiting trader and you find our Morning Call vital to your trading then I highly encourage you to JOIN US TODAY WITH A SUBSCRIPTION. Get my Trading Handbook now and learn our TCF setups to make 8-10 handles in the S&P500 very regularly. This is a no B.S manual that is packed with dynamite and will show you the exact setups that we talk about here each day and reveiw.

Our cost to join for a subscription is a ridiculously low price of less than a DOLLAR A DAY for all this valuable trading information. That's my commitment to you. I do not believe in gouging traders who are already faced with so many expenses. Besides, I figure when you get good at this you may want to contribute to your "Send Mohan to Maui" fund. LOL. Actually, send yourself there first and I'll meet you and we'll go sailing.

Be sure to read the TESTIMONIALS on our home page from the many trading friends from around the globe who have had great success using our methods. Go to www.21stcenturyfutures.com and study the other valuable tools on the site too.

So let's see if we can nail 8-10 points on the bullish side today or if we get a "Too Much Too Soon" type rally early then we will be looking to fade it.

Good luck and all the best of success in your trading, Mohan

[Figas]

August 5, 2003