If You Saw These Trades, I Hope You Took Them
Enviado: 28/7/2003 18:42TradingMarkets.com
If You Saw These Trades, I Hope You Took Them
Monday July 28, 9:48 am ET
By Kevin Haggerty
What Friday's Action Tells You
The confluence from 977 to 972 was a good lower boundary all of last week and was the springboard level for the rally on Friday from an intraday low of 977.42. There were 5 trips below 980 last week, but the net net was that the SPX (CBOE^SPXNews) opened the week at 993 and closed at 998.68, +1.7% on the day and just 0.5% for the week. There was good travel range between the upper and lower boundaries of the trading range the major indices are now in, so there were some decent trading opportunities.
In spite of the rally on Friday from 977.42 to 998.68 to a top-of-the-range close, the NYSE volume was only 1.29 billion shares, the volume ratio was 76, and breadth +956. The other major indices all had good percentage moves on Friday, with the Dow, led by the cyclicals, +1.9%, and also, the cyclicals are getting extended after the last three days up. Then you had the Nasdaq (NasdaqSC^IXICNews), which was +1.7%, and the QQQs (AMEXQQQNews) +1.9%. In the major sectors, it was the BKX (Philadelphia^BKXNews), +2.0%, SMH (AMEXSMHNews), +1.9% and the cyclicals, +1.9% as represented by the CYC (AMEX^CYCNews).
In the semis, Intel (NasdaqNMINTCNews) traded to a new weekly low of 23.73, taking out last Monday's 23.95 low, where the earnings hype, +8.1% move all started. The 20-day EMA was 23.56 and the buyers took Intel up to a 24.93 intraday high, closing at 24.91. There was a good 1,2,3 higher bottom entry above 23.99 if you had waited for a definitive pattern and above 23.95 was also a reversal of the previous low last Monday.
The common thread with both price and volume increase for the SPX was in the basic industry stocks, led by Cummins engine, which gapped and ended +19% on an earnings report. In the chemicals, Eastman Chemical (NYSEEMNNews) was +6.5% and Rohm and Haas (NYSEROHNews), +5.5%, Phelps Dodge (NYSEPDNews) was +3.8%, Alcoa (NYSEAANews) +3.4%, Deere (NYSEDENews) +4.2%, and Navistar (NYSENAVNews), from our focus list, was +7.4%.
The XLB, which is the basic industry SPDR, traded 171% more than its average volume, as opposed to the XLF, which is the financial SPDR, +2.4%, on just 44% of its average volume, and the XLK, the technology SPDR, +2.2% on 45% of its average volume. All of the major sectors finished green, but only the BKX, SMH, and CYC outperformed the SPX.
For Active Traders
Friday's trades in the SPX using the SPY and/or E-minis were right out of the seminar videos. I have included a chart today outlining the three pattern trades as learned in the seminar. The first trade was an SPY RST long entry above 98.25 after a 98.04 SPY low, which was equivalent to a 977.42 SPX low. The lines above and below the swing points are the defined RST pattern that is only taught at the seminar. The 50-day EMA was below at 97.80. The second trade was a 14-bar Slim Jim which broke out above 99.05 and all of its 8, 20, 60, and 240 EMAs, and never looked back The third trade was a flag retracement to the 20-period EMA on the 5-minute chart but it was also a retracement to the 20-day EMA of 99.33, which it had crossed on a breakout of the Slim Jim.
What was the reason for the SPY rally from the 98.04 intraday low to the 100.26 intraday high and 100.23 close? The answer is: Who cares? Because the trade setups were defined patterns that you have -- or should learn -- and the first trade was from the lower end of the trading range we have been working against all week. The Slim Jim and flag were just continuation trades in the day's trend. The three setups were probably the best defined combination of patterns the entire week.
From your e-mails, I see many of you caught the initial RST long setup. Good job. For today, if the "game" can push price on the SPX for another try at the 1015 level, then the SPY gets extended on the 5-day, 5-minute chart from 100.75 to 101.40, which are the +2.0 and +3.0 bands for the 5 days. Friday's rally started at the -2.0 band.
For the SMH, it's the 33.40 to 34.00 zone, but they only closed at 32.34 and must get past the 32.95 high, so look for any intraday short setups from 32.50 to 33.00 if the market gets soft today. The Dow gets extended short-term from 9325 to 9375 and closed at 9285.
Have a good trading day.
Kevin Haggerty
If You Saw These Trades, I Hope You Took Them
Monday July 28, 9:48 am ET
By Kevin Haggerty
What Friday's Action Tells You
The confluence from 977 to 972 was a good lower boundary all of last week and was the springboard level for the rally on Friday from an intraday low of 977.42. There were 5 trips below 980 last week, but the net net was that the SPX (CBOE^SPXNews) opened the week at 993 and closed at 998.68, +1.7% on the day and just 0.5% for the week. There was good travel range between the upper and lower boundaries of the trading range the major indices are now in, so there were some decent trading opportunities.
In spite of the rally on Friday from 977.42 to 998.68 to a top-of-the-range close, the NYSE volume was only 1.29 billion shares, the volume ratio was 76, and breadth +956. The other major indices all had good percentage moves on Friday, with the Dow, led by the cyclicals, +1.9%, and also, the cyclicals are getting extended after the last three days up. Then you had the Nasdaq (NasdaqSC^IXICNews), which was +1.7%, and the QQQs (AMEXQQQNews) +1.9%. In the major sectors, it was the BKX (Philadelphia^BKXNews), +2.0%, SMH (AMEXSMHNews), +1.9% and the cyclicals, +1.9% as represented by the CYC (AMEX^CYCNews).
In the semis, Intel (NasdaqNMINTCNews) traded to a new weekly low of 23.73, taking out last Monday's 23.95 low, where the earnings hype, +8.1% move all started. The 20-day EMA was 23.56 and the buyers took Intel up to a 24.93 intraday high, closing at 24.91. There was a good 1,2,3 higher bottom entry above 23.99 if you had waited for a definitive pattern and above 23.95 was also a reversal of the previous low last Monday.
The common thread with both price and volume increase for the SPX was in the basic industry stocks, led by Cummins engine, which gapped and ended +19% on an earnings report. In the chemicals, Eastman Chemical (NYSEEMNNews) was +6.5% and Rohm and Haas (NYSEROHNews), +5.5%, Phelps Dodge (NYSEPDNews) was +3.8%, Alcoa (NYSEAANews) +3.4%, Deere (NYSEDENews) +4.2%, and Navistar (NYSENAVNews), from our focus list, was +7.4%.
The XLB, which is the basic industry SPDR, traded 171% more than its average volume, as opposed to the XLF, which is the financial SPDR, +2.4%, on just 44% of its average volume, and the XLK, the technology SPDR, +2.2% on 45% of its average volume. All of the major sectors finished green, but only the BKX, SMH, and CYC outperformed the SPX.
For Active Traders
Friday's trades in the SPX using the SPY and/or E-minis were right out of the seminar videos. I have included a chart today outlining the three pattern trades as learned in the seminar. The first trade was an SPY RST long entry above 98.25 after a 98.04 SPY low, which was equivalent to a 977.42 SPX low. The lines above and below the swing points are the defined RST pattern that is only taught at the seminar. The 50-day EMA was below at 97.80. The second trade was a 14-bar Slim Jim which broke out above 99.05 and all of its 8, 20, 60, and 240 EMAs, and never looked back The third trade was a flag retracement to the 20-period EMA on the 5-minute chart but it was also a retracement to the 20-day EMA of 99.33, which it had crossed on a breakout of the Slim Jim.
What was the reason for the SPY rally from the 98.04 intraday low to the 100.26 intraday high and 100.23 close? The answer is: Who cares? Because the trade setups were defined patterns that you have -- or should learn -- and the first trade was from the lower end of the trading range we have been working against all week. The Slim Jim and flag were just continuation trades in the day's trend. The three setups were probably the best defined combination of patterns the entire week.
From your e-mails, I see many of you caught the initial RST long setup. Good job. For today, if the "game" can push price on the SPX for another try at the 1015 level, then the SPY gets extended on the 5-day, 5-minute chart from 100.75 to 101.40, which are the +2.0 and +3.0 bands for the 5 days. Friday's rally started at the -2.0 band.
For the SMH, it's the 33.40 to 34.00 zone, but they only closed at 32.34 and must get past the 32.95 high, so look for any intraday short setups from 32.50 to 33.00 if the market gets soft today. The Dow gets extended short-term from 9325 to 9375 and closed at 9285.
Have a good trading day.
Kevin Haggerty