CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Dow -63, Nasdaq -7, S&P -5.50:
As of: Jul 15 2003 1:25PM ET

All red now...represents quite a turnaround from when the Nasdaq futures were 14 points ahead of fair value before the open...the bond market is totally tanking now, with the 10-year note down 48/32 to yield 3.91%...the dollar is also substantially stronger...both reflect expectations of strengthening economy...higher rates will hurt the stock market over time...

Dow -44, Nasdaq +1, S&P -2.76:
As of: Jul 15 2003 12:55PM ET

Market takes a dive on what looks like a sell program...that implies selling in the futures which is bearish, of course, so the dip counts either way...there may be some nervousness ahead of the Intel report, but the market has shown consistent resilience over recent weeks...breadth is weak as decliners lead advancers even on the Nasdaq, which is still slightly in the black...

Dow -16, Nasdaq +6, S&P +0.93:
As of: Jul 15 2003 12:30PM ET

Expectations on Intel earnings are for the company to report earnings per share of $0.13 and revenue of $6.72 billion for the second quarter...that revenue figure compares with a weak number of $6.32 billion in the same quarter last year, and $6.75 billion in the first quarter of this year...INTC made $0.09 per share last year, and $0.13 in the first quarter...guidance for the third quarter will also be key...

Dow -12, Nasdaq +5, S&P +0.91:
As of: Jul 15 2003 12:00PM ET

Stocks opened higher on continued momentum from yesterday, but quickly faded...the early news was mixed...June Retail Sales rose 0.5% as ex-autos the series rose 0.7%, both stronger than expected...the NY Empire State Index at 22.6 also was stronger than expected, reflecting manufacturing growth in New York state...but the corporate news wasn't as good...Boeing (BA 33.28 -1.30) announced a $1.1 billion one-time charge, Altria (MO 39.59 -2.37) was lower on an adverse court ruling, while Wells Fargo (WFC 51.88 -1.15) and Fannie Mae (FNM 69.94 -1.44) reported earnings below expectations...the big upside news was that Merrill Lynch (MER 54.03 +2.62) had very strong earnings...Fed Chairman Greenspan gave generally upbeat comments about the economy, as Fed forecasts imply 3 1/2% or more GDP growth in the second half of this year and about 4% next year...he also said the Fed would ease again if necessary, and that inflation is tame...those comments didn't help stock though, and bonds tanked on the lack of deflation concern and the GDP forecasts...the next big event is the Intel earnings report and conference call after the close today...volume is moderate...

Dow -33, Nasdaq +3, S&P -0.92:
As of: Jul 15 2003 11:30AM ET

Market may be on Intel watch now...semiconductor giant to report after the close today...guidance on outlook could be critical in determining whether Nasdaq rally can continue...Forest Labs (FRX 49.01 -5.32) is second on the NYSE actives list as it presents cautious outlook while hitting earnings estimates for this quarter...Dow is being hurt by Boeing (BA 33.27 -1.21) on big charge and Altria (MO 39.43 -2.53) on court ruling...

Dow +9, Nasdaq +11, S&P +4.10:
As of: Jul 15 2003 11:00AM ET

Resilience...Greenspan's comments weren't really bearish for stocks...the Fed forecasts imply a pickup in GDP growth in the second half to 3 1/2% or more and 3 3/4% to 4 3/4% next year, along with inflation near 1% to 1 1/2% through next year...all sprinkled with a dose of caution, of course...fairly bullish for stocks, overall, so it is not surprising the indices have come back now...

Dow -12, Nasdaq +6, S&P +2.33:
As of: Jul 15 2003 10:30AM ET

Stocks have moved lower and bonds have tanked on Greenspan's testimony...bonds didn't like his comments that deflation risks are "remote" and strong forecasts for GDP growth that imply 3 1/2% or more in the second half...he also expressed some concerns about the recovery, which shouldn't be that surprising...he also said the Fed will ease further if necessary...his comments lean more towards economic growth than in the past...

Dow -8, Nasdaq +6, S&P +1.48:
As of: Jul 15 2003 10:00AM ET

Greenspan's testimony due out as this is posted...indices fail to hold early gains, just as S&P failed to hold near top of 52-week high yesterday...Intel report after the close today highly anticipated...

Dow +27, Nasdaq +9, S&P +3.86:
As of: Jul 15 2003 9:45AM ET
Solid up open but not as strong as the futures suggested, and quickly off the highs...Merrill Lynch (MER 53.50 +2.09) on blowout earnings numbers, Fannie Mae (FNM 69.80 -1.58) as they missed by a penny...Boeing (BA 33.93 -0.65) on $1.1 billion charge and Altria (MO 39.59 -2.37) on yet another court ruling hurting the Dow on relative basis...