Petróleo sob pressão após ataque dos EUA ao Irão

[Figas]

Trade Setup Summary for Monday, July 14, 2003:
Sell 1014.00/ Cover Up to +12-18 pts. (Sell B/O and cover into crash or 12 points)

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today. A special greeting to all of our new subscribers and trial visitors who have just joined us.

21st Century Futures is dedicated to bringing you the most cutting edge trading methods and strategies for nailing the main 8-10 point move on the Emini S&P500 each day. We also provide you with an exact, crystal clear, unhedged and extremely accurate Headline Call each day so you can know where the market is most likely to go. Not a bad deal for a buck a day.

Our Headline Call on Monday was looking for the market to push higher in the early session and then pull back strongly later in the session showing a weaker day overall. This is exactly what occurred and we had a HUGE day today in trading profits with our recommended trade to short the BreakOut hitting just after the first hour had ended.

The market opened gap up a whopping 11 handles which blew right through the Sell Pivot target. When this occurs the trading around the Sell Pivot is cancelled and we focus on the Hour One pivots only. The BreakOut Hour One pivot was 1014.00 and at 10:31est as shown on the chart above, we hit the B/O and prices pulled back from there. This was our exact Short entry right up a few ticks from the high based on selling the B/O with the Dow above +50 points. This action was based on our Headline Call and our TCF trade setup recommendation to Sell the B/O if that was the first Hour One pivot hit and WAS NOT setting up for a BreakOut Buy.

After holding the trade for a while we saw the S&P500 prices pull back about 5 points and then return to near the entry point. With the Bullish High Five we moved our stop to a maximum 2 point loss in accordance with our rules on stops. Today the VIX was one of the prime bearish clues in the midst of an overall bullish High Five tape. With patience and a very tight stop we held the trade short until the strange order imbalance hit the markets later in the session sending the Emini S&P500 crashing down to 990.00 on the print.

The exchange later cancelled or "busted" all the trades below the 996.00 price level forcing traders to accept whatever price was executed in the crash. These types of extremely fast moves are part of the inherent modern risk of trading these E indexed contracts now a days. Fortunately our subscribers were on the right side of that action and were able to walk away with excellent profits as the market crumbled.

S&P500 prices recovered after the shock drop back to the 1002-4 area giving our subscribers a chance to comfortably take profits even after the drop.

SPECIAL MESSAGE: OUR SUBSCRIBERS MADE UP TO 18 S&P500 POINTS TODAY! DON'T TRADE OUR MORNING CALL NEWSLETTER WITHOUT READING OUR HANDBOOK! You gotta be nuts to trade off our briefings and not have read our S&P500 Handbook with all the exact, precision trading methods in it. This would have given you the edge to have nailed up to 18 points today on the S&P500 (4500$ per contract) or the Emini (900$ per contract). That's almost a 5 year subscription to TCF IN JUST ONE DAY. One of the goals of my Morning Call briefings is to get you to stop flushing your money down the toilet without proper, professional knowledge of the S&P500 market. Get a clue and learn the professional secrets of trading the S&P500 today by joining us with a subscription. CLICK ON THE SUBSCRIBE LINK AT THE TOP OF THIS PAGE. Did you know our daily Morning Call is only 1$ a day? That's less than a cup of coffee or a spot of tea for all this precision information.

Today's Call & Briefing:
We have to be a little bit more careful than usual today as we are expecting some strong volatility not only because of the way the TCF Market Force indicators are lined up but also because of Greenspan's testimony today. I am tempted to not have a Headline Call today or trade recommendations but our Market Force indicators are clearly calling for lower prices AND ESPECIALLY ON A HIGHER OPENING. Why?

Today is an LSS Sell Day: Our experienced subscribers know how to handle these type of days as we have discussed them many times.

On an LSS Sell day we are going to be looking for prices to open ABOVE THE PREVIOUS DAYS CLOSE at 1002.60. If this occurs and we get a further run up this will "feed" the LSS Sell day Market Force and we should see gradual, lower prices. There may be some hesitation today with the testimony at the House Committee on Finance by Greenspan otherwise we are expecting prices to erode lower. Let's see if we get a full on LSS Sell day which will exhibit certain characteristics. One of those characteristics is that upon a higher opening and early move up the lowest prices should come into the final hour of closing.

So if we are able to get short on a clear TCF setup we should be looking for a long patient hold short. If we see a clearly contrasting bullish High Five then we will need to consider other strategies. If the prices jump LOWER immediately off the open then we should see support come in, consolidation, and then even a gradual rise in prices. All the TCF Market Force indicators are bearish today and here is how we would look to trade the action today.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: First we want to watch the opening as described above in relation to the LSS Sell day action. Our first goal would be on the look out for prices to move higher and then begin to sell off. It is unlikely we are going to get a Bear Ugly day right off the opening because with Greenspan's testimony the news media will keep a lid on anything to upset that. So what we may get if lower prices are to show up will be what I call a "Sneak down Bear Ugly day". This is where the B/D get 's hit later in the day with slow erosion. If the early BreakDown Hour One low is deep enough in price then there could be support just 6 handles under that.

I think it is better to leave the B/D alone if that is the first Hour One pivot hit. If the BreakOut is hit first there is a good chance that we would want to BUY THE BreakOut pivot but we would need to see the criteria to buy that which we discussed in detail on yesterday's Morning Call briefing.

With the way the market is set up today and the Market Force indicators it may be better to totally stand aside from trading unless there is a crystal clear TCF trade setup. We will definitely be looking to sell the Sell Pivot target today but leaving the Buy Pivot target alone.

Value Area: 1,007.40 - 1,014.00
We are closing below the Value Area and this is a bearish sign. Ideally, we will get a move up off a higher opening that either fails to get into the VA or falls out of the center of the VA back below this VA zone. This would confirm our bearish scenario for lower prices today.

Buy Pivot Target: 997.00 - 998.00
No trade at this Buy Pivot today. However, watch the --4.25 (992.75) stop/pivot for support or a move below this price. If we get a move below the 992.75 and a reflex rally back to 997.00 depending on the circumstances with the High Five it could be a short reversal.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,011.50 - 1,010.50
Let's go ahead and sell this 1010.50-1011.50 Sell Pivot Target and place a stop at 1016.50 (5 pts.) which we would look to hold back the buying. If for any reason we get a gap up to 1010.50 area on the open then this trade is cancelled.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 993.00
We have the 993.00 Pit Bull coming in today at the same price as the --4.25 stop/pivot on the Buy Pivot Target which will provide double support. This will also be extra bearish for the market if these prices don't hold up. We are at a CROSS OVER ALERT as we closed within 10 handles of this number. So let's prepare to possibly see the trade blow through this number and ideally we will be short as they cross over. Next level lower is 887, then 882-83, then the first goal lower mentioned yesterday of 977.00.

Pro Trader's Action
Today is going to be tricky and I want to be perfectly clear about that. If there is not a clear TCF Trade setup then let's just let the day go, wait for the Greenspan testimony to filter into the markets and we can trade em clearer tomorrow.

Just be aware that a higher open and early move up should sell off strongly today based on the LSS Sell day. Sometimes getting in on the trade is the tricky part and if that is not executed properly you can have a loss even though your strategy was correct. There are thousands of clearer days ahead so don't be concerned if nothing appears to be setting up decisively for today. No big deal.

Each day we will be focusing our microscope on the primary 8-10 point move for the day and catching most of them. All we have to do is show up for work and learn the correct setups. Use caution today BUT if you see a good short at the Sell Pivot target let's get in.

All the best of sucess today, Mohan

[Figas]

July 15, 2003
Market ready to sell off. CAUTION: Greenspan testimony today with the House Finance Committee. Market may create market whipsaw action.