Petróleo sob pressão após ataque dos EUA ao Irão

[Figas]

Trade Setup Summary for Friday, July 11, 2003:
Sell 999.50-1001.50/ Cover for +6-8 pts. (Sell B/O +2-4 pts.)

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend. Hope it was a relaxing one for you.

Our Headline Call for Friday was looking for a mild upside move which would stall, sell off and consolidate in the middle of the range (neutral) to lower.

This is exactly what occurred with the close pushing just a few points slightly above the neutral range position which would have been around 995-96. Overall we got the early push up with the Dow getting overcooked to the upside somewhat calling for us to short the BreakOut plus 2-4 points due to the bullish High Five readings. We generally look to sell the B/O's when the Dow is over +60-70 or more (Dow +86 at the time of Friday's B/O) especially since this was indicated in our Headline Call which was looking for weakness in the later part of the session.

What occurred was that the market opened flat, rallied up as we had suggested to create the Hour One high of 997.50 and then RIGHT AFTER the first hour was complete hit the B/O at 10:31est. Due to the bullish High Five at the time of the B/O our rule is to wait and add 2-4 points to that B/O to create a higher sell zone and get a better deal on the price. At the time of the B/O the NAZ was +18, TRIN .80, VIX --37 and MER +.52) definitely bullish readings.

Why wouldn't we have bought the BreakOut? If you read our manual carefully on the bullish BreakOut method you will see that our main criteria for buying a bullish B/O is for the DOW TO BE FLAT (our definition of flat is being up +40-50 or less). Without this element we are usually looking to go short. It is also important (but not always required) to look to go long or short when our Headline Call is agreeing with the play. Sometimes a BreakOut Buy or even a Bear Ugly trading day will come out of "Left Field" and so we, as astute traders, are always prepared for these things.

Today's Call & Briefing:
On our Headline Call for today we are going to be looking for a similar type market as Friday. If the market OPENS HIGHER then we may get a sell off earlier then expected. If they open flat to lower then we would expect the overall Headline Call suggested direction to pan out.

Monday's are the most bullish day of the week and in the current type mixed bullish/bearish trend we are in we should see a stronger early session with overall weakness later in the day. We had a weaker than normal volume rally on Friday and this is also part of the reason for this call for later weakness. We did see some slight recovery off the lows around 992.00 (top of the VA) on Friday where traders would have looked to cover their shorts from 998.00 or higher but it was a low range day so it may not have been very significant. We will know more today.

The overall expectation is for a bearish week so far but this could change. We do not make short term projections usually beyond a day or two but this is what is showing up after the late Sunday night research. If this proves to be correct our first major goal lower will be 977.00. On the way down there we have the Pit Bull 10 Day Moving Average at 990-991.00 area and a second drop through this could be more fatal than the one on Thursday's action last week. Below the 990.00 area we have the 982-83 zone and then the above mentioned goal of 977.00.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY:Today is a little bit of a "wild card" in making an exact prediction on which of the TCF Trade setups will occur. I want to say that we need to be very vigilant for the possibility of a BULLISH BREAKOUT today. This would occur with a High Five setup very similar to Friday's at the time of the B/O BUT with the Dow up less than 40-50 points. These are often difficult trades to take unless you are very familiar with them and have watched our Morning Call briefings for a while and seen them set up. So let's be on the lookout for this. Please re-read the section on this in the S&P500 Handbook if you are not quite up to speed on what to look for.

If the B/O is the first pivot hit and the Bullish BreakOut setup is NOT occurring then we need to look to Sell the B/O once again as we did on Friday and look for perhaps a stronger pullback this time that sticks.

If the first Hour One pivot to hit today is the BreakDown then we will be looking to Buy the BreakDown most likely. Depending on how the open shapes up we will be watching for this. If the B/D is hit first and the High Five are strong on the Bearish readings then look to subtract 2-4 points from the B/D low. I am not expecting this for today but we could see an early sell off. Ideally we will get a flat to slightly lower open, a run up and then a stronger pullback later in the session as outlined on the Headline Call.

Value Area: 993.90 - 998.50
Holding below 993.00 is going to keep things rather bearish. On a higher opening and early push up watch for a pullback into this VA zone at 998.50. If the prices move into the VA and hold there for 2-3 minutes then very often you will get a retrace of at least 75% of the VA range which would be a trip down to 994.00. It's not really such a big deal for today as the range on Friday was so tight that the VA numbers and the others are all in tight ranges too. We will not be trading the Buy or Sell Pivot target numbers today partially because of this.

Buy Pivot Target: 991.25 - 992.25
No trade at this target today. Let's watch for support here just above the Pit Bull with the --4.25 stop/pivot coming in at 987.00.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,001.75 - 1,000.75
No trade at this Sell Pivot today. Watch the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1006.00 for resistance and/or a reversal. Although this is not expected today please note our caution in the TCF Trade setups section.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 990.90
This zone is going to be real vital today as we need to see if we are going to drop down and take a second stab at moving below the Pit Bull this week. If so the 2nd crash through it should hold and run em lower to the 977.00 first goal area mentioned above pretty soon (but not necessarily today).

Pro Trader's Action
The plan for today is to watch the opening for a higher open and early run up FIRST. If that is the opening scenario then we should be getting a more powerful drop sooner than later. On a flat to lower opening the rally that follows we expect will HOLD UP LONGER but we would still expect a pullback into the later session as described in the Headline Call. Be prepared for a possible BREAK OUT BUY on a lower opening just in case with all the proper criteria for that move. We are not expecting a Bear Ugly type trading day to set up today so if the B/D is hit FIRST then we will be looking to buy that B/D action. Good luck and all the best of success today with your trading. Mohan

[Figas]

July 14, 2003

Market to push higher in the morning session today and then pull back later off the highs showing a weaker day overall.