Ao minuto: EUA atacam Irão. MNE iraniano diz que país "reserva todas as opções" para se defender

[nunofaustino]

Ulisses, a força do mercado foi evidente hoje... Abertura em Gap e subida continua...
Novos máximos relativos no Nasdaq e Dax e ficamos relativamente perto dos máximos no Dow e no S&P.

Para mim o facto de fazermos novos máximos relativos é um sinal de entrada (com stop loss 1-2% abaixo dos antigos máximos).

Imagino que o Misha ande um bocado em baixo... até porque, se conheço o Bill, com a sessão de hoje deve estar estar a cantar à porta do Misha

Um abraço
Nunofaustino

[Ulisses Pereira]

Neste artigo, Cramer tenta antever o que pode acontecer às 30 acções que constituem o Dow Jones. Há alguns meses atrás que o Cramer vai apontando como objectivo para o Dow os 9500 pontos. Depois de analisar acção a acção, ele conclui que os 10000 pontos devem ser um objectivo mais correcto.
Ulisses


"Reading Dow 10,000 From the Big 30"

By James J. Cramer
07/07/2003 03:36 PM EDT


"Second half, strong start. Can it continue? If we are following the road map of 1991, which you know I feel that we are (with the possible exception of it being 1998, which is even better in the short term but worse in the long term), then you have to think twice before you do any selling into this rally.

In fact, my projections for the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks from here, what is realistic to expect in front of earnings, make me think that 10,000 or more precisely -- get this -- 10,031, is doable. Here's how we get there:


1. AT&T (T:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): I think this stock could see $25 because of a better than expected couple of quarters coupled with strong dividend protection.

2. Alcoa (AA:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): I wouldn't be surprised if this stock rallied to $33 on consolidation and weak currency. Very inexpensive on 2004 earnings.

3. Altria (MO:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): Just expecting another four or five from this one after its huge run.

4. American Express (AXP:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): This stock looks like it could head to $50 on either earnings or a takeover from Citigroup (C:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis).

5. Boeing (BA:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): I'm only expecting 3 points here because it is discounting the airline improvement well ahead of time.

6. Caterpillar (CAT:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): A weak dollar plus strong construction markets and a turn in Asia could make the stock see $65.

7. Citigroup: A big dividend boost will take this stock to $50.

8. Coca-Cola (KO:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): Not bullish on this one but still think it could pick up 5 points.

9. Disney (DIS:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): Disappointing. This one will stay at $20.

10. DuPont (DD:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): A cycle turn plus raw costs will take this stock up to $45.

11. Eastman Kodak (EK:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): Digital success plus its dividend will take the stock back to $33.

12. ExxonMobil (XOM:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): This one will go down a dollar on lack of earnings power.


13. General Electric (GE:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): Up a dollar, no more, because the stock remains under pressure from a difficult earnings comeback.

14. General Motors (GM:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): The stock rallies to $40 on the safety of the dividend post-pension woes being fixed.


15. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): Sharetake from Dell (DELL:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) plus consolidation will take this stock to $26.

16. Home Depot (HD:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): Only a couple of points are left in this move. It will go to $35.

17. Honeywell (HON:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): Asbestos abatement plus a cycle turn equals $35 for this defense, auto and aero contractor.

18. IBM (IBM:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): This one will tack on 5 points on weak currency alone.

19. Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis): The dollar a share in earnings power it has will make people pay $25 for the stock.

20. International Paper (IP:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): The stock will trade to $40 on cost-cutting plus a weak dollar vs. the Swedes.

21. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): Stent worries are overblown. This one will go back to $60; it's a big weak-dollar play.

22. J.P. Morgan (JPM:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): This one will ends up boosting its dividend after a great bond market. I see it trading to $40.

23. McDonald's (MCD:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): The stock ahead of itself. It will retreat 2 points.

24. Merck (MRK:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): Lackluster performance, but the weak dollar will take it to $65.

25. Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis): A big dividend moves this stock to $30.

26. Procter & Gamble (PG:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): Steady earnings get this stock to $95.

27. SBC Communications (SBC:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): This one's not as bad as we thought, plus Cingular could buy somebody and do better giving us $28.

28. 3M (MMM:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): There's a big earnings surprise coming. This one trades to $140.

29. United Technologies (UTX:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): Defense, elevators and consistent earnings take this to $80.

30. Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis): A strong retail environment in the second half will move the stock to $60.

None of these price swings is revelatory. They all are "doable" based on next year's earnings. In fact, they are conservative when you consider what we are about to see from earnings. They add up to Dow 10,031. I will take Dow 10,000.

So should you. "

(in www.realmoney.com)