Rev Shark: "Entrenched Voices"
Enviado: 7/7/2003 20:03Com a sobriedade que o caracteriza, Rev Shark expõe muito claramente a grande questão actual do mercado.
Ulisses
Rev Shark
"Entrenched Voices"
7/07/03 01:51 PM ET
"One of the most interesting aspects of this market is that there are so many sophisticated market participants who have done very well over the last couple years who are absolutely, positively convinced that this move is nothing more than yet another bear market rally. Maybe it's gone a bit further than they thought it would, but they are convinced it is only a matter of time before the bulls are disappointed once again.
The folks who have done the best for nearly three years have been the biggest, most entrenched bears, and very few of those folks are prepared to change their thinking. The things that made them bearish, such as valuations and a struggling economy, are still out there. They view the current move as artificial and unsustainable once the excess liquidity that is driving it suddenly dries up.
To many skeptics, the stench of the bear is still thick in the air. They may not be short, but they are distrustful, cautious and determined not to be sucked into a bubble. Their mantra is "The market has not learned from the mistakes of the past and therefore is doomed to repeat them."
In many ways, these entrenched bears are the mirror image of the entrenched bulls we saw three years ago after the market hit a top and began to roll over. The bulls had been minting money and were loath to give up on the idea that a bear market may be upon us.
Are the entrenched bears marking the same mistake the entrenched bulls made three years ago? Are they failing to see a fundamental change that is affecting the essence of the market?
If the bears are wrong about this being just another bear market bounce, it isn't because they are wrong about valuation and the economy; it's because they have failed to appreciate the power of liquidity and low interest rates. Will a big pile of cash with nowhere to go but equities trump valuation worries? That is the core question of this market. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
Ulisses
Rev Shark
"Entrenched Voices"
7/07/03 01:51 PM ET
"One of the most interesting aspects of this market is that there are so many sophisticated market participants who have done very well over the last couple years who are absolutely, positively convinced that this move is nothing more than yet another bear market rally. Maybe it's gone a bit further than they thought it would, but they are convinced it is only a matter of time before the bulls are disappointed once again.
The folks who have done the best for nearly three years have been the biggest, most entrenched bears, and very few of those folks are prepared to change their thinking. The things that made them bearish, such as valuations and a struggling economy, are still out there. They view the current move as artificial and unsustainable once the excess liquidity that is driving it suddenly dries up.
To many skeptics, the stench of the bear is still thick in the air. They may not be short, but they are distrustful, cautious and determined not to be sucked into a bubble. Their mantra is "The market has not learned from the mistakes of the past and therefore is doomed to repeat them."
In many ways, these entrenched bears are the mirror image of the entrenched bulls we saw three years ago after the market hit a top and began to roll over. The bulls had been minting money and were loath to give up on the idea that a bear market may be upon us.
Are the entrenched bears marking the same mistake the entrenched bulls made three years ago? Are they failing to see a fundamental change that is affecting the essence of the market?
If the bears are wrong about this being just another bear market bounce, it isn't because they are wrong about valuation and the economy; it's because they have failed to appreciate the power of liquidity and low interest rates. Will a big pile of cash with nowhere to go but equities trump valuation worries? That is the core question of this market. "
(in www.realmoney.com)