Nichols /Mohan de hoje
Enviado: 2/7/2003 13:27Market to push higher in a "sneak up rally". Look to buy pullbacks at the TCF setups.
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, July 1, 2003:
No TCF Trade set ups occurred today. Too many mixed indicator signals.
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today for the Morning Call. A special welcome to our new visiting traders and subscribers from around the globe.
The key to excellent trading is becoming a disciplined trader. Let's read from the fabulous book, " The 21 Irrefutable Laws of Trading" by John Hayden. "How do you become a highly disciplined trader? The answer is by mastering your ego, creating faith, and gaining confidence. You must acknowledge how crucial discipline is for your ultimate success. Once you acknowledge it's importance, you need to be firmly in charge of your ego, have unshakable faith that the outcome you desire will be accomplished, and the confidence that your methodology will work. Then you start the process of changing or creating the necessary belief's that will empower you to become a highly disciplined trader."
Our Headline Call on Tuesday was to look for the market to pull back in the early session and that we would look for a later rally off those lower prices. This is exactly what occurred on Tuesday as the market gapped down around 5 handles off the open and broke down even lower. The Hour One pivots were created with the low coming in at 960.25 and the first hour high at 969.75. With the low coming in just after the first half hour the rest of the day was spent with the market gradually rising. We did not see any of the Hour One pivots get hit until later in the session just after 1:00est. During the early part of the session we saw the --4.25 stop/pivot on the Buy Pivot Target get taken out but there was no reflex rally back to the Buy Pivot in a timely fashion to reverse. When the market finally did rally back to the 968.75 Buy Pivot (which was just one handle under the BreakOut) there were many conflicting indicators that were occurring.
First, we had a bullish Headline Call looking for a rally off the early lows, we got a solid --8/+8 TCF setup with the market moving 8 handles lower off the open and then recovering back to the open at 968.50 which is also bullish. HOWEVER we had a mixed up High Five at that time which was Bearish/ Neutral. We also saw the TRIN trading at a radical 1.89 after being very overcooked bearish off the opening (trading above 3.00). Usually this is a bullish sign too but with the VIX up (bearish sign), the NAZ lower, and the Dow up almost +50 points it was a recipe for CONFUSION and trading should have been avoided.
Just remember, the key is DISCIPLINE and we don't "have to trade"... especially when the indicators are that mixed up. So technically NONE of the setups were really being validated in either direction. Add to this rather odd mix the fact that the BreakOut was occurring at 1:00 est which is later in the day and it is a STAND ASIDE SIGNAL. Our general rule is that we do not trade any of the TCF Trade Setups after 1:30-2:00 est. Now this rule is not written in stone but it is a general guideline idea that if it's getting too late in the afternoon then there is a stronger chance of the set up not being as effective. With the other mixed up action this only served to confirm the "stand aside" posture even further.
We saw prices move up into the Value Area and after getting this confirmation they took off to the upside which supported our Headline Call also. But overall, today was such an extreme mixed bag of conflicting indications that the best path was standing aside. A case could have been made for shorting the B/O or shorting the return to the Buy pivot target but there were other indicators giving clearly bullish signals along with our primary Headline Call which is made up of our 18 TCF proprietary indicators.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today we are going to be looking for a "sneak up type rally" similar to Tuesday's action with continued mixed indicators and an overall confusing looking tape. This is no big deal as this tends to happen during certain holiday periods when we are near the beginning of the month. Factor in the very recent interest rate reduction along with the end of the quarter "window dressing" of the large fund managers portfolios and you should not be surprised by this action.The key is to not make a big deal out of the confusion and just let it pass on by. An important aspect of really going PRO in the S&P500 futures trading is to BE ABLE TO RECOGNIZE THIS ACTION FOR WHAT IT IS and just let it be. The frustration and confusion increases when you find yourself fighting it and feeling you "have to have a position" or you "have to figure out the market and make a trade". Not necessary. There will be plenty of very clear days for catching the TCF Trade Setups like we have seen the past 4 sessions since starting this service at 21st Century Futures.
Right now I want to urge CAUTION for this week as volume is going to start drying up today. Tomorrow is a short day and we will be putting out an ABREVIATED MORNING CALL.
The next 3 months are historically a weak period for trading. As we speak large portfolio managers are starting to pack to visit their summer vacation homes and very little new buying will take place. It's mostly about maintaining their large portfolios on a steady course while they are vacationing.In spite of this we do have an upward target goal of 1002.00 on the S&P500 and there is even a shot it could get filled today or tomorrow. We do have some trading ideas for you for today but be very cautious that the exact TCF setups are occurring and don't be too anxious to trade if all the components are not falling into place.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: There is a good possibility that if our Headline Call is going to pan out that we will get another BreakOut Buy cooking today. As per the rules of the set up at the time of the B/O we would need to see the Dow flat (being up +50 or less) with the NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) moving ahead being up +12-15 or more. If along with this setup we get the TRIN under .80 and the VIX lower ideally -.50 or more then we could break out AGAIN with a bullish move.
If the BreakOut is the first Hour One pivot hit after the first hour has transpired and the above bullish B/O scenario IS NOT OCCURING then we can look to sell the B/O. Again, watch out specifically for today only for confusing or mixed High Five indicators that are not supporting the trade. The riggers like to play tricks with the markets especially during these holiday periods keeping the market very unappealing while they smoke em' up higher.
If we do get a lower opening and move lower then let's look to Buy the B/D of the first hour low if that is the first Hour One pivot hit. Just be sure we are not in the middle of a Bear Ugly situation with the markets down hard on some bad news and the High Five giving us Bear Ugly readings. We would want to short that B/D action if that was occurring but it is not expected today.
Value Area: 961.00 - 973.50
We are closing substantially above the Value Area on Tuesday which strengthens the bullish scenario at least for today. Watch to see that the prices will find support at the top of the VA on any pullbacks early today. Compare this number with the B/D and if we see trade occuring in this zone it could be a buy area if the correlation is good after the first hour is complete.
Buy Pivot Target: 967.00 - 968.00
No trade at this pivot today. This is near the center of the Value Area and should provide additional support if the top of the VA does not entirely hold up the selling.
Sell Pivot Target: 988.75 - 987.75
No trade at this pivot today. Because our Headline Call is looking for a "sneak up type rally" we could see prices push above this number in a slow, grinding fashion which can be really frustrating if you are trying to short it. Let's leave this pivot alone for today and observe the reaction to the +4.25 stop/pivot at 993.00.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 983.90
We are now on CROSSOVER ALERT with the Pit Bull. What this means is that we need to be very vigilant in observing if we are going to blow through the 10 Day MA to the upside or hit a brick wall when we approach it. If we are getting a strong CROSSOVER then often prices will leap across it to the upside and leave this pivot in the dust. So for today we are going to be watching carefully the reaction to this 984.00 price area for sure.
Pro Trader's Action
I use this section to recap what we tried to communicate on the Morning Call today. It is said that "repetition is the mother of all learning" and that is very true in the Pro Trader Action section.
The main message for today is to not get caught up in thinking you "have to trade". We have a lot of challenging elements in the market this week which I have described to you and as Pro Traders we just don't want to concern about it too much. Just be on guard for exact, precise TCF trading setups and if they are not confirming then get excited about having an extra long weekend. As mentioned we will have an abbreviated Morning Call on Thursday along with all the important numbers we publish for you everyday.
Let's see if the market gives us a chance to get long today so we can make our regular 8-10 point trade. All the best of luck and success, Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, July 1, 2003:
No TCF Trade set ups occurred today. Too many mixed indicator signals.
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today for the Morning Call. A special welcome to our new visiting traders and subscribers from around the globe.
The key to excellent trading is becoming a disciplined trader. Let's read from the fabulous book, " The 21 Irrefutable Laws of Trading" by John Hayden. "How do you become a highly disciplined trader? The answer is by mastering your ego, creating faith, and gaining confidence. You must acknowledge how crucial discipline is for your ultimate success. Once you acknowledge it's importance, you need to be firmly in charge of your ego, have unshakable faith that the outcome you desire will be accomplished, and the confidence that your methodology will work. Then you start the process of changing or creating the necessary belief's that will empower you to become a highly disciplined trader."
Our Headline Call on Tuesday was to look for the market to pull back in the early session and that we would look for a later rally off those lower prices. This is exactly what occurred on Tuesday as the market gapped down around 5 handles off the open and broke down even lower. The Hour One pivots were created with the low coming in at 960.25 and the first hour high at 969.75. With the low coming in just after the first half hour the rest of the day was spent with the market gradually rising. We did not see any of the Hour One pivots get hit until later in the session just after 1:00est. During the early part of the session we saw the --4.25 stop/pivot on the Buy Pivot Target get taken out but there was no reflex rally back to the Buy Pivot in a timely fashion to reverse. When the market finally did rally back to the 968.75 Buy Pivot (which was just one handle under the BreakOut) there were many conflicting indicators that were occurring.
First, we had a bullish Headline Call looking for a rally off the early lows, we got a solid --8/+8 TCF setup with the market moving 8 handles lower off the open and then recovering back to the open at 968.50 which is also bullish. HOWEVER we had a mixed up High Five at that time which was Bearish/ Neutral. We also saw the TRIN trading at a radical 1.89 after being very overcooked bearish off the opening (trading above 3.00). Usually this is a bullish sign too but with the VIX up (bearish sign), the NAZ lower, and the Dow up almost +50 points it was a recipe for CONFUSION and trading should have been avoided.
Just remember, the key is DISCIPLINE and we don't "have to trade"... especially when the indicators are that mixed up. So technically NONE of the setups were really being validated in either direction. Add to this rather odd mix the fact that the BreakOut was occurring at 1:00 est which is later in the day and it is a STAND ASIDE SIGNAL. Our general rule is that we do not trade any of the TCF Trade Setups after 1:30-2:00 est. Now this rule is not written in stone but it is a general guideline idea that if it's getting too late in the afternoon then there is a stronger chance of the set up not being as effective. With the other mixed up action this only served to confirm the "stand aside" posture even further.
We saw prices move up into the Value Area and after getting this confirmation they took off to the upside which supported our Headline Call also. But overall, today was such an extreme mixed bag of conflicting indications that the best path was standing aside. A case could have been made for shorting the B/O or shorting the return to the Buy pivot target but there were other indicators giving clearly bullish signals along with our primary Headline Call which is made up of our 18 TCF proprietary indicators.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today we are going to be looking for a "sneak up type rally" similar to Tuesday's action with continued mixed indicators and an overall confusing looking tape. This is no big deal as this tends to happen during certain holiday periods when we are near the beginning of the month. Factor in the very recent interest rate reduction along with the end of the quarter "window dressing" of the large fund managers portfolios and you should not be surprised by this action.The key is to not make a big deal out of the confusion and just let it pass on by. An important aspect of really going PRO in the S&P500 futures trading is to BE ABLE TO RECOGNIZE THIS ACTION FOR WHAT IT IS and just let it be. The frustration and confusion increases when you find yourself fighting it and feeling you "have to have a position" or you "have to figure out the market and make a trade". Not necessary. There will be plenty of very clear days for catching the TCF Trade Setups like we have seen the past 4 sessions since starting this service at 21st Century Futures.
Right now I want to urge CAUTION for this week as volume is going to start drying up today. Tomorrow is a short day and we will be putting out an ABREVIATED MORNING CALL.
The next 3 months are historically a weak period for trading. As we speak large portfolio managers are starting to pack to visit their summer vacation homes and very little new buying will take place. It's mostly about maintaining their large portfolios on a steady course while they are vacationing.In spite of this we do have an upward target goal of 1002.00 on the S&P500 and there is even a shot it could get filled today or tomorrow. We do have some trading ideas for you for today but be very cautious that the exact TCF setups are occurring and don't be too anxious to trade if all the components are not falling into place.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: There is a good possibility that if our Headline Call is going to pan out that we will get another BreakOut Buy cooking today. As per the rules of the set up at the time of the B/O we would need to see the Dow flat (being up +50 or less) with the NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) moving ahead being up +12-15 or more. If along with this setup we get the TRIN under .80 and the VIX lower ideally -.50 or more then we could break out AGAIN with a bullish move.
If the BreakOut is the first Hour One pivot hit after the first hour has transpired and the above bullish B/O scenario IS NOT OCCURING then we can look to sell the B/O. Again, watch out specifically for today only for confusing or mixed High Five indicators that are not supporting the trade. The riggers like to play tricks with the markets especially during these holiday periods keeping the market very unappealing while they smoke em' up higher.
If we do get a lower opening and move lower then let's look to Buy the B/D of the first hour low if that is the first Hour One pivot hit. Just be sure we are not in the middle of a Bear Ugly situation with the markets down hard on some bad news and the High Five giving us Bear Ugly readings. We would want to short that B/D action if that was occurring but it is not expected today.
Value Area: 961.00 - 973.50
We are closing substantially above the Value Area on Tuesday which strengthens the bullish scenario at least for today. Watch to see that the prices will find support at the top of the VA on any pullbacks early today. Compare this number with the B/D and if we see trade occuring in this zone it could be a buy area if the correlation is good after the first hour is complete.
Buy Pivot Target: 967.00 - 968.00
No trade at this pivot today. This is near the center of the Value Area and should provide additional support if the top of the VA does not entirely hold up the selling.
Sell Pivot Target: 988.75 - 987.75
No trade at this pivot today. Because our Headline Call is looking for a "sneak up type rally" we could see prices push above this number in a slow, grinding fashion which can be really frustrating if you are trying to short it. Let's leave this pivot alone for today and observe the reaction to the +4.25 stop/pivot at 993.00.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 983.90
We are now on CROSSOVER ALERT with the Pit Bull. What this means is that we need to be very vigilant in observing if we are going to blow through the 10 Day MA to the upside or hit a brick wall when we approach it. If we are getting a strong CROSSOVER then often prices will leap across it to the upside and leave this pivot in the dust. So for today we are going to be watching carefully the reaction to this 984.00 price area for sure.
Pro Trader's Action
I use this section to recap what we tried to communicate on the Morning Call today. It is said that "repetition is the mother of all learning" and that is very true in the Pro Trader Action section.
The main message for today is to not get caught up in thinking you "have to trade". We have a lot of challenging elements in the market this week which I have described to you and as Pro Traders we just don't want to concern about it too much. Just be on guard for exact, precise TCF trading setups and if they are not confirming then get excited about having an extra long weekend. As mentioned we will have an abbreviated Morning Call on Thursday along with all the important numbers we publish for you everyday.
Let's see if the market gives us a chance to get long today so we can make our regular 8-10 point trade. All the best of luck and success, Mohan