disparam, porque por todo o lado se começou a falar que o repor do ISM não é tão feio como o queriam pintar:
A maior queda foi das Inventories, mas as Ordens, Production, New Export Orders e Imports subiram, e o índice de preços tb subiu.
Dum ponto de vista bull, no geral é positivo!
ECONOMIC REPORT: Close but no growth in factories
ISM index disappoints at 49.8%, but mood is 'upbeat'
By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 11:34 AM ET July 1, 2003
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The manufacturing sector in the United States contracted again in June for the fourth month in a row, the Institute for Supply Management reported Tuesday.
The ISM index rose to 49.8 percent in June from 49.4 percent in May, just below the 50 percent mark that indicates expansion in the sector.
Economists said the report was better than it looked on the surface. "The mood of the survey respondents has definitely turned upbeat," said Norbert Ore, head of the ISM's survey committee. Nine of 20 industries reported growth in the month.
Economists were expecting the index to rise to 51.3 percent in June, which would have indicated the first growth in the factory sector since February.
The disappointing report pushed U.S. stock markets lower. Bond prices initially rallied on the news, but later continued to downward trend that pushed yields on the benchmark 10-year not to 3.52 percent.
The report shows some improvement in the sector, particularly in the key new orders and production indexes. Inventories and prices paid were negatives.
"The June ISM survey results, while a little softer than anticipated, are still consistent with a gradual turnaround in manufacturing activity," said Jade Zelnik, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital
"This report suggests there has in fact been greater manufacturing sector stabilization and is poised for strength in the coming months," said Mat Johnson, chief economist at Quantit Economic Group.
The new orders index rose to 52.2 percent from 51.9 percent in May. The production index rose to 52.9 percent from 51.5 percent in May. New export orders rose to 54.4 percent from 50.8 percent. The inventory index fell to 41.3 percent from 46.1 percent.
"The improved showing of the new orders, production, and new export orders indexes is encouraging as it appears that manufacturing is positioned for a recovery in the second half," Ore said.
Ore said that a 10 percent drop in inventories held the index down in June.
"I would expect that to translate immediately into a little-bit stronger number in new orders and production next month. So it looks pretty good in that regard," Ore said.
Ore said the overall thrust of the report was "very positive."
"We now have two months of growth in new orders - we have two months of growth in production," he said. The export sector is benefiting from the softer dollar, Ore added.
"It kind of sets the stage for the second half of the year that we should see growth in manufacturing. I don't think the drivers exist to make it exceptionally strong growth - by our numbers, I think we'll see [gross domestic product] in the 2-3 percent range," Ore said.
Firms said natural gas costs were a primary concern in June. Capital spending remained weak, while housing was a pillar of strength, Ore said.
Firms cut their lead time for capital expenditures to 101 days from 104 days, indicating slightly less certainty about their expansion plans.
Backlogs and supplier deliveries were unchanged. Employment improved, but with the index at 46.2 percent, firms are still shedding workers.
In other reports released Thursday, the Commerce Department said construction outlays fell 1.7 percent in May, the biggest decline in a year. Spending on new offices and on public schools and prisons dropped. Even spending on the red-hot residential sector fell.
Also, the number of job reductions announced by U.S. companies fell 13 percent to a 31-month low of 59,715, according to the monthly tally by Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Enviado: 1/7/2003 23:38
