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Look for market to move higher today especially on lower open and lower early prices. TCF CATCHES TOP TICK AGAIN ON MONDAY.
ESU03 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Tuesday, July 1, 2003
Prev Day - SP
Range: 11.70 Value Area
Range: 6.00 TCF Key Numbers for ES

986.70 Pit Bull MA

High 982.80

980.25-979.25 Sell Pivot

Open 978.50

978.00

Close 973.30

972.00

Low 971.10

968.75-969.75 Buy Pivot





Trade Setup Summary for Monday, June 30, 2003:
Sell 982.50/ Cover 974.50 and lower. +8-10 pts. (Sell- Sell Pivot target)

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today. A special welcome to all of our new visiting traders from around the globe and new subscribers.

21st Century Futures is committed to bringing you the most cutting edge daily Morning Call briefing in the industry. We have now become known in the circles of professional traders such as hedge fund managers, floor traders, top brokers and long time pro traders who look to our ideas to add an edge to their strategies. We also are an excellent vehicle for beginning S&P500 and E mini traders also who are looking to shave many years off their learning curve.

The primary side of our double Headline Call Monday was looking for an opening above 973.30 and an early push up in prices that would sell off and close lower. We got the higher open and early run up right to the Sell Pivot target at the 982.50-983.50 zone which we had recommended shorting on Monday. The market pulled back rapidly off the Sell Pivot Target which was WITHIN ONE TICK OF THE HIGH. This is the second time in a week of trading that we have caught the top/bottom tick. Our trade recommendation last Tuesday to buy the BreakDown of the Hour One pivots was the bottom tick of that day. I only mention this not to brag or some B.S. like that but to show you the incredible accuracy of our trading methods that we will be demonstrating to you on these Morning Call briefings.

The S&P500 sold off from 882.50 moving 8 handles lower in about 50 minutes. Within another hour the market had pushed 2 handles lower fulfilling our goal of up to 10 points on a TCF Trade Setup. You had to take our Sell Pivot target trade early in the day and based on our exact Headline Call and the subsequent clear setup which occurred. The High Five were not a reliable indicator for this trade and I often say that during the first hour of trading the High Five are not fully awake and have not got out of bed yet.

After some time of watching our Morning Call on the FREE TRIAL you will be able to develop faith and confidence in the setups like hundreds of traders already have. BE SURE TO READ OUR TESTIMONIAL SECTION IF YOU HAVEN'T ALREADY. We use exact entry, stop methods and precision profit goals which are described clearly in our S&P500 Handbook which is available to subscribers on our site for a ridiculously low cost. I don't believe in gouging traders but instead giving them something they can really sink their teeth into and make some real dough$ with. Join us today for a subscription and read one of the best S&P500 trading books ever written ....if I don't mind saying so myself. Hey, I can say this because I have read most of the trading books out there which discuss methods involving the S&P500. I respect all the traders and authors in the field but there is definitely a lot to be desired from the current books available right now on this subject. I decided to write a book ONLY if I felt I could make a unique contribution to the industry and so now it is available for serious traders who want to take their trading to the next level. Besides, in truth every day of our Morning Call is another page of the book and combined with our regular updates to questions on the ASK MOHAN section you are getting a very unique and elaborate education in this S&P500 business...the fastest game in town.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call today is looking for higher prices especially off a lower opening and early drop in prices. This will "Feed" the call for higher prices today off the lows. We use 18 proprietary indicators that I have developed which can be deadly accurate to develop the Headline Call. Sometimes our call is going to be wrong but we will show you over time how to fade our Headline Call when the market is clearly setting up for that reality. No big deal.

Now that the end of the quarter window dressing is wrapping up we are expecting a push higher as we move into the extra long Holiday weekend. Many of the traders will be following the advice to "Run to the Golf Course" as Louis Borsellino is fond of saying and we are expecting an overall positive tone for the week but not rip roaring bullish or anything. Now, we usually do not make short term calls on the market beyond our day to day approach. Occasionally though I see some things in the market that are indicating a bias and I try and hint at it. Let's see how the market handles things as we move towards a short week with the S&P500 closing 3 hours early on Thursday and closed for the entire day on Friday.

We had the LSS Sell day on Monday which was described on the Morning Call (with additional information in our Handbook) and we saw that fulfilled nicely closing into the lower third of the range. Although we got a strong reflex rally off the fast, early sell off that we had suggested shorting we ended up pushing lower after a second failure at the 981 area. This is the characteristic of an LSS Sell day...IE: prices showing their lows into the final hour usually. Oddly, we had the exact same close as Friday which is rare. Our 18 proprietary TCF indicators are suggesting higher prices off an early drop and this is what we would look for today to trade that action.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We are going to be on the lookout for a Bullish BreakOut Buy first of all IF the B/O is the first of the Hour One pivots to be hit. We have very specific criteria to catch a B/O buy and that includes the Dow being FLAT at the time of the B/O along with the NAZ up +12-15 points leading the way. We describe the Dow as being flat when it is up +50 or less. We would also look for the TRIN to be under .80 or so for a B/O and VIX lower at -.50 or more ideally.On the other side we do need to be prepared to also look to Buy the B/D if that is the first pivot hit of the Hour One Pivots. There is a good chance this could be hit today first and we would look to buy that BreakDown BUT ONLY if the High Five are not Bear Ugly.

We show what the definition of Bear Ugly is in our section on the High Five. Usually a true Bear Ugly day will also start the day off with a heavy bearish mood. Often you will see the market gap open lower with some bad news driving the markets lower. The High Five will be clearly following the criteria shown on the High Five table and we will be looking for an 8-10 point move below the lows put in the first hour. Although this is NOT expected for today our subscribers who are astute are always prepared for this occurrence. If the High Five are bearish on a lower early move but not entirely Bear Ugly then experienced traders can attempt to buy the B/D minus 2-4 points below the lows trying to get a better deal on the price. This takes some time to develop the skill to learn how to do this and some days are easier than others. You can use the B/D pivot directly but by getting a few points shaved off it takes some heat off the stop and gets you long at a potentially better price.

We will not be recommending the Buy/Sell Pivot Targets today but watching them for directional bias.If you are brand new to watching our Morning Call then don't concern too much about learning all the descriptions and lingo you see here. Just watch the action as it occurs and read our RECAP of the previous day carefully and gradually you will begin to develop a feel for these briefings along with the means by which you can make money trading off of them.

Value Area: 972.00 - 978.00
The trading range on Monday was smaller than the average as of late and the VA is tight today too. This will give us clues as to the markets strength in relation to our Headline Call on any early drops in the market. If we trade below the VA and then attempt to push up back into it we will look for a VA retracement for clues. When the prices move below the VA and then rise to hold above the 972.00 for a 2-3 minute period it is a regular floor trader practice to try and go long for a 75% retracement of the VA range. Today this would be around 4.5 points or 976.50. If our Headline Call pans out as expected then we should move higher over all even crossing above the top of the Value Area.

Buy Pivot Target: 968.75 - 969.75
No trade at this Target today. Just observe the -4.25 stop/pivot at 964.50 for strong support. Notice that we are seeing this 964.00 number show up again just like yesterday. We had mentioned that on a lower move this would be first support and then cracking this to the downside with a Bear Ugly market situation unfolding we would see the 942.00 as the next goal lower with a "pit stop" at 953.00 along the way.

Sell Pivot Target: 980.25 - 979.25
This was double resistance yesterday and if we are going to see a mild bulish move today we will most likely challenge this area again. Let's not trade this Sell Pivot Target but watch and compare it to the BreakOut price to see if there is a correlation. We may find that by waiting for the BreakOut Hour One pivot we will find a clearer price to work from and directional clue.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 986.70
According to our rules and methods as long as we are trading below this Pit Bull number we will be looking to maintain a "Sell Rallies Mentality". Once we close within 10 handles of this price we will go on what we call a "Crossover Alert". A Crossover Alert is where we begin preparing to "Front Run" the price move to the other side of this 10 Day Moving Average with a bullish change of directional bias. Floor traders watch this number like hawks and so do we. Although we will frequently trade counter to this directional bias (such as today in our looking to buy lower prices) we still maintain the idea that any significant rallies BELOW this number will most likely get hit with selling. Same on the opposite side of the Pit Bull when we will be in a "Buy Drops" mode with the bullish directional bias.

Pro Trader's Action
Today's briefing is a little longer than normal and it is because as we launch the Morning Call service with 21st Century Futures we want to bring our new visiting traders and subscribers up to speed on our approach. Be prepared each day to take lots of notes on the trading ideas demonstrated here and you will find that after a few weeks the lights will go on and you will actually see how relatively simple our approach is.

The key to making a career in S&P500 trading is to follow a proven system that you can live with day in and day out. We are DAYTRADERS here on the Morning Call and by using our daily approach to capture 8-10 points you will see how your account can build up nicely. When we are wrong or our calls are not panning out on certain days you will also see how our system protects us from getting hammered and losing a lot of money. You have to expect losses with any approach but the key is to minimize damage.

I have observed so many systems that may do great when things are going in the flow of the particular system but when things get bad all the gains are given up and lost...even more. My view is this is not professional or realistic for a career trader. That is actually one of the most important features of developing a system. Over time and with experience you will come to find that survival in this business is extremely important and the pros who have been around 5 years, 8 years, and 10 years+ really know this. The new kids are ONLY thinking about "racking up the huge profits TODAY"...yeah sure. It takes skill development, working knowledge, and practice like any professional business...even more so.

Let's look to be buyers today especially on a lower open and move lower hitting the B/D as the first Hour One pivot. We may get a BreakOut Buy but the chance is less likely. Least likely is a Bear Ugly day but we still always need to know the EXACT method for handling that to keep the 8-10 point trades rolling in. With volume possibly drying up some Wednesday and on Thursdays short day be willing to take some extra time off this week if nothing is clearly shaping up. Relish the times in this business when the exchange and the arrangement of schedules gives you time to reflect, relax and research. Those are the traders 3 R's in this school of the "Fastest Game in Town"!

All the best of luck and success today. I'll see you in the action. Mohan