Cramer- "A Good Pair Can Be a Winning Hand"
Enviado: 23/6/2003 19:11Neste curto artigo, Cramer fala de uma estratégia que os adeptos da análise fundamental gostam muito que é abrir uma posição longa e uma curta em duas empresas do mesmo sector,tentando aproveitar o conhecimento individual das empresas e, simultaneamente tentando defender-se dos movimentos dos mercados em geral.
Ulisses
"A Good Pair Can Be a Winning Hand"
By James J. Cramer
06/23/2003 01:30 PM EDT
"What's the right price for Lucent (LU:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis)? Should it be $2.60, where it climbed to? Should it be $1.40, where it climbed from?
Does it matter? I think that Lucent is, like Sun (SUNW:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis), emblematic of this market. How much will you pay for an asset that probably isn't going out of business but is also not doing well and must keep issuing shares to clean up its balance sheet?
I always come back to relatives on these points. Relatives like "If Lucent is at $1.95, than Nortel (NT:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) should be at $4." It is why I think you can still put on a long Nortel/short Lucent trade, because NT is doing better than LU, and it isn't reflected in that ratio.
Why not just short Lucent? Because if things get better, which could happen, you will get crushed.
Why not just go long Nortel? Because if things don't get better, you could lose a buck in the bat of any eye.
I know that it is simpler to have an absolute view -- Lucent's going to 50 cents, so sell it, or Lucent's done going down, so buy it. But that's just too hard. That's what's so great about the paired trade.
This one seems very right to me right here, and if I could short, I would do this trade and do it aggressively as a way to best to capture the current uncertainty. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
Ulisses
"A Good Pair Can Be a Winning Hand"
By James J. Cramer
06/23/2003 01:30 PM EDT
"What's the right price for Lucent (LU:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis)? Should it be $2.60, where it climbed to? Should it be $1.40, where it climbed from?
Does it matter? I think that Lucent is, like Sun (SUNW:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis), emblematic of this market. How much will you pay for an asset that probably isn't going out of business but is also not doing well and must keep issuing shares to clean up its balance sheet?
I always come back to relatives on these points. Relatives like "If Lucent is at $1.95, than Nortel (NT:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) should be at $4." It is why I think you can still put on a long Nortel/short Lucent trade, because NT is doing better than LU, and it isn't reflected in that ratio.
Why not just short Lucent? Because if things get better, which could happen, you will get crushed.
Why not just go long Nortel? Because if things don't get better, you could lose a buck in the bat of any eye.
I know that it is simpler to have an absolute view -- Lucent's going to 50 cents, so sell it, or Lucent's done going down, so buy it. But that's just too hard. That's what's so great about the paired trade.
This one seems very right to me right here, and if I could short, I would do this trade and do it aggressively as a way to best to capture the current uncertainty. "
(in www.realmoney.com)