CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Era só para saber.
Abraço.

Ehehe!

Sim, basicamente mantenho a minha opinião em relação aos mercados ou seja, estou optimista em relação ao médio/longo prazo mas acredito que, nas próximas semanas (meses?) os mercados terão que retrair destas subidas muito violentas.

Depois da correcção, aí sim se começará a travar a verdadeira batalha entre ursos e touros. Ficarei, nessa altura, à espera de sinais para reentrar no mercado. Para já, mantenho-me de fora em relação à negociação de índices, embora vá fazendo alguns "trades" esporádicos em algumas acções interessantes do ponto de vista técnico.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

Para quando um update da sua opinão acerca do estado dos mercados actuais? Mantêm a sua opinião do dia 12?
É que o seu último artigo não era para mim...ehehe...
Abraço.

"Belief in the Upside Relies Too Much on Faith"

By James J. Cramer
06/20/2003 07:38 AM EDT


"The positive Japan story continues to show legs. That market acts like there's some substance behind the move.

Of course, we are all suspicious here because we think it happened because their Fed was buying junk bonds. It's pretty ludicrous at that. But I like the fact that it takes the pressure off the system for a moment so some good things can happen over time.


If someone asked me what this market needs, more than anything, it is time. Time to find out whether Japan is just a short-squeeze. Time to find out if tech earnings are really coming back. Time for the tax cuts to work. Time for the Chinese to get back to ordering. Time to work off still-heavy inventories in some industries. Time to organize Iraq so that oil flows -- and maybe those pesky weapons of mass destruction get found. And, yes, time for the sun to come out in the eastern half of the country to see if people will still buy anything for the summer.

Without the time to see these things, we are asking for too much faith. I think that faith and belief in positive things is integral to a bull market.

But so, in the end, is data. We need more data that things are better after the rally we've had. If we get it, we can go higher. If we don' t, I think that we must go lower.

Until we have it, though, we will be stuck here and the most dangerous thing that could happen isn't a decline, but a serious advance led by the fund manager types at the FirstHands, who are amazingly still in our business despite the horrid performances and the capital destruction.

If we don't bide time and go higher instead, I'm a seller at every step up now. Because we simply don't know enough to do otherwise. "

(in www.realmoney.com)