CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Boa tarde/noite

Lá está. Cada vez me fazem mais sentido as teorias pouco ortodoxas que coloquei nas última "Colherada".
Quando há excesso de liquidez, no caso dólares americanos, o valor dos mesmos cai perante tudo, seja perante outras moedas, seja perante valores mobiliários e tudo o que mais possamos imaginar.
Ora, parece-me que o Cramer coloca a questão da falta de oferta de acções perante a procura. E desta vez, o FED não vai enxugar a liquidez com aumentos de taxas, pelo contrário, a máquina de impressão não pára. Portanto, é só trocar o papel moeda pelo papel acção, neste caso.
Assim, não é de admirar a força do mercado.
O que não quer dizer que não caia a dada altura, mas isso já é outra história...

Um abraço
dj

Aqui fica o artigo.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

"This Isn't 1999; Look at the Tight Supply"

By James J. Cramer
06/03/2003 02:35 PM EDT


"We are not back in 1999. You have to keep telling yourself that because this market has some attributes of 1999: runaway Janus investing, stupid stocks going higher, lots of people bullish.

But the main difference is in supply. Companies are not willing to sell equity at these levels. There are not a lot of deals. There is still a tight supply. That matters because it is very hard to have a real decline, a hard decline, unless the desks around the Street are long.


In 1999, we were in equilibrium. Lots of demand, lots of supply. We tipped into too much supply the moment the Federal Reserve started raising rates to levels that were very attractive and companies and individuals were eager to unload stock at virtually any levels, courtesy of the end of IPO lockups.

We are not in that situation now. We have lots of natural buyers, from mutual funds to short-sellers. We have little supply. I know many of you think the market is totally nuts here. To me, totally nuts is when you have two to three deals a day and massive insider selling. We don't have those.

Let's keep this consolidation in perspective. Let's keep the era in perspective. The 1999 analogy sans eBay, Yahoo!, Amazon and USA Interactive just won't wash. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

Podias colocar o artigo do Cramer "This isn't 1999" ... parece interessante.

Se calhar até defende que isto não é 1999 porque agora há MENOS oferta (o que é assustador, se a procura for igual).

Obrigado.