Cramer- "Funds Keep Demand for Stocks High"
Enviado: 2/6/2003 13:47"Funds Keep Demand for Stocks High"
By James J. Cramer
06/02/2003 08:29 AM EDT
"No new merchandise. Nothing to sop up the demand. It is an equity mutual-fund manager's paradise.
We've had an unprecedented launching of convertible bonds in the last few months. That's become the preferred financing vehicle for existing companies, courtesy of low interest rates and flush convert arb managers.
But that causes an unprecedented equity shortage for those funds that are opening their doors or getting new monies in from the pure equity side. That's one of the reasons stocks don't want to quit here: They can't. There's just too much demand for them.
Last week, two events occurred that the shorts thought would cut the demand. Novellus reported a so-so number with so-so guidance and Tech Data reported a terrible number. If there had been no new money in, I think you would have seen tech go down and stay down on this piece of information.
But those pieces can't trigger selling if the mutual funds don't have to sell. And the news was just ambiguous enough -- Tech Data's a crummy company with real issues, Novellus didn't say things were getting worse -- that the mutual funds, which are required to find the glass totally full -- not half-full, mind you -- chose to disregard the negatives and buy.
I know that a lot of the bears I see roving everywhere are saying, "These funds have learned nothing," and doom gets predicted because of that. Me, I am a simple interpreter of events. I love the fact that the mutual funds can be gamed so easily. If they changed their stripes, it would be impossible to make any money around here!
Does that make me less rigorous? Hardly. To me, it makes the unrigorous ones those who would scoff at a move because it is made by these yahoos. Because this is not academia, as I never tire of saying. This is retailing. There isn't enough merchandise around to feed these innate buyers.
So, don't short it to them, silly.
Wait. They will pay higher prices, still."
(in www.realmoney.com)
By James J. Cramer
06/02/2003 08:29 AM EDT
"No new merchandise. Nothing to sop up the demand. It is an equity mutual-fund manager's paradise.
We've had an unprecedented launching of convertible bonds in the last few months. That's become the preferred financing vehicle for existing companies, courtesy of low interest rates and flush convert arb managers.
But that causes an unprecedented equity shortage for those funds that are opening their doors or getting new monies in from the pure equity side. That's one of the reasons stocks don't want to quit here: They can't. There's just too much demand for them.
Last week, two events occurred that the shorts thought would cut the demand. Novellus reported a so-so number with so-so guidance and Tech Data reported a terrible number. If there had been no new money in, I think you would have seen tech go down and stay down on this piece of information.
But those pieces can't trigger selling if the mutual funds don't have to sell. And the news was just ambiguous enough -- Tech Data's a crummy company with real issues, Novellus didn't say things were getting worse -- that the mutual funds, which are required to find the glass totally full -- not half-full, mind you -- chose to disregard the negatives and buy.
I know that a lot of the bears I see roving everywhere are saying, "These funds have learned nothing," and doom gets predicted because of that. Me, I am a simple interpreter of events. I love the fact that the mutual funds can be gamed so easily. If they changed their stripes, it would be impossible to make any money around here!
Does that make me less rigorous? Hardly. To me, it makes the unrigorous ones those who would scoff at a move because it is made by these yahoos. Because this is not academia, as I never tire of saying. This is retailing. There isn't enough merchandise around to feed these innate buyers.
So, don't short it to them, silly.
Wait. They will pay higher prices, still."
(in www.realmoney.com)