Roach defende "queda do USD"
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Roach defende "queda do USD"
Poderá resultar, mas os efeitos positivos desse realinhamento (refomas estruturais na europa, Japão, etc.)levarão anos a concretizar-se.
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""One possibility would be through a realignment of the world’s most important relative price -- the dollar. The problem with this option is that most nations think that they deserve the weaker currency. Japan wants a weaker yen and Europe feels it could benefit from a weaker euro. But the economics is pretty clear on how currency adjustments ultimately work. The nation with the current-account deficit -- in this case, the United States -- is at the front of the queue. A persistence of the so-called strong-dollar regime of the past eight years is the last thing a dysfunctional world needs. It would continue to shelter the non-US world, thereby inhibiting the heavy lifting of structural reform.
A weaker dollar could save the world from deflation. For the United States, a shift in the “currency translation” effect would transform imported deflation into imported inflation. For Japan and Europe, stronger currencies would initially be painful. The appreciation of the yen and the euro would undermine external demand, the only source of sustainable growth in these economies in recent years. That would leave Japan and Europe with no choice other than finally to bite the bullet on reforms in order to stimulate domestic demand. The gain would be worth the pain. It would eventually result in a more balanced mix of global growth -- less domestic consumption from a saving-short US economy and more domestic demand from the saving-surplus economies of Japan and Europe.
There is always a chance such a currency realignment might backfire. If the non-US world chooses to deflect the pain of a weaker dollar, the risk of competitive currency devaluations might intensify. That would take the world down a very slippery slope of trade frictions and protectionism. The recent outbreak of China bashing in Japan is particularly worrisome in that regard. The Chinas and Indias of the world are not a threat. To the contrary, they enable high-cost producers and service-providers in the developed world to realize efficiencies through outsourcing. They also enable rich nations to expand their purchasing power by buying cheaper, high quality goods and services. There will also come a day when the supply-led impetus of countries like China and India hits a critical mass in boosting income generation and domestic demand -- completing the virtuous circle of global rebalancing.
A dysfunctional global economy is at a critical juncture. An intensification of deflationary risks is a real threat if an imbalanced world stays its present course. As globalization continues to expand the supply side of the world economy, a deficiency of aggregate demand becomes the real enemy. If concrete actions are taken to boost the demand side of the global economy, the deflationary time bomb will be defused. The heavy lifting of structural reforms and global rebalancing is the only way out.""
Bom dia, e um abraço ao Caldeirão
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""One possibility would be through a realignment of the world’s most important relative price -- the dollar. The problem with this option is that most nations think that they deserve the weaker currency. Japan wants a weaker yen and Europe feels it could benefit from a weaker euro. But the economics is pretty clear on how currency adjustments ultimately work. The nation with the current-account deficit -- in this case, the United States -- is at the front of the queue. A persistence of the so-called strong-dollar regime of the past eight years is the last thing a dysfunctional world needs. It would continue to shelter the non-US world, thereby inhibiting the heavy lifting of structural reform.
A weaker dollar could save the world from deflation. For the United States, a shift in the “currency translation” effect would transform imported deflation into imported inflation. For Japan and Europe, stronger currencies would initially be painful. The appreciation of the yen and the euro would undermine external demand, the only source of sustainable growth in these economies in recent years. That would leave Japan and Europe with no choice other than finally to bite the bullet on reforms in order to stimulate domestic demand. The gain would be worth the pain. It would eventually result in a more balanced mix of global growth -- less domestic consumption from a saving-short US economy and more domestic demand from the saving-surplus economies of Japan and Europe.
There is always a chance such a currency realignment might backfire. If the non-US world chooses to deflect the pain of a weaker dollar, the risk of competitive currency devaluations might intensify. That would take the world down a very slippery slope of trade frictions and protectionism. The recent outbreak of China bashing in Japan is particularly worrisome in that regard. The Chinas and Indias of the world are not a threat. To the contrary, they enable high-cost producers and service-providers in the developed world to realize efficiencies through outsourcing. They also enable rich nations to expand their purchasing power by buying cheaper, high quality goods and services. There will also come a day when the supply-led impetus of countries like China and India hits a critical mass in boosting income generation and domestic demand -- completing the virtuous circle of global rebalancing.
A dysfunctional global economy is at a critical juncture. An intensification of deflationary risks is a real threat if an imbalanced world stays its present course. As globalization continues to expand the supply side of the world economy, a deficiency of aggregate demand becomes the real enemy. If concrete actions are taken to boost the demand side of the global economy, the deflationary time bomb will be defused. The heavy lifting of structural reforms and global rebalancing is the only way out.""
Bom dia, e um abraço ao Caldeirão
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