Fecho do Estreito de Ormuz ameaça atirar crude acima dos 100 dólares

[O Alquimista]

I’ve come to a realization about financial advisory firms that I think is an important one. You can boil down whether or not a financial advisor is adding value into a single metric, you might even say it’s the only metric that matters: Retention. Do clients stay? - Joshua Brown

[O Alquimista]

Cont.
Vencido o suporte e criada a resistência, prosseguirá no sentido da projecção?

The day momentum died, mean-reversion was born. I call this new paradigm momersion: a little momentum followed by a little mean-reversion so that all those hit by at least 10 cognitive biases cannot make any money easily in the longer-term unless they put some real work to identify value and are also a little lucky. Momersion will persist until everyone who has built a business on hindsight bias is out of the game. This is how the market works. Value seeking always prevails above and over naive schemes to extract alpha. - Michael Harris

[O Alquimista]

Cont.

Se a vela vermelha passar a verde e a verde a vermelha, o sentido ficará mais claro?

In a typical experiment of this kind, researchers flash two lights, one green and one red, onto a screen. Four out of five times, it’s the green light that flashes; the other 20% of the time, the red light comes on. But the exact sequence is kept random. In guessing which light will flash next, the best strategy is simple to predict green every time, since you stand an 80% chance of being right. And that’s what rats or pigeons generally do when the experiments reward them with a crumb of food or correctly guessing what color the next flash of light will be. Humans, however, tend to flunk this kind of experiment. Instead of just picking green all the time and locking in an 80% chance of being right, people will typically pick green four out of five times, quickly getting caught up in the game of trying to call when the next red flash will come up. On average, this misguided confidence leads people to pick the next flash accurately on only 68% of their tries. Stranger still, humans will persist in this behavior even when the researchers tell them explicitly — as you cannot do with a rat or pigeon — that the flashing light is random. And, while rodents and birds usually learn quite quickly how to maximize their score, people often perform worse the longer they try to figure it out. - Jason Zweig, Your Money & Your Brain.

[O Alquimista]

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=83288&p=1256341#p1255715
Alguém acordou para a realidade.

XX

Cont.
À espera que a projecção se concretize, agora que encontrou suporte (temporário?) na resistência.

The ground below our feet is constantly shifting and only the open-minded can make the mental leaps from one regime to the next. Those who choose their one or two Most Important Things to follow religiously and base their views upon (CAPE Ratio, Fed Model, Seasonality, Economic Outlook) are going to find themselves consistently run over in The Street. - Joshua Brown

[O Alquimista]

Cont.

Passado: 1 - X projectou X - Y.
Presente: procurando suporte na resistência. Há quem defenda compras nos suportes.
Futuro: 1 - 2 projecta 3? 1 - X - Y projecta 3?

Anecdotally, nonsensical forecasts seems to permeate from technical analysis way more than fundamental analysis, which is the main reason it often gets ridiculed. These outrageous claims are provided by technicians that abuse the charts. They’ll draw a few dozen lines, waves and retracements, and use a handful of oscillators. In addition to some of the crazy artwork, the patterns they’ll cite have names that sound ridiculous to the laymen; a rising wedge, head and shoulders, three peaks and a domed house, etc. - Michael Batnick

[O Alquimista]

Cont.
Preço numa resistência: há quem compre, há quem venda.

The key is recognizing that the long run is just a collection of short runs, and capturing long-term growth means managing the short run effectively enough to ensure you can stick around for a long time. - Morgan Housel

[O Alquimista]

Qualquer dos sentidos é possível mas a moeda só tem dois lados.

A large majority of what the financial industry calls financial advice is really just glorified product sales. - Ben Carlson

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Cont.
Projectando 3: 1 - 2? x - y? A - 1?

In my more than 40 years of providing risk management counsel on markets, I’ve learned that we are all subject to both confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance. That means when we hear ideas that confirm our beliefs and/or fears, we tend to put lots of weight on them (and are overconfident about them being correct). On the other hand, when we hear things that disagree with our beliefs/concerns, we tend to reject them, ignore them or discredit them. And that leads to big mistakes. - Larry Swedroe

[O Alquimista]

x - a - b - c - (gap) d - e - (-) f - (-) g - h - (-) i - (-) j - k - l - m - n - (gap) o - p - (-) q - (-) r - (gap) (-) s - t - u - (-) v - (-) w - (gap) (-) x - (-) y - z.
1 - "dó" (criação da ilusão) - (gap) (-) "li" - zzzz... - ...

xxxxx

1 - 2 pojecta 3?

You don`t need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows - Bob Dylan

[O Alquimista]

Cont.
Um suporte é constituído por n barras.
Uma barra no diário são n barras no...
N barras no...dá para desenhar e imaginar muita coisa.

A stock is for all practical purposes, a piece of paper that sits in a bank vault. Most likely you will never see it. It may or may not have an Intrinsic Value; what it is worth on any given day depends on the confluence of buyers and sellers that day. The most important thing to realize is simplistic: The stock doesn’t know you own it. All those marvelous things, or those terrible things, that you feel about a stock, or a list of stocks, or an amount of money represented by a list of stocks, all of these things are unreciprocated by the stock or the group of stocks. You can be in love if you want to, but that piece of paper doesn’t love you, and unreciprocated love can turn into masochism, narcissism, or, even worse, market losses and unreciprocated hate. - Adam Smith

[O Alquimista]

Cont.
Reagindo ao suporte.

It’s a clubhouse for nerds. And last I checked, nerds ruled the earth. Not the pocket protector geeks of yore, but those unworried about looks and image who are focused on their identity. - Bob Lefsetz

[O Alquimista]

Gráf. 1:
x - a - b - c - (gap) d - e - (-) f - (-) g - h - (-) i - (-) j - k - l - m - n - (gap) o - p - (-) q - (-) r - (gap) (-) s - t - u - (-) v - (-) w - (gap) (-) x - (-) y - z.
1 - "dó" (criação da ilusão) - (gap) (-) "li" - ...

Gráf. 2:

Fundo de Investimento Alquimia 2017 prepara-se para o primeiro movimento especulativo: compra no suporte.

Reagindo ao suporte.

Some old-timers think that trading methods that worked in the 1990s and before will always work but the above chart offers no hope to this wishful thinking. Markets have changed significantly and essentially arbitraged out the signals of random chart traders.(...) in recent years there have been numerous failures of flagship patterns of the old school. That has not prevented some old-timers from looking to teach these methods to young traders for a fee in an effort to recoup their losses from trading. Yes, people who do not understand markets but only carry around “their Bible” on chart patterns from the 1950s or 1970s want to teach young traders in the era of HFT and machine learning how to trade with head and shoulders and double bottoms. It is ludicrous. - Michael Harris

[O Alquimista]

Gráf. 1:
x - a - b - c - (gap) d - e - (-) f - (-) g - h - (-) i - (-) j - k - l - m - n - (gap) o - p - (-) q - (-) r - (gap) (-) s - t - u - (-) v - (-) w - (gap) (-) x - (-) y - z.
1 - "dó" (criação da ilusão) - ...
O abecedário como fonte do padrão. O padrão "dromedário cabisbaixo". O que se quiser.
https://prash454.wordpress.com/2015/02/ ... -analysis/

Gráf. 2:
Fundo de Investimento Alquimia 2017 prepara-se para o primeiro movimento especulativo: compra no suporte.

[O Alquimista]

x - a - b - c - (gap) d - e - (-) f - (-) g - h - (-) i - (-) j - k - l - m - n - (gap) o - p - (-) q - (-) r - (gap) (-) s - t - u - (-) v - (-) w - (gap) (-) x - (-) y - z.
1 - ...

If the security you are considering is truly a good investment, not a speculation, you would certainly want to own more at lower prices. - Seth Klarman

[O Alquimista]

x - a - b - c - (gap) d - e - (-) f - (-) g - h - (-) i - (-) j - k - l - m - n - (gap) o - p - (-) q - (-) r - (gap) (-) s - t - u - (-) v - (-) w - (gap) (-) x - (-) y - z.

If you find an asset whose price looks expensive and is probably going to fall, you likely haven’t found a bubble. You’ve found capitalism. Excesses will correct, recover, and life will go on. - Morgan Housel

[O Alquimista]

x - a - b - c - (gap) d - e - (-) f - (-) g - h - (-) i - (-) j - k - l - m - n - (gap) o - p - (-) q - (-) r - (gap) (-) s - t - u - (-) v - (-) w - (gap) (-) x - (-) y - ...

Hedge fund managers outperform substantially and significantly on the positions that they double down on. Portfolios formed of these positions generate risk-adjusted outperformance of 5-15% on an annualized basis. The outperformance of doubling down is not explained by mechanical or previously identified asset pricing effects. Rather, doubling down behavior and returns are consistent with a career risks mechanism for this effect. Doubling down on a stock reverses the phenomenon of window dressing. By adding to a loser, fund managers call more attention to their mistakes. - Jonathan Rhinesmith

[O Alquimista]

x - a - b - c - (gap) d - e - (-) f - (-) g - h - (-) i - (-) j - k - l - m - n - (gap) o - p - (-) q - (-) r - (gap) (-) s - t - ...
O fim do abecedário poderá ser o início de algo.

x - a - b - c - (gap) d - e - (-) f - (-) g - h - (-) i - (-) j - k - l - m - n - (gap) o - p - (-) q - (-) r - (gap) (-) s - t - u - (-) v - (-) w - (gap) (-) x - ... Antecipou-se ao fim do abecedário.

In the 1990s, a book on chart patterns would receive multiple offers from publishers and a large advance would be paid to the author. Now it is understood by most that these patterns are random and manuscripts for related books are rejected while aspiring authors do not even get an email reply. Yet, these random chart pattern formations have found their natural place in social media and YouTube, where millions of messages that attribute to them some forecasting power are posted daily and hundreds of new videos are made every week to teach new traders things such as the head and shoulders, triangles, island reversals and wedges, among other random patterns. - Michael Harris

[O Alquimista]

x - a - b - c - (gap) d - e - (-) f - (-) g - h - (-) i - (-) j - k - l - m - n - (gap) o - p - (-) q - (-) r - (gap) (-) s - t - u - (-) v - (-) w - ...

In the era of deep learning, trading with chart patterns is like taking a horse to a car race. - Michael Harris

[O Alquimista]

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=83288&start=2050#p1245773
De regresso ao local.

Some investors would be better off being outsourced.- Tony Isola

[O Alquimista]

x - a - b - c - (gap) d - e - (-) f - (-) g - h - (-) i - (-) j - k - l - m - n - (gap) o - p - (-) q - (-) r - (gap) (-) s - t - ...
O fim do abecedário poderá ser o início de algo.

A strategy that I found that $1 a day is better than a strategy that I've not yet found that could make $1,000 a day - Rob Booker

[O Alquimista]

x - a - b - c - (gap) d - e - (-) f - (-) g - h - (-) i - (-) j - k - l - m - n - (gap) o - p - (-) q - (-) r - (gap) (-) s - ...

How do you best move toward mastery? To put it simply, you practice diligently, but you practice primarily for the sake of the practice itself. Rather than being frustrated while on the plateau, you learn to appreciate and enjoy it just as much as you do the upward surges. - George Leonard

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If you are going to fill your portfolio with crap, it better be diversified crap. - John Hempton

[O Alquimista]

Uma compra, a realizar em momento oportuno entre o dia de hoje e o fim do ano, poderá proporcionar um ganho de pelo menos metade da valorização que regista desde janeiro.

The science of astronomy does not lay claim to having influenced the movement of planets in their orbit, but merely to have cataloged facts which have always existed, simply to make the study of those facts easier and thus to lead into the observation of additional facts and laws. So the science of technical chart reading lays no claim to influencing the market or to developing new laws by which the market must act, but rather only to the cataloging of facts, reactions, laws and theories which have always existed, in order to clarify the study of the market and make easier further additions to the knowledge which goes to make up our science. - Richard Schabacker

[O Alquimista]

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The fact that intermediate horizon past performance has more power than recent pastperformance predicting returns can be seen in a variety of ways. In Fama-MacBethregressions of stocks’ returns on their past performance, the coefficient on intermediatepast performance is significantly higher than that on recent past performance. Momentumtrading strategies based on intermediate past performance generate larger, more significantreturns than those based on recent past performance and have significant alphas relative tothe Fama-French four factor model, while the strategies based on recent past performancedo not. - Robert Novy-Marx

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x - a - b - c - (gap) d - e - (-) f - (-) g - h - (-) i - (-) j - k - l - m - n - ...

Tanzan and Ekido were once traveling together down a muddy road. A heavy rain was still falling. Coming around a bend, they met a lovely girl in a silk kimono and sash, unable to cross the intersection. Come on, girl, said Tanzan at once. Lifting her in his arms, he carried her over the mud. Ekido did not speak again until that night when they reached a lodging temple. Then he no longer could restrain himself. We monks don't go near females, he told Tanzan, especially not young and lovely ones. It is dangerous. Why did you do that? I left the girl there, said Tanzan. Why are you still carrying her?