Banca surpreendida com negócio do Novo Banco

[MVP]

A baixa liquidez tem evidentemente alguma influência, sobretudo no spread entre o valor de compra/venda. Obviamente que o spread do TLT é super-apertado, e certamente que o deste ETF será maior. Mas tendo em conta que na estratégia deste tópico está vocacionada para o buy-and-hold, a importância deste factor é minimizada face ao praticantes de trades mais frequentes.

Bem visto ruicarlov, uma opção a considerar dado que quero, aos poucos, ir mudando para ETF's que capitalizem dividendos. É uma chatice ter de fazer a declaração mesmo não tendo vendido nada (apenas comprado) para pagar a restante percentagem dos dividendos.

Ja agora um "aparte": Esta queda do Eur/Usd está a dar-me mais "ganhos" que a valorização dos fundos em si. Se por acaso liquidasse as posições e recomprasse Euros alguém me sabe dizer de que forma teria de declarar estas mais valias?

Obrigado

[ruicarlov]

A baixa liquidez tem evidentemente alguma influência, sobretudo no spread entre o valor de compra/venda. Obviamente que o spread do TLT é super-apertado, e certamente que o deste ETF será maior. Mas tendo em conta que na estratégia deste tópico está vocacionada para o buy-and-hold, a importância deste factor é minimizada face ao praticantes de trades mais frequentes.

[MVP]

Vendi hoje a posição que tinha de TLT. O meu portfolio fica um pouco desequilibrado temporariamente mas com o fundo em máximos, vou tentar esperar por uma correção para voltar a assumir uma posição. Até lá, reforçar nas commodities e ouro, que estão no vermelho e começar a diversificar para ETF's europeus que não distribuam dividendos, que são de facto uma chatice a nível fiscal

Poderá ser uma boa altura para considerar este ETF:
US10 - Lyxor UCITS ETF iBoxx $ Treasuries

Recentemente alertaram-se que este ETF tem um comportamento estremamente semelhante ao TLT, já que a maturidade média das treasuries é muito próxima da do TLT. E capitaliza dividendos.

Obrigado pela sugestão ruicarlov.

O unico problema aparente deste é uma baixa liquidez, motivo que me fez anteriormente desfazer do ITE. Não será esse um factor também importante?

[ruicarlov]

Vendi hoje a posição que tinha de TLT. O meu portfolio fica um pouco desequilibrado temporariamente mas com o fundo em máximos, vou tentar esperar por uma correção para voltar a assumir uma posição. Até lá, reforçar nas commodities e ouro, que estão no vermelho e começar a diversificar para ETF's europeus que não distribuam dividendos, que são de facto uma chatice a nível fiscal

Poderá ser uma boa altura para considerar este ETF:
US10 - Lyxor UCITS ETF iBoxx $ Treasuries

Recentemente alertaram-se que este ETF tem um comportamento estremamente semelhante ao TLT, já que a maturidade média das treasuries é muito próxima da do TLT. E capitaliza dividendos.

[zeef]

Boas Pessoal,

Queria começar a ler o tópico mas parece que algumas sms foram apagadas. Existe alguem que o tenha guardado em pdf ou noutro formato?

Obrigado,

zeef,

[O Alquimista]

Recentemente dediquei-me em exclusivo ao trading de “commodities” para além da minha profissão do dia a dia, um tipo de Mercado “sui generis” onde as grandes alavancagens podem gerar dias de elevados lucros e risco de pesadas perdas na carteira “hedge fund” de caráter pessoal.

Negociar ações, para quem tiver como objetivo uma valorização rápida da sua conta pessoal, é realmente um desperdício de tempo!

Não admira portanto que tenha passado a ler alguns “sites” que se dedicam exclusivamente a esta modalidade do trading para acompanhar as novidades que possam ter os assuntos ligados a esta atividade apaixonante, para mim a verdadeira Fórmula 1 onde verdadeiras fortunas se constroem e destroem em sessões verdadeiramente mirabolantes e avassaladoras em termos de resultados.

Um dos meus “sites” preferidos nesta modalidade é o “Inside Futures” onde se podem encontrar artigos e conselhos excelentes sobre a melhor forma de abordar a negociação dos futuros de mercadorias.

Fica como exemplo um artigo abaixo que selecionei do CTA Don Dawson, vale a pena reter alguns dos seus prudentes avisos. (...)

Amigo Cem,

Ao ler a frase que sublinhei fiquei a pensar se esse alegado desperdício sucede (isto em abstracto, como é evidente):
a) por causa das acções que são seleccionadas para investir;
b) por causa do método que se usa, em toda a sua vertente (técnica de trading, timeframe, etc.);
c) porque se pensa que se tem um bom plano;
d) outros.

Estranho esse sentimento vindo de ti porque há algum tempo destacaste o alfa da tua carteira com o psi20 e este levava uma banhada, e não era preciso recorrer ao curto no bes, que então qualifiquei de outlier.

É curioso mencionares o Don Dawson, não quanto à mensagem que transmite ( para mim é sempre mais do mesmo: há algum tempo neste fórum eram colocadas citações e citações de um outro autor mas o colega forista deve ter-se chateado porque não mais o fez), mas quanto a uma outra situação: se já reparaste, ele integra o site online trading academy e esta organização tem uma newsletter gratuita que semanalmente envia onde são publicados vários textos escritos pelo Don e seus colegas. Um desses colegas é o Sam Seiden, que citei a propósito já não sei de quê, mas a reacção da bancada também foi...enfim, "mais do mesmo". Voltando ao Don: os seus artigos sobre as características dos respectivos mercados/futuros são, sem dúvida, muito importantes.

Seria engraçado ver-te abrir um tópico no caldeirão com esta nova aventura.

Para finalizar, uma pergunta: agora que entraste nos futuros, vais passar a usar stops? Verdadeiramente, não entraste pois já negociavas por ex. a soja.

Abraço e boa sorte

[rokk]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-2 ... ading.html

The Swiss-inflicted damage at banks and investment funds is still being tallied. But FXCM’s reversal of fortune has laid bare the risks Niv’s firm and its more than 230,000 customers were taking. Niv and New York-based FXCM didn’t respond to requests for comment.

For most retail investors, trading currencies through brokerages like FXCM is a fool’s game. About 72 percent of customers lose money, according to the National Futures Association.

[Cem pt]

Recentemente dediquei-me em exclusivo ao trading de “commodities” para além da minha profissão do dia a dia, um tipo de Mercado “sui generis” onde as grandes alavancagens podem gerar dias de elevados lucros e risco de pesadas perdas na carteira “hedge fund” de caráter pessoal.

Negociar ações, para quem tiver como objetivo uma valorização rápida da sua conta pessoal, é realmente um desperdício de tempo!

Não admira portanto que tenha passado a ler alguns “sites” que se dedicam exclusivamente a esta modalidade do trading para acompanhar as novidades que possam ter os assuntos ligados a esta atividade apaixonante, para mim a verdadeira Fórmula 1 onde verdadeiras fortunas se constroem e destroem em sessões verdadeiramente mirabolantes e avassaladoras em termos de resultados.

Um dos meus “sites” preferidos nesta modalidade é o “Inside Futures” onde se podem encontrar artigos e conselhos excelentes sobre a melhor forma de abordar a negociação dos futuros de mercadorias.

Fica como exemplo um artigo abaixo que selecionei do CTA Don Dawson, vale a pena reter alguns dos seus prudentes avisos.


----------


Lessons for After You Think You Know How to Trade


For those of you that have been in my classes, you know that I am a big believer in having a trading plan.

Before you start trading with your hard earned money you must have this trading plan to create rules for you to follow in this sometimes unstructured career of trading.

When you have this plan you no longer have to be thinking about what to do next once you enter your trade.

You see the setup and take the trade, knowing exactly where you want to exit with a profit, how you are going to exit, where your protective stop goes and any other event that could happen while you are in this trade.

In a sense you become like a machine, you have taken a majority of the emotions out of your trading because everything is thought out prior to the initial action of taking the trade.

As a professional trader following your plan you will start to see more consistent profits, and that is when you start to notice your days are just blending together.

In another way, each day just seems to be a non-event.

You will have days where you will make money and then there are those you will lose money.

Your winning days will be larger than your losing days, just another day in the office.

No real stress or guessing when it comes time to react, just pure action.

One of my favorite quotes is “The ideal action is one that leaves not a split second between the urge to action and the action itself.”

There are going to be days where you will experience sheer exuberance from days of making more money than you ever thought possible.

And then you will have days where it will be just short of sheer terror from losing more money in one day than you ever thought possible.

The other type of day is the quiet range days, where you end up forcing trades on a boring day.

And then the cycle starts over again.


The keys to handling this cycle are:

- Developing the patience needed to deal with the many boring market days
- Developing your discipline to make sure your expectations do not get overblown on the exuberance days
- Knowing yourself and being prepared ahead of time to deal with the inevitable bad days
- Trading Boring Days

Many new traders come to the Futures markets with very high expectations of making lots of money on a daily basis.

This is understandable based on the reputation of the Futures markets.

Futures are known to be like the Wild West with excitement, volatility, instant wealth; the truth is that there are many days when a trader’s account equity will not change much at all or just stay in a normal range of normal ups and downs.

Traders who use a particular strategy consistently and adhere to very strict money management rules will find that these types of account equity doldrums are quite common.

New traders are known for coming into the market and using a multitude of strategies and have little, if any, money management skills.

In essence, they are just gambling.

This type of trading account will see equity spikes both on the positive and negative side on a very regular basis, not a very good way to run a business.

During the quiet times while you are patiently waiting for a setup based on your trading plan there may be market rallies/declines, major news events or even the “talking heads” calling for a major trend change, but you, as a disciplined trader, will wait for your signal.

As you wait, watching the markets fluctuate on a daily basis will make you feel like you are missing so many opportunities.

It is during these times of sitting on your hands and waiting for your setup that the frustration runs high and the urge to just place a trade becomes stronger and stronger.

This is known as a boredom trade and I can tell you, they will almost all turn into losing trades.

This is the market’s way of pulling in the weak hands to commit their money and then the strong hands reverse the market quickly causing all the scared sheep to run for the exits.

During these quiet times is when you must adhere to your trading plan and not make a trade just because you have not made any money lately.

When you created your trading plan it was based on a back tested strategy and good money management.

Patience and confidence will come from knowing that if you wait for your setup your percentages greatly increase for having a winning trade.

Confidence in your trading plan leads to patience waiting for your setups.



Trading Days of Massive Profits

People coming into the trading arena are typically accustomed to making money by working long hard hours for not much pay to show for their hard work.

So, when they have a day in the market where the skies open and drop more money into their laps than they ever thought possible could very easily create some problems for our trader; much like those who win multi-million dollar lotteries and a few years later are bankrupt.

If we are not conditioned to handle windfalls of fortune we are destined to give it all or worse, even more, back.

Once you have a large win or two you become seduced into thinking this is easy money.

All of a sudden you are thinking to yourself in terms of annualized returns based on this one trade.

Perhaps you are saying, “If I do this 3 times per week and trade 50 weeks per year I will have xx millions of dollars by year end!”

Can you see the dangers here?

Anybody who trades on a regular basis knows that these windfall trading days don’t come along all that often and then, in between them, we have this thing called “equity draw downs.”

Hopefully our new trader here does not go out and start living a lifestyle of this million dollar trader.

These are the kinds of days that lead to inflated expectations of future earnings in the markets.

The euphoria created from these days can lead to an addiction to this fast easy money.

The danger is you may start to ignore your trading plan trying to keep this adrenaline rush alive.

The first thing that starts to happen is you begin to take on much more risk than your plan calls for and it subsequently self-destructs because your plan was not designed to trade this way.

The next thing is you become careless in selecting your trades.

When your account is small you are very particular about your trade selection simply because you don’t have much room to be wrong.

When you have this extra “free easy money” in your account you can very easily become careless.

I would recommend only keeping enough funds in your account to meet margins and have some extra for losses.

Otherwise, I would transfer the excess funds to an interest bearing account that is easily accessible for wire transfers in case you need the funds.

One other event that tends to happen when you have excess funds in your account is that you tend to let your losers run further than you ever would have in the past.

This is a very big red warning flag and is how you can lose more than you made very quickly.

Theoretically, you should not let emotions interfere with your trading.

Thereby, you should not let making money get you all that excited nor should you let losing your money be demoralizing.

Just treat each day the same and try to keep your emotions on a plateau.

All that said, we are all only human and will let our emotions into our daily lives.

The key here again is being prepared for how you will handle this event and having great discipline.

Our trading plans should have a section covering how we will handle these profits.

If you receive this windfall and are still in the position, you really should have a strategy to help see you to the end of the trade.

How many times have you seen greed kick in and not let somebody exit a windfall profit trade and the whole trade turns into a loser? It happens more than you care to know.

Your discipline will be the key in handling these windfall trading days.

As I was saying, we are all human and we will have emotions, the key is not letting this particular trading day have any impact on your future trading sessions.




You Mean I Will Have Losing Days?


After reading that last section, was it a surprise that also losing days come along? Guess what? They do, and they are just a part of doing business in the trading world.

It’s how we handle the losing days that separates us from the losers.

Free WorkshopLosing days may come in a series of days, or perhaps a trade that gets away from us due to a morning gap or major news event, but regardless, you can expect to see those days throughout your trading career.

Once you accept the fact that you are going to have bad days you will need to be prepared to keep your bad days from turning into catastrophic days.

Keep in mind there is a big difference between a bad day and a catastrophic day.

I remember Allan Greenspan’s speech about over exuberance at a time he was trying to slow down the economy and his analogy about our economy growing too fast.

“If the market is going to crash I would rather see it crash at 55 mph than at 120 mph.” Just like a bad day in the market (55 mph) and a catastrophe (120 mph), at least you have a “chance” of walking away from the 55 mph crash. We want to make sure we can come back and trade tomorrow.

A really bad feeling is blowing out your trading account and having to go out and get a real “JOB” to raise equity to come back and trade.

Remember, a catastrophe not only leaves you financially ruined, but also emotionally damaged.

When you come back to trade you will always have that fear of losing in the back of your head and this can lead to future problems pulling the trigger to initiate a trade which leads to being notoriously late entering your trades.

The secret to dealing with these bad days is to be prepared for them. I hear you laughing now, I know, it is easier said than done.

Remember that most new traders come into the business with very high expectations of success and pay very little attention to the risk, chances, or residual effects of bad days.

Two important elements to consider for being prepared are: proper money management and having realistic expectations.

I employ a money management/risk technique I call a financial circuit breaker. I have a maximum loss per trading session built into my trading plan.

If I hit this dollar amount during the session I literally leave the office.

This eliminates the urge to revenge trade. I have found that if you lose in the morning session and come back in the afternoon thinking you are going to make it back, you end up losing even more for the day.

All traders should expect there to be losing days during their trading careers.

One strategy does not fit every market environment, you may be distracted by something unrelated to the markets, you may not feel well, or any other host of events can cause you not to be in sync with the market that day.

Stop throwing your money away and walk away from your desk. This allows you to come back another day and trade. You will be amazed how much better you feel about yourself when you have the discipline to walk away from these types of days. It works, trust me.

[Cem pt]

Recentemente dediquei-me em exclusivo ao trading de “commodities” para além da minha profissão do dia a dia, um tipo de Mercado “sui generis” onde as grandes alavancagens podem gerar dias de elevados lucros e risco de pesadas perdas na carteira “hedge fund” de caráter pessoal.

Negociar ações, para quem tiver como objetivo uma valorização rápida da sua conta pessoal, é realmente um desperdício de tempo!

Não admira portanto que tenha passado a ler alguns “sites” que se dedicam exclusivamente a esta modalidade do trading para acompanhar as novidades que possam ter os assuntos ligados a esta atividade apaixonante, para mim a verdadeira Fórmula 1 onde verdadeiras fortunas se constroem e destroem em sessões verdadeiramente mirabolantes e avassaladoras em termos de resultados.

Um dos meus “sites” preferidos nesta modalidade é o “Inside Futures” onde se podem encontrar artigos e conselhos excelentes sobre a melhor forma de abordar a negociação dos futuros de mercadorias.

Fica como exemplo um artigo abaixo que selecionei do CTA Don Dawson, vale a pena reter alguns dos seus prudentes avisos.


----------


Lessons for After You Think You Know How to Trade


For those of you that have been in my classes, you know that I am a big believer in having a trading plan.

Before you start trading with your hard earned money you must have this trading plan to create rules for you to follow in this sometimes unstructured career of trading.

When you have this plan you no longer have to be thinking about what to do next once you enter your trade.

You see the setup and take the trade, knowing exactly where you want to exit with a profit, how you are going to exit, where your protective stop goes and any other event that could happen while you are in this trade.

In a sense you become like a machine, you have taken a majority of the emotions out of your trading because everything is thought out prior to the initial action of taking the trade.

As a professional trader following your plan you will start to see more consistent profits, and that is when you start to notice your days are just blending together.

In another way, each day just seems to be a non-event.

You will have days where you will make money and then there are those you will lose money.

Your winning days will be larger than your losing days, just another day in the office.

No real stress or guessing when it comes time to react, just pure action.

One of my favorite quotes is “The ideal action is one that leaves not a split second between the urge to action and the action itself.”

There are going to be days where you will experience sheer exuberance from days of making more money than you ever thought possible.

And then you will have days where it will be just short of sheer terror from losing more money in one day than you ever thought possible.

The other type of day is the quiet range days, where you end up forcing trades on a boring day.

And then the cycle starts over again.


The keys to handling this cycle are:

- Developing the patience needed to deal with the many boring market days
- Developing your discipline to make sure your expectations do not get overblown on the exuberance days
- Knowing yourself and being prepared ahead of time to deal with the inevitable bad days
- Trading Boring Days

Many new traders come to the Futures markets with very high expectations of making lots of money on a daily basis.

This is understandable based on the reputation of the Futures markets.

Futures are known to be like the Wild West with excitement, volatility, instant wealth; the truth is that there are many days when a trader’s account equity will not change much at all or just stay in a normal range of normal ups and downs.

Traders who use a particular strategy consistently and adhere to very strict money management rules will find that these types of account equity doldrums are quite common.

New traders are known for coming into the market and using a multitude of strategies and have little, if any, money management skills.

In essence, they are just gambling.

This type of trading account will see equity spikes both on the positive and negative side on a very regular basis, not a very good way to run a business.

During the quiet times while you are patiently waiting for a setup based on your trading plan there may be market rallies/declines, major news events or even the “talking heads” calling for a major trend change, but you, as a disciplined trader, will wait for your signal.

As you wait, watching the markets fluctuate on a daily basis will make you feel like you are missing so many opportunities.

It is during these times of sitting on your hands and waiting for your setup that the frustration runs high and the urge to just place a trade becomes stronger and stronger.

This is known as a boredom trade and I can tell you, they will almost all turn into losing trades.

This is the market’s way of pulling in the weak hands to commit their money and then the strong hands reverse the market quickly causing all the scared sheep to run for the exits.

During these quiet times is when you must adhere to your trading plan and not make a trade just because you have not made any money lately.

When you created your trading plan it was based on a back tested strategy and good money management.

Patience and confidence will come from knowing that if you wait for your setup your percentages greatly increase for having a winning trade.

Confidence in your trading plan leads to patience waiting for your setups.



Trading Days of Massive Profits

People coming into the trading arena are typically accustomed to making money by working long hard hours for not much pay to show for their hard work.

So, when they have a day in the market where the skies open and drop more money into their laps than they ever thought possible could very easily create some problems for our trader; much like those who win multi-million dollar lotteries and a few years later are bankrupt.

If we are not conditioned to handle windfalls of fortune we are destined to give it all or worse, even more, back.

Once you have a large win or two you become seduced into thinking this is easy money.

All of a sudden you are thinking to yourself in terms of annualized returns based on this one trade.

Perhaps you are saying, “If I do this 3 times per week and trade 50 weeks per year I will have xx millions of dollars by year end!”

Can you see the dangers here?

Anybody who trades on a regular basis knows that these windfall trading days don’t come along all that often and then, in between them, we have this thing called “equity draw downs.”

Hopefully our new trader here does not go out and start living a lifestyle of this million dollar trader.

These are the kinds of days that lead to inflated expectations of future earnings in the markets.

The euphoria created from these days can lead to an addiction to this fast easy money.

The danger is you may start to ignore your trading plan trying to keep this adrenaline rush alive.

The first thing that starts to happen is you begin to take on much more risk than your plan calls for and it subsequently self-destructs because your plan was not designed to trade this way.

The next thing is you become careless in selecting your trades.

When your account is small you are very particular about your trade selection simply because you don’t have much room to be wrong.

When you have this extra “free easy money” in your account you can very easily become careless.

I would recommend only keeping enough funds in your account to meet margins and have some extra for losses.

Otherwise, I would transfer the excess funds to an interest bearing account that is easily accessible for wire transfers in case you need the funds.

One other event that tends to happen when you have excess funds in your account is that you tend to let your losers run further than you ever would have in the past.

This is a very big red warning flag and is how you can lose more than you made very quickly.

Theoretically, you should not let emotions interfere with your trading.

Thereby, you should not let making money get you all that excited nor should you let losing your money be demoralizing.

Just treat each day the same and try to keep your emotions on a plateau.

All that said, we are all only human and will let our emotions into our daily lives.

The key here again is being prepared for how you will handle this event and having great discipline.

Our trading plans should have a section covering how we will handle these profits.

If you receive this windfall and are still in the position, you really should have a strategy to help see you to the end of the trade.

How many times have you seen greed kick in and not let somebody exit a windfall profit trade and the whole trade turns into a loser? It happens more than you care to know.

Your discipline will be the key in handling these windfall trading days.

As I was saying, we are all human and we will have emotions, the key is not letting this particular trading day have any impact on your future trading sessions.




You Mean I Will Have Losing Days?


After reading that last section, was it a surprise that also losing days come along? Guess what? They do, and they are just a part of doing business in the trading world.

It’s how we handle the losing days that separates us from the losers.

Free WorkshopLosing days may come in a series of days, or perhaps a trade that gets away from us due to a morning gap or major news event, but regardless, you can expect to see those days throughout your trading career.

Once you accept the fact that you are going to have bad days you will need to be prepared to keep your bad days from turning into catastrophic days.

Keep in mind there is a big difference between a bad day and a catastrophic day.

I remember Allan Greenspan’s speech about over exuberance at a time he was trying to slow down the economy and his analogy about our economy growing too fast.

“If the market is going to crash I would rather see it crash at 55 mph than at 120 mph.” Just like a bad day in the market (55 mph) and a catastrophe (120 mph), at least you have a “chance” of walking away from the 55 mph crash. We want to make sure we can come back and trade tomorrow.

A really bad feeling is blowing out your trading account and having to go out and get a real “JOB” to raise equity to come back and trade.

Remember, a catastrophe not only leaves you financially ruined, but also emotionally damaged.

When you come back to trade you will always have that fear of losing in the back of your head and this can lead to future problems pulling the trigger to initiate a trade which leads to being notoriously late entering your trades.

The secret to dealing with these bad days is to be prepared for them. I hear you laughing now, I know, it is easier said than done.

Remember that most new traders come into the business with very high expectations of success and pay very little attention to the risk, chances, or residual effects of bad days.

Two important elements to consider for being prepared are: proper money management and having realistic expectations.

I employ a money management/risk technique I call a financial circuit breaker. I have a maximum loss per trading session built into my trading plan.

If I hit this dollar amount during the session I literally leave the office.

This eliminates the urge to revenge trade. I have found that if you lose in the morning session and come back in the afternoon thinking you are going to make it back, you end up losing even more for the day.

All traders should expect there to be losing days during their trading careers.

One strategy does not fit every market environment, you may be distracted by something unrelated to the markets, you may not feel well, or any other host of events can cause you not to be in sync with the market that day.

Stop throwing your money away and walk away from your desk. This allows you to come back another day and trade. You will be amazed how much better you feel about yourself when you have the discipline to walk away from these types of days. It works, trust me.

[MVP]

Vendi hoje a posição que tinha de TLT. O meu portfolio fica um pouco desequilibrado temporariamente mas com o fundo em máximos, vou tentar esperar por uma correção para voltar a assumir uma posição. Até lá, reforçar nas commodities e ouro, que estão no vermelho e começar a diversificar para ETF's europeus que não distribuam dividendos, que são de facto uma chatice a nível fiscal

[LTCM]

Data mining is the practice of searching through historical data in an effort to find significant patterns, with which researchers can build a model and make conclusions on how this population will behave in the future.

For example, the so-called January effect, where stock market returns tend to be stronger in the month of January, is a product of data mining: monthly returns on indexes going back 50 to 70 years were sorted and compared against one another, and the patterns for the month of January were noted.

Another well-known conclusion from data mining is the 'Dogs of the Dow' strategy: each January, among the 30 companies in the Dow industrials, buy the 10 with the highest dividend yields. Such a strategy outperforms the market over the long run.

Bookshelves are filled with hundreds of such models that "guarantee" a winning investment strategy. Of course, to borrow a common industry phrase, "past performance does not guarantee future results".

[frugal]

Qual risco Frugal?

Presumo que ele esteja a falar de possíveis falências de corretoras.
Mas como os nossos ativos não pertencem às corretoras, em princípio podemos transferir-los para outra corretora caso isso aconteça.

Qual risco Frugal?

A incerteza do que poderá acontecer aos emissores dos ETFs, ao intermediário da broker e depois ainda à broker, para uma carteira de Longo prazo é muita gente no meio do papel.

Cumprimentos.

[LTCM]

[ruicarlov]

Qual risco Frugal?

Presumo que ele esteja a falar de possíveis falências de corretoras.
Mas como os nossos ativos não pertencem às corretoras, em princípio podemos transferir-los para outra corretora caso isso aconteça.

[Mouro_Emprestado]

Qual risco Frugal?

[frugal]

Como se tratam de carteiras a 30+ anos, como contornam o risco de problemas com as corretoras ?

[LTCM]

"Of SigFig users, 28% had at least 10% of their portfolios in cash. That would have also dragged down performance."

Não justifica tudo claro, mas é bom saber os dados todos e como os estudos são feitos. Mas sabes que concordo com a ideia geral tranmitida.

http://fortune.com/2015/01/06/stock-market-2014-losers/

Não me parece que tenha que se justificar seja o que for. O gráfico é claro.

O investidor médio fez 4,2%

Um portefolio 60/40 fez 10.6%

O S&P fez 13,5%

Agora se o investidor médio tem 10%, 20% ou 99% em cash isso é irrelevante.

Falta lá o valor referente ao investidor médio activo que, julgo, ronda os 2%.

[VirtuaGod]

"Of SigFig users, 28% had at least 10% of their portfolios in cash. That would have also dragged down performance."

Não justifica tudo claro, mas é bom saber os dados todos e como os estudos são feitos. Mas sabes que concordo com a ideia geral tranmitida.

http://fortune.com/2015/01/06/stock-market-2014-losers/

[LTCM]

[casdio]

Fiz com os dados do trustnetoffshore, como podes ver. Parti do princípio que os valores (por UP) estavam corretos

Eu fiz estes testes por curiosidade, apenas isso. Não defendo (nem irei defender tão cedo ) que ter um portfolio só com ações é a melhor opção possível.
Mas quis ver o que acontecia a uma pessoa que tivesse estofo para aguentar o crash de 2008 e continuasse a investir até agora

Tal como eu disse, para alguém que tenha uma carteira só com ações, o mais difícil é aguentar-se nos meses/anos mais negativos. Coisa que, no Permanent Portfolio, já é muito mais fácil.

[Mouro_Emprestado]

Casdio, esse teu teste não me parece estar correcto.

456 acções do MSCI World, a 01-07-2007, custavam-te € 12.290 (ao preço de € 26,95 por acção).

Nota que testei no justetf.com ter apenas aquele activo em carteira e, de facto, a 31 de Dezembro de 2014, o seu valor seria de € 36,2k (cerca de mais € 900 face ao PP).

Contudo, se fizeres o teste sem ter qualquer tipo de reforço, a 31-12-2014 terias apenas € 13,6k, contra € 16,2k dum PP sem ter qualquer tipo de rebalanceamento (sim também fiz este teste )-

Cuidado com os backtests exaustivos, podem-te levar a tirar conclusões erradas (o melhor backtest seria shortar em 2008 e depois apostar em força no S&P 500 a partir de 2009, mas lá está, só não acerta no euromilhões à quarta ou ao sábado quem não quer ).

[casdio]

Como se comportaria um Portfolio Permanente desde 2007 a 2015, permitindo assim observar o mesmo em período de crash bolsista e subsequente bull?


Apenas 2 dos anos foram negativos, explicados pelo crash nas acções em 2008 (onde, mesmo assim, a carteira apenas teve um decréscimo de 3,31%!) e no ouro em 2013. Melhor do que isso foi obter-se um ganho acumulado de 65,6% (uma média ponderada de 6,7% anual), para um desvio-padrão de 7,89%.

Por outras palavras, para um investimento total de €24k (€ 10k + €2k * 7), a 31 de Dezembro teriam uma carteira a valer € 35,2k.

Fiz a mesma experiência apenas com um ETF (Vanguard Total Stock Market, VTI) e obtive os seguintes resultados:


Não consigo obter os dados de % anuais (como tu tens) pq não encontrei maneira de o fazer no trustnetoffshore (e no justetf não consegui encontrar este ETF). Escolhi o VTI só pq estava a olhar para ele antes de ler o teu post, só isso.

Tem resultados brutos melhores, mas com muito mais volatilidade. Mais logo faço o mesmo para um ETF qualquer que siga o mercado mundial todo e meto aqui os resultados. Mas, digo eu, deverão rondar os 35-40k de valor atual de carteira

edit:
Peguei no ETF que tinhas para ações e fiz o teste com ele:



Eu sei que estes meus testes não fazem sentido comparando-os ao teu, pq tu querias testar um método mais seguro de locação de % e eu meti tudo em stocks. Mas fiz isto pq acho que, desde que uma pessoa se aguente no mercado, quase qualquer coisa serve para ter bons retornos. O problema é aguentar-se no mercado quando o vê cair 20 ou 30% num ano (e aí esse Permanent Portfolio é muito melhor)

[Mouro_Emprestado]

Eu por acaso estava à espera que se retratassem publicamente quando se enganam (não sei se de propósito, ou se por mero lapso) e ao invés de reconhecerem o erro (errar humano é), ainda tentam passar um atestado de imbecilidade aos outros.

A isso chamo desonestidade intelectual, mas nada que me surpreenda (quais fanáticos do futebol ).

[O Alquimista]

Não abrangi a totalidade do texto mas, daquilo que percebi, depreendendo que o teor não se enquadre dentro das regras (supra referidas), estabelecidas pelo Mouro_Emprestado.

Isso do FI Alquimia 2015 é algum tópico sobre FIGA’s e/ou ETF’s?

Na qualidade de especulador discricionário e dado o objectivo do jogo, algumas das regras estabelecidas não se dirigem a mim. Não obstante isso, decidi manifestar, em devido tempo, a minha adesão ao desafio, por me enquadrar naquilo que se diz ser gestão activa. Como vou à procura de obter, no médio ou longo prazo, uma valorização de 2 dígitos bem gordinha, há 2 coisas com que não me preocupo: comissões e impostos. Quando for rico, aí, sim, preocupar-me-ei com essas questões. Até lá sou pobre e pago tudo o que um pobre tem de pagar para tentar tornar-se rico.

O FI Alquimia 2015 é o nome que dei ao meu fundo de investimento (informal), que se destina à continuação da demonstração de uma específica técnica de trading/investimento e que tem o propósito de obter, no prazo de 1 ano, uma valorização de 100%, à vista de toda a gente (mas com certas restrições dado que o pior que me pode acontecer é conseguir o objectivo).

Se eu dissesse, criando ou não um tópico próprio, que em 2014 ganhei n %, qual seria a reacção da audiência? Preferi cativá-la em tempo real criando o FI Alquimia 2015. Quem tiver interesse poderá acompanhar as ideais que vou encontrando, sendo da responsabilidade de cada um prosseguir com a análise, pouco importando se recorrendo à minha técnica ou a outras.

[LTCM]

Curioso, curioso é o renascimento deste tema por banda dos que, ao que me é dado a ver, são apaniguados da (talvez impropriamente) dita gestão passiva. Só podem andar distraídos. Ou então são muito desconfiados. Se a memória não me atraiçoa, fui dos primeiros a aceitar o desafio. Aliás, na qualidade de especulador passivo na selecção dos melhores investimentos e agressivo na tomada das stoploss, já dei início à contenda há muito tempo e sem necessidade de qualquer "tiro oficial". Contenda que, bem vistas as coisas, não é contra ninguém, apenas contra mim mesmo. Provas? Vejam:
- a amat, sugerida no meu tópico oportunidades especulativas II com bastante antecedência, vai com mais de 20% de valorização;
- a criação do FI Alquimia 2015, que tem por objectivo duplicar o capital (aquando da sua criação até falei em jogo).
Ainda querem mais?
Portanto, se alguém está "atrasado" não sou eu. E, para que não hajam dúvidas, até prescindo da minha amat e começo do zero.

O perigo que vejo neste tipo de eventos - que não existe nos jogos oficiais como por ex. o conhecido jogo da bolsa - é o chamado parasitismo. Para bom entendedor meia palavra basta. É com esta "dificuldade" que tenho de lidar quando falo do FI Alquimia 2015. Sou solidário, benemérito até, para os verdadeiramente necessitados. Parvo é que não sou (ou tento não voltar a ser) e isto não é o DeBorla.

Não abrangi a totalidade do texto mas, daquilo que percebi, depreendendo que o teor não se enquadre dentro das regras (supra referidas), estabelecidas pelo Mouro_Emprestado.

Isso do FI Alquimia 2015 é algum tópico sobre FIGA’s e/ou ETF’s?